Chief executive officer pay, incentives, talent and risk-taking: Excessive pay, regulation and the global financial crisis. The Prime Minister has requested the regulators, APRA and Treasury, to come up with rules that would prevent a repeat of the trillion dollar bailouts and guarantees to the financial sector and banks at risk of failure. Excessive pay and risk-taking by bank executives shoulder made the blame for the global crisis that has already cost Australian investors and taxpayers a siz ....Chief executive officer pay, incentives, talent and risk-taking: Excessive pay, regulation and the global financial crisis. The Prime Minister has requested the regulators, APRA and Treasury, to come up with rules that would prevent a repeat of the trillion dollar bailouts and guarantees to the financial sector and banks at risk of failure. Excessive pay and risk-taking by bank executives shoulder made the blame for the global crisis that has already cost Australian investors and taxpayers a sizeable portion of the nation's wealth. The project will greatly assist the regulators in this task. It will also identify compensation practices that reward good long-term performance without excessive pay. This could dramatically raise the performance of Australian companies and ameliorate the problem of dissatisfied investors and taxpayers.Read moreRead less
Innovations in Enterprise Risk Management: Risk Aggregation, Dependence, and Efficiency. Enterprise risk management is of critical importance to the successful management of business corporations. The savings from the integrated measurement and management of risk at the enterprise level allowing for diversification in business activities is massive. The Australian insurance and actuarial science profession is highly regarded internationally. Innovative contributions to the rapidly developing are ....Innovations in Enterprise Risk Management: Risk Aggregation, Dependence, and Efficiency. Enterprise risk management is of critical importance to the successful management of business corporations. The savings from the integrated measurement and management of risk at the enterprise level allowing for diversification in business activities is massive. The Australian insurance and actuarial science profession is highly regarded internationally. Innovative contributions to the rapidly developing area of enterprise risk management will benefit Australia by maintaining its high profile at an international level in this newly emerging area. This will lead to increased demand at an international level for Australian graduate students and international research students wishing to study at Australian universities in these disciplines.Read moreRead less
Investing over the Life Cycle. This project will investigate efficiency questions raised by the private and public management of assets within defined contribution pension plans. Because investment risk in such plans falls on the contributing household, they need to be managed with care. The first phase of the project will examine optimal equity investments on behalf of contributing households. The second phase will consider the scope and limits of market-timing endeavours involving switches bet ....Investing over the Life Cycle. This project will investigate efficiency questions raised by the private and public management of assets within defined contribution pension plans. Because investment risk in such plans falls on the contributing household, they need to be managed with care. The first phase of the project will examine optimal equity investments on behalf of contributing households. The second phase will consider the scope and limits of market-timing endeavours involving switches between broad asset classes. The third phase will consider optimal currency hedging. The final phase will consider the optimal taxation of pension fund assets at different points in the household's life cycle.Read moreRead less
Risk Management for Bonds, Currencies and Commodities. Understanding maturity-structure policy is a neglected topic. It needs research before we can determine whether public debt policy should accommodate the emerging needs of self-funded retirees - for long-term debt, new issues of index bonds, and 'survivor' bonds. Planning for annuity-rate risk has lagged far behind the sales of complying pensions. Over 2003 the Australian dollar rose by 34 percent, revealing major deficiencies in the standar ....Risk Management for Bonds, Currencies and Commodities. Understanding maturity-structure policy is a neglected topic. It needs research before we can determine whether public debt policy should accommodate the emerging needs of self-funded retirees - for long-term debt, new issues of index bonds, and 'survivor' bonds. Planning for annuity-rate risk has lagged far behind the sales of complying pensions. Over 2003 the Australian dollar rose by 34 percent, revealing major deficiencies in the standard advice on managing currency risks to retirement incomes. Uninsured disruptions to electricity supply have been an issue (eg in California), and demonstrate a need for innovative financial instruments that cushion and spread the costs.Read moreRead less
Modelling the Risk of Defined Contribution Superannuation Plans. The provision of retirement income is undergoing significant change - a shift from unfunded social security towards private funding and, within the privately funded sector, a shift from defined-benefit (DB) to defined-contribution (DC) plans. The research will develop a new framework, based on stochastic simulation, to undertake innovative critical analyses of the riskiness of DC superannuation plans. It extends existing work by ....Modelling the Risk of Defined Contribution Superannuation Plans. The provision of retirement income is undergoing significant change - a shift from unfunded social security towards private funding and, within the privately funded sector, a shift from defined-benefit (DB) to defined-contribution (DC) plans. The research will develop a new framework, based on stochastic simulation, to undertake innovative critical analyses of the riskiness of DC superannuation plans. It extends existing work by the inclusion of insitutional, regulatory and labour market features of the superannuation system. The results of the research, based on more finite modelling and greater economic accuracy, will be vital in informing retirement policy.Read moreRead less
