Supporting Entry and Growth of Australian Businesses via Tax and Transfers. This project aims to characterise the optimal tax treatment of business income for insurance and efficiency purposes. Using new data for Australia, the project expects to first identify key determinants of businesses creation, growth and exit, before and after COVID-19. In light of those determinants, the project expects to develop original macroeconomic models integrating firm dynamics into optimal taxation frameworks. ....Supporting Entry and Growth of Australian Businesses via Tax and Transfers. This project aims to characterise the optimal tax treatment of business income for insurance and efficiency purposes. Using new data for Australia, the project expects to first identify key determinants of businesses creation, growth and exit, before and after COVID-19. In light of those determinants, the project expects to develop original macroeconomic models integrating firm dynamics into optimal taxation frameworks. Expected outcomes include formulating fiscal policies that provide adequate stimulus to businesses, by balancing public insurance and income inequality. This should deliver evidence-based inputs to promote Australia's post-pandemic recovery, through the design of a fairer and more efficient business tax and transfer system.Read moreRead less
Modelling Income Distributions over Space and Time: 1985-2010. The aim of this project is to develop and use interpolation and extrapolation methods, designed to overcome data scarcity, to estimate annual income distributions for countries, regions and the world for the period 1985 to 2010, facilitating measurement and comparison of changes in inequality, per capita income, poverty, and pro-poor growth, at national, regional and global levels. Reliable estimates of these welfare measures provide ....Modelling Income Distributions over Space and Time: 1985-2010. The aim of this project is to develop and use interpolation and extrapolation methods, designed to overcome data scarcity, to estimate annual income distributions for countries, regions and the world for the period 1985 to 2010, facilitating measurement and comparison of changes in inequality, per capita income, poverty, and pro-poor growth, at national, regional and global levels. Reliable estimates of these welfare measures provide valuable information for policy advisors and other researchers interested in growth and welfare of society.Read moreRead less
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL120100034
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,002,560.00
Summary
Black swans and unknown unknowns: financial markets and their interaction with the macroeconomy in the presence of unanticipated contingencies. Unforeseen contingencies, also called 'black swans' or 'unknown unknowns' pose serious difficulties for decisionmakers. This project will examine how financial regulation can be improved to reduce the vulnerability of the financial system and the macroeconomy to unforeseen shocks.
Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are ....Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are i) measures of systemic risk and ii) a theoretical framework to study the optimality of aggregate versus sectoral stabilization policies. Benefits include a better understanding of macroeconomic fluctuations in Australia and proposed economic policies to mitigate large and persistent declines in employment and GDP.Read moreRead less
How does alcohol sponsorship of sport affect drinking behaviour and attitudes in at risk youth? Implications for public policy and the sport industry. This project responds to national and international research priorities by examining the controversial association between sponsorship of sport by alcohol brands and consumption behaviour in target youth and sportspeople. The research is large scale and multidisciplinary, and will impact policy development and the business of sport in Australia.
Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influenc ....Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influences, it is likely that it will originate elsewhere in the world. In delivering a greater understanding of the interdependencies in international business cycles, the project will assist economic policymakers in their efforts to ameliorate Australia's next recession. Read moreRead less
Reliability of purchasing power parities from the World Bank. This project aims to provide an econometric framework to estimate purchasing power parities (PPPs) and a method to compute standard errors associated with the World Bank’s International Comparison Programme (ICP)’s PPPs. The ICP regularly compiles and publishes estimates of PPPs of currencies and real incomes. These results are used for study of global inequality and poverty; macroeconomic analysis; the Human Development Index; and cr ....Reliability of purchasing power parities from the World Bank. This project aims to provide an econometric framework to estimate purchasing power parities (PPPs) and a method to compute standard errors associated with the World Bank’s International Comparison Programme (ICP)’s PPPs. The ICP regularly compiles and publishes estimates of PPPs of currencies and real incomes. These results are used for study of global inequality and poverty; macroeconomic analysis; the Human Development Index; and cross-country productivity comparisons. However, no estimates of ICP PPPs’ reliability are available. Results from this project are likely to improve the quality of widely used data sets including the Penn World Tables and the University of Queensland International Comparison Database relevant to banking.Read moreRead less
An Improved Framework for Analysing the Fiscal Implications of Population Ageing. The Commonwealth Government's 'National Strategy for an Ageing Australia' explicitly acknowledged the potential for intergenerational conflict in Australia as relatively fewer young people must provide for the consumption of a growing proportion of retired people. The Intergenerational Report (IGR) in 2002 was an important step in national planning to avoid such a conflict. The proposed project seeks to address maj ....An Improved Framework for Analysing the Fiscal Implications of Population Ageing. The Commonwealth Government's 'National Strategy for an Ageing Australia' explicitly acknowledged the potential for intergenerational conflict in Australia as relatively fewer young people must provide for the consumption of a growing proportion of retired people. The Intergenerational Report (IGR) in 2002 was an important step in national planning to avoid such a conflict. The proposed project seeks to address major shortcomings in the IGR and provide an improved framework for future IGRs. The project addresses two Priority Goals within the Designated National Research Priority 2. These are: 'Ageing well, ageing productively' and 'strengthening Australia's social and economic fabric'.Read moreRead less
Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a sec ....Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a second contribution, it is expected to construct an algorithm to permit inference leading to outputs useful to policy analysts. The model is intended to be parsimonious, which facilitates the development of a time-varying version to allow the model to evolve with the economy and provide better policy guidance.Read moreRead less
Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less