Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100086
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$357,203.00
Summary
Will an improved land surface model enhance seasonal prediction of drought? This project aims to increase the predictability of seasonal droughts that cause major socio-economic losses in rural Australia. The capacity to predict drought, and in particular its impacts on the land, is currently limited by the low skill of forecast models. Using novel observations, the project expects to quantify the vulnerability of Australian agricultural lands to seasonal droughts. The new knowledge will then be ....Will an improved land surface model enhance seasonal prediction of drought? This project aims to increase the predictability of seasonal droughts that cause major socio-economic losses in rural Australia. The capacity to predict drought, and in particular its impacts on the land, is currently limited by the low skill of forecast models. Using novel observations, the project expects to quantify the vulnerability of Australian agricultural lands to seasonal droughts. The new knowledge will then be used to modify land processes in the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal prediction system to better reflect Australian conditions. This project is expected to improve forecasts of high impact droughts, crucial to mitigate socio-economic risks, and should benefit decision-making in agriculture and other industries.Read moreRead less
How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to A ....How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to Australian heatwave impacts on human health, key knowledge should support more targeted and accurate mitigation policies, minimising the strain on resources when future heatwaves occur. This should help in safeguarding future generations from deadly impacts of heatwaves.Read moreRead less
Past climate and environmental impacts on Great Barrier Reef paleoecology. This project aims to investigate the interconnected processes that led to past reef growth and demise. The iconic Great Barrier Reef and reefs globally are under threat. Yet reefs appear to have undergone cycles of death and recovery, though the causes are poorly understood. This project will reconstruct past climate, rainfall, water quality, coral bleaching and reef ecology feedbacks across Great Barrier Reef death event ....Past climate and environmental impacts on Great Barrier Reef paleoecology. This project aims to investigate the interconnected processes that led to past reef growth and demise. The iconic Great Barrier Reef and reefs globally are under threat. Yet reefs appear to have undergone cycles of death and recovery, though the causes are poorly understood. This project will reconstruct past climate, rainfall, water quality, coral bleaching and reef ecology feedbacks across Great Barrier Reef death events to establish which environmental stressors and paleoclimate variations are most critical for reef health. The outcomes will better constrain long term coral reef dynamics and provide significant benefits to those who manage reefs globally, since the Great Barrier Reef covers the full range of reef environments.Read moreRead less
Back to the Future: Interglacial Warming and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet . The Antarctic is highly-sensitive to abrupt changes caused by the passing of tipping points within the climate system. Crucially, the instrumental record is too short to resolve major uncertainties surrounding future warming. The Last Interglacial (125,000 yrs ago) was 2°C warmer than today and experienced 6-11 m higher global sea levels. The role of Antarctica is vital for constraining sea-level projections. This Austra ....Back to the Future: Interglacial Warming and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet . The Antarctic is highly-sensitive to abrupt changes caused by the passing of tipping points within the climate system. Crucially, the instrumental record is too short to resolve major uncertainties surrounding future warming. The Last Interglacial (125,000 yrs ago) was 2°C warmer than today and experienced 6-11 m higher global sea levels. The role of Antarctica is vital for constraining sea-level projections. This Australian-led international project aims to determine the mechanisms and impacts of past interglacial Antarctic warming up to 2°C (relative to pre-industrial). Innovative techniques integrating horizontal ice cores and high resolution marine records will help identify polar tipping points and better plan for impacts in Australia.Read moreRead less
The Antarctic Slope Current in a warming climate. Melting Antarctic ice sheets are responsible for 28% of global sea level rise in recent decades, and can contribute more than 1 metre of sea level rise by year 2100, and a staggering 15 metres by 2500. Increased glacial melt rates are best understood by studying changes in the circulation of water around the Antarctic coastline. The combination of physical processes that must be resolved in this region places a high demand on ocean observations a ....The Antarctic Slope Current in a warming climate. Melting Antarctic ice sheets are responsible for 28% of global sea level rise in recent decades, and can contribute more than 1 metre of sea level rise by year 2100, and a staggering 15 metres by 2500. Increased glacial melt rates are best understood by studying changes in the circulation of water around the Antarctic coastline. The combination of physical processes that must be resolved in this region places a high demand on ocean observations and modelling systems. This project uses a series of high-resolution ocean and ice experiments, cross-validated with observations, to provide a deeper understanding of how waters at the Antarctic margin respond to both anthropogenic and natural climate forcing.Read moreRead less
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme ....ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme and early career researcher mentoring to transform Australia’s capacity to predict climate extremes. This research is expected to make Australia more resilient to climate extremes and minimise risks from climate extremes to the Australian environment, society and economy.Read moreRead less
Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interac ....Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interactions, whilst models do not represent the functional characteristics and adaptions of eucalypts. This project will develop a strong evidence- and process-based understanding to quantify the functional behaviour of drought-adapted Eucalyptus species and leverage this insight to make future model projections.Read moreRead less
Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitatio ....Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitations. Any model failings identified will feed into model development strategies and support enhanced decision-making informed by regional climate model simulations.Read moreRead less
The Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the Earth Energy Budget. This project aims to quantify the tropical cyclone contribution to the earth energy budget to understand whether tropical cyclones feed back to the climate system. While existing literature focuses exclusively on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone variability, this project switches this viewpoint around. One possible outcome is a better understanding of long-term tropical cyclone variability. This is particularly im ....The Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the Earth Energy Budget. This project aims to quantify the tropical cyclone contribution to the earth energy budget to understand whether tropical cyclones feed back to the climate system. While existing literature focuses exclusively on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone variability, this project switches this viewpoint around. One possible outcome is a better understanding of long-term tropical cyclone variability. This is particularly important for tropical cyclone vulnerable regions including the Australian east coast and the oil and gas industry off the Northwest Shelf. Furthermore, the anticipated knowledge gained by this project will inform international understanding on the impacts of tropical cyclones to the overall climate system.Read moreRead less