Quantitative Analysis of Systemic Risk in Insurance. This project aims to achieve a contemporary and comprehensive quantitative analysis of systemic risk in insurance. The significance lies in narrowing the gap between the studies of systemic risk in banking and insurance. Expected outcomes include the construction of insurance/reinsurance networks to formalise systemic risk, the analysis of the role of network integration, and the development of pricing frameworks to entail a systemic risk prem ....Quantitative Analysis of Systemic Risk in Insurance. This project aims to achieve a contemporary and comprehensive quantitative analysis of systemic risk in insurance. The significance lies in narrowing the gap between the studies of systemic risk in banking and insurance. Expected outcomes include the construction of insurance/reinsurance networks to formalise systemic risk, the analysis of the role of network integration, and the development of pricing frameworks to entail a systemic risk premium. The project will benefit insurers and regulators by providing a forward-looking approach to monitoring and assessing insurance risk during a systemic crisis. These important original contributions to insurance risk management will help establish Australia’s global leadership in systemic risk.Read moreRead less
Forecasting and Financing Healthy Ageing and Aged Care in Australia. This project aims to quantify future risks of chronic illness and functional disability in retirement, proposing financing strategies aimed at enhancing healthy ageing, lifestyle quality and aged care provisions. The project devotes to devising a framework integrating government and private sector participation in funding health costs which increase significantly in older ages. The expected outcome includes sustainable retireme ....Forecasting and Financing Healthy Ageing and Aged Care in Australia. This project aims to quantify future risks of chronic illness and functional disability in retirement, proposing financing strategies aimed at enhancing healthy ageing, lifestyle quality and aged care provisions. The project devotes to devising a framework integrating government and private sector participation in funding health costs which increase significantly in older ages. The expected outcome includes sustainable retirement income scenarios for easing fiscal pressure from social initiatives such as age pension and aged care financing at the same time improving living standards for seniors. The project expects to place Australia at the forefront of research on sustainable solutions to financial challenges facing retirees.Read moreRead less
Extreme Value Theory Approaches to Insurance in a Catastrophic Environment. Recent decades are marked by numerous significant natural (climate change) or man-made (financial crises) catastrophes, which have significantly altered the landscape of the insurance industry. These have potentially significant negative impacts on the availability and affordability of insurance, and hence on the capability and capacity of households and businesses to take risks and be competitive. This project endeavour ....Extreme Value Theory Approaches to Insurance in a Catastrophic Environment. Recent decades are marked by numerous significant natural (climate change) or man-made (financial crises) catastrophes, which have significantly altered the landscape of the insurance industry. These have potentially significant negative impacts on the availability and affordability of insurance, and hence on the capability and capacity of households and businesses to take risks and be competitive. This project endeavours to establish progressive approaches (using extreme value theory) to the challenges faced by insurance in such a catastrophic environment. They will enhance the financial stability and competitivity of the Australian economy, and further establish its global leadership in dealing with climate changes and catastrophes.Read moreRead less
Stein's method for probability approximation. Data of counts in time, such as incoming calls in telecommunications and the clusters of palindromes in a family of herpes-virus genomes, arise in an extraordinarily diverse range of fields from science to business. These problems can be modelled by sums of random variables taking values 0 and 1 in probability theory, thus permitting approximate calculations which are often good enough in practice. This project will obtain such approximate solutions ....Stein's method for probability approximation. Data of counts in time, such as incoming calls in telecommunications and the clusters of palindromes in a family of herpes-virus genomes, arise in an extraordinarily diverse range of fields from science to business. These problems can be modelled by sums of random variables taking values 0 and 1 in probability theory, thus permitting approximate calculations which are often good enough in practice. This project will obtain such approximate solutions and estimate the errors involved. Applications include analysis of data in insurance, finance, flood prediction in hydrology.Read moreRead less