Security in Retirement: Forecasting and Managing Macro Investment Risks. In his Boyer Lectures Ian Macfarlane, former RBA governor, observed that risks once borne by employers or governments are in the process of being transferred to households. Retirement incomes are a case in point. Not only do most households belong to accumulation funds which shift investment risks to members, but exposure to growth assets (equities and property) in the typical account is in the 60% - 70% range, even in the ....Security in Retirement: Forecasting and Managing Macro Investment Risks. In his Boyer Lectures Ian Macfarlane, former RBA governor, observed that risks once borne by employers or governments are in the process of being transferred to households. Retirement incomes are a case in point. Not only do most households belong to accumulation funds which shift investment risks to members, but exposure to growth assets (equities and property) in the typical account is in the 60% - 70% range, even in the case of retirees. Our project will focus on the forecasting and management of economy-wide risks, as distinct from the equity risks or credit risks attached to investments in particular companies.Read moreRead less
The Role of Directors in CorporateTakeovers. This research deals with one of the causes and consequences of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for boards of directors of companies involved in M&As. The Federal Government's Corporate Law and Economic Reform Program (CLERP), Paper No:3 states that corporate governance practices by Australian companies should be continuously monitored by the Australian Stock Exchange and relevant industries and professional bodies. Our research on the extent to which ....The Role of Directors in CorporateTakeovers. This research deals with one of the causes and consequences of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for boards of directors of companies involved in M&As. The Federal Government's Corporate Law and Economic Reform Program (CLERP), Paper No:3 states that corporate governance practices by Australian companies should be continuously monitored by the Australian Stock Exchange and relevant industries and professional bodies. Our research on the extent to which directors get penalised and/or rewarded for acquisition decisions depending on the outcomes of the M&A, contribute towards this monitoring.Read moreRead less
Information Content of Order Flows in the Foreign Exchange and Commodities Markets. The Australian economy depends heavily on resources and commodities markets. The Australian dollar is the sixth most actively traded currency in the world and is more volatile than all other major currencies except the Japanese yen. The proposed study seeks to improve volatility forecasts and hedging effectiveness for foreign exchange and commodity risks, which will create significant benefits for the Australian ....Information Content of Order Flows in the Foreign Exchange and Commodities Markets. The Australian economy depends heavily on resources and commodities markets. The Australian dollar is the sixth most actively traded currency in the world and is more volatile than all other major currencies except the Japanese yen. The proposed study seeks to improve volatility forecasts and hedging effectiveness for foreign exchange and commodity risks, which will create significant benefits for the Australian economy, corporations, and investors. In addition, the project will enhance investment performance and risk management practice of financial institutions, improving the overall safety of our financial system. It will also foster research culture and increase research capacity of Australian financial institutions.Read moreRead less
Modelling non-linear price dynamics of primary commodities that are affected by seasonality, significant storage costs, and slow adjustment. Australia's economy relies substantially on exports of commodities. However, recent volatility of commodity prices has created tremendous uncertainties for traders, producers and consumers of those commodities. This adversely affects our national economy through the disruption of agricultural and mining production, and also more broadly impacts on investmen ....Modelling non-linear price dynamics of primary commodities that are affected by seasonality, significant storage costs, and slow adjustment. Australia's economy relies substantially on exports of commodities. However, recent volatility of commodity prices has created tremendous uncertainties for traders, producers and consumers of those commodities. This adversely affects our national economy through the disruption of agricultural and mining production, and also more broadly impacts on investment, employment and gross domestic income. This research will model more accurately the complex dynamics of primary commodity prices and their inter-market linkages, which will allow traders, producers and consumers to better forecast commodity price movements and protect themselves through inventory management, hedging and long-run production planning.Read moreRead less
Forecasting Risk Thresholds for Portfolio Management and Regulation. The project will develop new models and methods for dynamic risk modelling, assessment of portfolio risk, and forecasting of portfolio risk thresholds. These novel methods will have extensive applications across investment portfolios for banks and financial institutions globally. The techniques will feature a dynamic updating of risk estimates, and more accurate forecasting of portfolio risk, the correlations of portfolio asset ....Forecasting Risk Thresholds for Portfolio Management and Regulation. The project will develop new models and methods for dynamic risk modelling, assessment of portfolio risk, and forecasting of portfolio risk thresholds. These novel methods will have extensive applications across investment portfolios for banks and financial institutions globally. The techniques will feature a dynamic updating of risk estimates, and more accurate forecasting of portfolio risk, the correlations of portfolio asset classes, and Value at Risk (VaR) thresholds. The innovative methods and models will permit both financial institutions and regulatory authorities to model VaR thresholds more accurately, and enable investment managers to regulate and benchmark their portfolios more effectively against international best practice.
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