The relationship between firm innovation and performance and the role of the government. Productivity growth in Australia has plateaued. Although Federal and State Governments employ a range of different innovation policies designed to stimulate productivity growth, little is known about the effects these programs, and of innovation more generally, on firm performance. One reason why this relationship is unknown relates to the availability of firm-level data. This project, will take advantage of ....The relationship between firm innovation and performance and the role of the government. Productivity growth in Australia has plateaued. Although Federal and State Governments employ a range of different innovation policies designed to stimulate productivity growth, little is known about the effects these programs, and of innovation more generally, on firm performance. One reason why this relationship is unknown relates to the availability of firm-level data. This project, will take advantage of unique access to a dataset provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics which enables us to observe the activities of every firm in Australia. Using these data and appropriate econometric techniques, the study will examine the effect of a range of government policies designed to stimulate innovation and productivity growth. Read moreRead less
Solving and estimating dynamic models of strategic interaction. This project aims to investigate how firms interact with each other through time and how these interactions drive both the operation of, and value created in, economic markets. While recent theoretical models predominantly capture the complexity of these dynamic interactions, the methods for testing these models’ predictions against observed data do not. Instead, they are based on a range of simplifying assumptions that undermine th ....Solving and estimating dynamic models of strategic interaction. This project aims to investigate how firms interact with each other through time and how these interactions drive both the operation of, and value created in, economic markets. While recent theoretical models predominantly capture the complexity of these dynamic interactions, the methods for testing these models’ predictions against observed data do not. Instead, they are based on a range of simplifying assumptions that undermine the reliability of their analysis. This project will develop statistical and computational methods to better understand observed economic behaviour. By allowing the effects of proposed economic interventions and regulations ex ante, this project will support the development of more efficient and better-targeted policies in every area of the economy.Read moreRead less
Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research w ....Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research will facilitate the design of policies and regulations by regulatory authorities that need to evaluate new financial products, their associated risks and their impacts on the financial markets.Read moreRead less
Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessmen ....Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessment of the distributional impact of a wide range of possible reforms, including how the outcomes of any policy change will affect disadvantaged sections of our society, whether different generations will be fairly treated, and the impact by gender.Read moreRead less
Assessing the Social and Fiscal Policy Implications of an Ageing Population. The 2002 Treasury Inter-Generational Report predicted major social and fiscal challenges during the next 40 years as a result of population ageing. Unlike Europe, the US and Canada, Australia has not yet developed the modelling tools to help it assess the current and future distributional consequences of the required forthcoming changes in social and fiscal policy. This project will develop the necessary modelling infra ....Assessing the Social and Fiscal Policy Implications of an Ageing Population. The 2002 Treasury Inter-Generational Report predicted major social and fiscal challenges during the next 40 years as a result of population ageing. Unlike Europe, the US and Canada, Australia has not yet developed the modelling tools to help it assess the current and future distributional consequences of the required forthcoming changes in social and fiscal policy. This project will develop the necessary modelling infrastructure for the Commonwealth and for Australia. It will create a sophisticated decision support capacity that can be used to assess the long-term impact of policy change and the likely future retirement incomes and other characteristics of Australians.Read moreRead less
Risk management and funding structures: an econometric panel data analysis of health insurance in Australia. This research analyses how subsidies to Australian health insurance, both public and private, vary by income, risk of loss, age and region. It will provide the necessary information to guide future health funding by analysing the equity and efficiency of existing subsidies and alternative subsidies related to individuals' risk of high health costs.
Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and internati ....Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and international competitiveness. Innovative methods driven by data from complex financial and geological systems will integrate price volatility risk and orebody uncertainty in a real options framework, providing holistic, rigorous measurement of mining venture risk. Xstrata Queensland Ltd will strongly support and participate in research training of an identified candidate to deliver discoveries to the wider industry.Read moreRead less
High-dimensional models with a change point. This project aims to provide a set of estimation and inference procedures for high dimensional quantile regression. Statistical models of threshold regression with change or tipping points are used to explore social issues, including changes in oil and gas prices, effective dosage of drugs and the racial mix in neighbourhoods. To date, using low numbers of variables, the findings have been limited. Big data makes it possible and desirable to solve mor ....High-dimensional models with a change point. This project aims to provide a set of estimation and inference procedures for high dimensional quantile regression. Statistical models of threshold regression with change or tipping points are used to explore social issues, including changes in oil and gas prices, effective dosage of drugs and the racial mix in neighbourhoods. To date, using low numbers of variables, the findings have been limited. Big data makes it possible and desirable to solve more detailed models to provide more accurate results. The quality and accuracy of the project’s results are expected to help governments devise well informed and appropriate policies for social issues.Read moreRead less
New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evo ....New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evolution over time. In so doing, they enable both accurate inferences regarding the dynamic structure of the data to be drawn and accurate forecasts of future event counts to be produced.Read moreRead less
Robust Productivity Measurement: An Econometric Distance Function Approach. Accurate measures of productivity are required in a range of economic analyses. For example, in the assessment of the success of microeconomic reforms, or in price-cap regulation of utility and transport infrastructure firms. In this project we investigate the use of econometric distance functions as a means of obtaining improved productivity measures. This new approach addresses the main criticisms of alternative ap ....Robust Productivity Measurement: An Econometric Distance Function Approach. Accurate measures of productivity are required in a range of economic analyses. For example, in the assessment of the success of microeconomic reforms, or in price-cap regulation of utility and transport infrastructure firms. In this project we investigate the use of econometric distance functions as a means of obtaining improved productivity measures. This new approach addresses the main criticisms of alternative approaches, such as the single output restriction in the production function approach, the optimisation assumptions embedded in both the value dual approach and the Törnqvist index approach, and the statistical noise criticism of the data envelopment analysis approach.Read moreRead less