Boundary Crossing Analysis for Random Processes with Applications to Risk Management. Effective management of environmental, financial and superannuation investment risks is vitally important for Australia. Results of the project will add to the theoretical foundations of risk management and provide new computational tools for specialists working in the areas of financial engineering, insurance, superannuation funds. These tools will assist in improving risk profile evaluation and developing new ....Boundary Crossing Analysis for Random Processes with Applications to Risk Management. Effective management of environmental, financial and superannuation investment risks is vitally important for Australia. Results of the project will add to the theoretical foundations of risk management and provide new computational tools for specialists working in the areas of financial engineering, insurance, superannuation funds. These tools will assist in improving risk profile evaluation and developing new statistical control charts for security monitoring of epidemics, networks intrusions and other potentially dangerous changes. The research will also give Australia a competitive advantage in the area of education related to stochastic processes, mathematical finance, control theory and their applications.Read moreRead less
The impact of payout policy changes on firm value and short selling activities across different taxation regimes. Brealey et al (2011) assert that we don't know enough yet about how payout policy varies across firms. This project examines the information content of dividend changes and repurchase programs and the long-term market impact of these announcements, controlling for the substitution effect of repurchases/dividends in different institutional/tax regimes. This project also examines wheth ....The impact of payout policy changes on firm value and short selling activities across different taxation regimes. Brealey et al (2011) assert that we don't know enough yet about how payout policy varies across firms. This project examines the information content of dividend changes and repurchase programs and the long-term market impact of these announcements, controlling for the substitution effect of repurchases/dividends in different institutional/tax regimes. This project also examines whether short sellers manifest abnormal behaviour around the announcement of dividend changes and repurchase programs, and whether earnings are manipulated upwards to maintain the dividend or downwards prior to the announcement of repurchase programs. The findings will be of major interest to academics, managers, investors and regulators.Read moreRead less
An international study of seasoned equity offerings: long term returns, earnings management, liquidity, ownership structure, and financial crisis. This study will provide critical insights into the impact of alternative mechanisms for seasoned equity offerings on liquidity and firm value. Considering the lack of confidence in financial markets during the financial crisis, this study will have significant implications regarding the current use and regulation of seasoned equity offerings.
Loss-based Bayesian Prediction. This project proposes a new paradigm for prediction. Using state-of-the-art computational methods, the project aims to produce accurate, fit for purpose, predictions which, by design, reduce the loss incurred when the prediction is inaccurate. Theoretical validation of the new predictive method, without reliance on knowledge of the correct statistical model, is an expected outcome, as is an extensive numerical assessment of its performance in empirical settings. T ....Loss-based Bayesian Prediction. This project proposes a new paradigm for prediction. Using state-of-the-art computational methods, the project aims to produce accurate, fit for purpose, predictions which, by design, reduce the loss incurred when the prediction is inaccurate. Theoretical validation of the new predictive method, without reliance on knowledge of the correct statistical model, is an expected outcome, as is an extensive numerical assessment of its performance in empirical settings. The new paradigm should produce significant benefits for all fields in which the consequences of predictive inaccuracy are severe. Problems that lead to substantial economic, financial or environmental loss if predictions are incorrect will be given particular attention.Read moreRead less
The validation of approximate Bayesian computation. This project aims to establish the theoretical validity of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and to develop diagnostic methods for assessing its reliability in empirical applications. Given the increased complexity of modern statistical models, new ways of conducting statistical inference are needed. Approximate Bayesian computation is a new statistical tool. This project expects its findings will be useful in all fields where complex phen ....The validation of approximate Bayesian computation. This project aims to establish the theoretical validity of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and to develop diagnostic methods for assessing its reliability in empirical applications. Given the increased complexity of modern statistical models, new ways of conducting statistical inference are needed. Approximate Bayesian computation is a new statistical tool. This project expects its findings will be useful in all fields where complex phenomena feature and approximate methods are the only feasible way of understanding those phenomena.Read moreRead less
Semi-parametric bootstrap-based inference in long-memory models. Given the long lead times involved in implementing economic decisions, a clear understanding of the long-term dynamics driving key variables is crucial. This project will produce significant advances in the analysis of long-range dependence, with decisions underpinned by more accurate and robust statistical information as a consequence.