Improved theory and practice in econometric modelling of nonlinear spatial time series. Modern Australia faces many challenges in economic and global climate changes, which require advanced statistical technologies in modeling and forecasting of econometric spatial time series data. This project will provide flexible models and methods that enable practitioners to more accurately measure and manage economic and climatic risks.
Safeguarding coral reef fisheries for future food security. This Fellowship aims to address the vulnerability of coral reef fisheries in Australia and the Indo-Pacific by identifying fishery targets that benefit human nutrition and will persist despite declining coral habitats and rising water temperature. This project will advance knowledge on coral and fish responses to increasingly frequent marine heatwaves, using novel methodologies rooted in ecological modelling, experimental marine biology ....Safeguarding coral reef fisheries for future food security. This Fellowship aims to address the vulnerability of coral reef fisheries in Australia and the Indo-Pacific by identifying fishery targets that benefit human nutrition and will persist despite declining coral habitats and rising water temperature. This project will advance knowledge on coral and fish responses to increasingly frequent marine heatwaves, using novel methodologies rooted in ecological modelling, experimental marine biology and climate forecasting. Expected outcomes include (i) a comprehensive toolbox for improved management of coral reefs and associated fisheries in Australia and beyond, and (ii) an integrated socio-ecological model for predicting coral reef fishery responses under environmental change.Read moreRead less
Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon release ....Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon released into the atmosphere – burial of carbon in sediments. This project will develop a computer model representation of this coupled carbon-climate-life system and test this against the geological record, explore the causes and consequences of carbon release events and extinctions as well as how the ocean floor delivery and preservation of organic carbon responds.Read moreRead less
Methods for establishing cumulative CO2 emission budgets for Australia. Limiting global warming requires curbing cumulative carbon emissions. However, we do not know how the quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and maximal warming is modulated by other climate-relevant gases (for example, sulphur oxide or Methane) nor have we quantified the relationship in sufficient detail for aligning national and international policy strategies. This project will develop new m ....Methods for establishing cumulative CO2 emission budgets for Australia. Limiting global warming requires curbing cumulative carbon emissions. However, we do not know how the quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and maximal warming is modulated by other climate-relevant gases (for example, sulphur oxide or Methane) nor have we quantified the relationship in sufficient detail for aligning national and international policy strategies. This project will develop new methods to establish global emission budgets for various climate targets and likelihoods. Options for Australia’s share will be quantified on the basis of effort-sharing proposals. This research is vital for Australian policy makers, the energy sector, and the public in order to plan for coming decades.Read moreRead less
New techniques and invariants in low-dimensional topology. The aim of this project is to introduce and apply new methods and invariants in the field of low-dimensional topology by developing parametrised and equivariant enhancements of Seiberg-Witten theory and Floer homology. These new refined invariants, made possible by recent advances in gauge theory, will be more powerful than existing ones, enabling the detection of new exotic phenomena. Expected outcomes include effective means for distin ....New techniques and invariants in low-dimensional topology. The aim of this project is to introduce and apply new methods and invariants in the field of low-dimensional topology by developing parametrised and equivariant enhancements of Seiberg-Witten theory and Floer homology. These new refined invariants, made possible by recent advances in gauge theory, will be more powerful than existing ones, enabling the detection of new exotic phenomena. Expected outcomes include effective means for distinguishing families of spaces, measuring their complexity and new obstructions for their existence. The new invariants and techniques will lead to the resolution of some open problems in low-dimensional topology and enhance Australia's reputation as a world leader in this field.Read moreRead less
Breaking Gondwana: interplay between tectonics, climate and resources. The project aims to reconstruct 250 million years of landscape evolution in response to rifting and break-up of the Gondwana supercontinent, using the innovative approach of combining regional thermochronology with global plate tectonic models. From these reconstructions, the time-integrated record of exhumation and erosion at the continental margins will be revealed at an unprecedented scale. The main expected outcome will b ....Breaking Gondwana: interplay between tectonics, climate and resources. The project aims to reconstruct 250 million years of landscape evolution in response to rifting and break-up of the Gondwana supercontinent, using the innovative approach of combining regional thermochronology with global plate tectonic models. From these reconstructions, the time-integrated record of exhumation and erosion at the continental margins will be revealed at an unprecedented scale. The main expected outcome will be a deep time archive of the relationships between tectonic forcing, continental erosion and the global climate, which may assist predictions and debate on future climate change. The outcomes will also provide economic benefits as they will inform on the exhumation and preservation of (critical) mineral resources.Read moreRead less
Integrating rifts and swell in the mathematics of ice shelf disintegration. Antarctic ice-shelf disintegrations have the alarming potential to cause rapid sea level rise, through accelerated discharge of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and initiating runaway Ice Sheet destabilisations. The project aims to develop a mathematical model of swell-induced ice-shelf vibrations in a coupled ocean–shelf 3D framework, focusing on interactions between vibrations and the rift networks that characterise outer shelf ....Integrating rifts and swell in the mathematics of ice shelf disintegration. Antarctic ice-shelf disintegrations have the alarming potential to cause rapid sea level rise, through accelerated discharge of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and initiating runaway Ice Sheet destabilisations. The project aims to develop a mathematical model of swell-induced ice-shelf vibrations in a coupled ocean–shelf 3D framework, focusing on interactions between vibrations and the rift networks that characterise outer shelf margins before disintegration. Accurate, efficient solutions will be developed by fusing powerful approximation theories, and validated by numerical solutions. The model will be combined with state-of-the-art data to predict trends in Antarctica’s remaining ice shelves and indicate potential future disintegrations.Read moreRead less
Developing mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure and inference. Infectious diseases remain a major contributor to mortality and illness worldwide. The potential for future severe pandemics also continues to present a substantial threat to our health and well-being. Mathematics and statistics are increasingly becoming part of the arsenal used by governments to combat the invasion and spread of infectious diseases. I ....Developing mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure and inference. Infectious diseases remain a major contributor to mortality and illness worldwide. The potential for future severe pandemics also continues to present a substantial threat to our health and well-being. Mathematics and statistics are increasingly becoming part of the arsenal used by governments to combat the invasion and spread of infectious diseases. In such work, three themes have emerged as having the potential to revolutionise the modelling of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure (both age and spatial), and inference. This project will develop state-of-the-art techniques, at the interface of these themes, of critical importance to understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases.Read moreRead less
Flow structures and transport: predictability and control. Moving flow structures (the boundary of an eddy, the flow interface between two fluids) are crucial in fluid mixing and in the transport of heat, pollutants and nutrients. This project will analyse their roles in improving predictions of spreading extents and rates for geophysical-scale problems, and in controlling transport at the micro-scale. Inaccuracies in currently available numerical diagnostics for transport prediction will be com ....Flow structures and transport: predictability and control. Moving flow structures (the boundary of an eddy, the flow interface between two fluids) are crucial in fluid mixing and in the transport of heat, pollutants and nutrients. This project will analyse their roles in improving predictions of spreading extents and rates for geophysical-scale problems, and in controlling transport at the micro-scale. Inaccuracies in currently available numerical diagnostics for transport prediction will be comprehensively evaluated via comparison with recent exact models. Analytical methods for quantifying transport under unsteady flow protocols will be developed, and used to answer questions on controlling transport in microfluidic applications in conjunction with experimentalists.Read moreRead less
Holonomy groups and special structures in pseudo-Riemannian geometry. The project studies mathematical models used in physical theories, such as general relativity and string theory, to create a global picture of the universe. The outcomes will enhance the role that Australia plays in these developments and contribute to the mathematical knowledge which lies at the foundations of modern technologies.