Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and their effect on economic performance: new theory, empirics, and an application to Australia. Both fiscal and monetary policy are powerful tools that affect the wellbeing of individuals. Even if current policies are 'responsible', the social cost of uncertainty about the future is extremely high - to which the 2004 'high interest rates under Labour' election campaign or current heated fiscal debates in the US and EU testify. Our analysis will contribute to ....Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and their effect on economic performance: new theory, empirics, and an application to Australia. Both fiscal and monetary policy are powerful tools that affect the wellbeing of individuals. Even if current policies are 'responsible', the social cost of uncertainty about the future is extremely high - to which the 2004 'high interest rates under Labour' election campaign or current heated fiscal debates in the US and EU testify. Our analysis will contribute to the reduction of the social cost by identifying the institutional setting that is robust to 'bad' policymakers, i.e. one in which socially optimal policies are 'institutionalized' (legislated) rather than resting with individuals. Such arrangements are further likely to stimulate investment and economic growth.Read moreRead less
A Neo-Heckscher-Ohlin Model of Trade with Endogenous Production Patterns. The ongoing debate regarding the expected benefits of the recent trade agreement with the United States exemplifies that few aspects of international trade are well understood. Using inframarginal analysis, an approach developed by co-investigator 1, we expect to be able to advance our understanding in this field by producing what is arguably the most generalised model of trade. This will constitute an important accomplish ....A Neo-Heckscher-Ohlin Model of Trade with Endogenous Production Patterns. The ongoing debate regarding the expected benefits of the recent trade agreement with the United States exemplifies that few aspects of international trade are well understood. Using inframarginal analysis, an approach developed by co-investigator 1, we expect to be able to advance our understanding in this field by producing what is arguably the most generalised model of trade. This will constitute an important accomplishment that is likely to attract both international academic interest and international research funds to Australian research. In addition, as our model will be calibrated on the basis of our domestic production characteristics, our work will shed light on the socially optimum trade policy directions for Australia.Read moreRead less
Economics of continuous-time financial markets and endogenous pricing. This research has the potential to benefit society by improving the accuracy of pricing in securities markets. First, because the research leads to specific predictions about the interaction of prices for different type of assets, it should lead to more accurate pricing across markets, such as housing, stocks and bonds, which currently function largely independently. Second, it should lead to more accurate pricing of derivati ....Economics of continuous-time financial markets and endogenous pricing. This research has the potential to benefit society by improving the accuracy of pricing in securities markets. First, because the research leads to specific predictions about the interaction of prices for different type of assets, it should lead to more accurate pricing across markets, such as housing, stocks and bonds, which currently function largely independently. Second, it should lead to more accurate pricing of derivatives in the situations where the exercise price of the derivatives differs significantly from the current price of the underlying stock.Read moreRead less
Economics of Incomplete Markets and Pricing in Equilibrium. This research has the potential to benefit society by improving the accurary of pricing in securities markets. First, because the research leads to specific predictions about the interaction of prices for different type of assets, it should lead to more accurate pricing across markets, such as housing, stocks and bonds, which currently function largely independentlty. Second, it should lead to more accurate pricing of derivatives in the ....Economics of Incomplete Markets and Pricing in Equilibrium. This research has the potential to benefit society by improving the accurary of pricing in securities markets. First, because the research leads to specific predictions about the interaction of prices for different type of assets, it should lead to more accurate pricing across markets, such as housing, stocks and bonds, which currently function largely independentlty. Second, it should lead to more accurate pricing of derivatives in the situations where the execise price of the derivatives differs significantly from the current price of the underlying stock.Read moreRead less
Construction of utility functions from observations of consumer behaviour with application to resource modelling and water management strategies. The optimisation techniques developed will be on the forefront of applied mathematical sciences and will increase the prestige of the Australian mathematical community. The expected results will also be of value because they can be used to improve the CGE modelling technique. The implementation of the CGE model of one of Victoria's agricultural regions ....Construction of utility functions from observations of consumer behaviour with application to resource modelling and water management strategies. The optimisation techniques developed will be on the forefront of applied mathematical sciences and will increase the prestige of the Australian mathematical community. The expected results will also be of value because they can be used to improve the CGE modelling technique. The implementation of the CGE model of one of Victoria's agricultural regions will be used to improve the accuracy of regional economic models and will contribute to efficient regional resource management. This has the potential to positively affect the economic growth and employment in the region. The expected outcomes of the project are especially important taking into account the need for predicting the socio-economic consequences of the 1994 COAG water reforms. Read moreRead less
Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowle ....Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowledge in econometrics and statistics, and enhanced tools for program evaluation and policy assessment in empirical causal analysis using observational data. The project falls into the category of smarter information use and is relevant to any national priority areas where policy interventions require assessment.Read moreRead less
Bayesian copula modelling of multivariate dependence: getting to grips with data that is far from normal. Copula models are very popular tools that are changing the way analysts deal with information rich data in fields as diverse as marketing, finance and transport studies. This project aims to improve and extend these tools, so that more accurate and reliable models can be employed, resulting in improved evidence-based decision-making.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE170101183
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$322,404.00
Summary
Information sharing in networks and the allocation of medical appointments. The project aims to research social networks and the normative allocation of invisible goods. It will study information sharing in social networks and the allocation of consultant led appointments to patients. This project is intended to benefit society, public policy and health by showing how social networks’ design options affect users’ welfare and the network owner’s revenue.
Micro-panel data with non-linear error components. This project aims to develop methods for panel data models with heterogeneous marginal effects and discrete choice outcomes, controlling for unobserved common factors and nonlinear error components; and apply the methodologies to analyse alcohol-fuelled violence and drug-related harm in Australia. The project lies at the forefront of advances in econometrics, and the outcomes are expected to broaden and deepen Australia’s knowledge base. Empiric ....Micro-panel data with non-linear error components. This project aims to develop methods for panel data models with heterogeneous marginal effects and discrete choice outcomes, controlling for unobserved common factors and nonlinear error components; and apply the methodologies to analyse alcohol-fuelled violence and drug-related harm in Australia. The project lies at the forefront of advances in econometrics, and the outcomes are expected to broaden and deepen Australia’s knowledge base. Empirical outcomes should inform and evaluate evidence-based policy interventions for crime prevention, and influence policy making about public transport and economic growth.Read moreRead less
Partial Identification of Treatment Effects in Binary Response Models with Applications in Health Economics. The broad objectives of this project are to study the issues of partial identification in the context of models involving binary endogenous treatment variables and binary outcomes, and to investigate the implications for econometric estimation of policy effects in empirical economics. Identified sets for treatment effects for several Australian health economic applications will be estimat ....Partial Identification of Treatment Effects in Binary Response Models with Applications in Health Economics. The broad objectives of this project are to study the issues of partial identification in the context of models involving binary endogenous treatment variables and binary outcomes, and to investigate the implications for econometric estimation of policy effects in empirical economics. Identified sets for treatment effects for several Australian health economic applications will be estimated and compared with conventional point identified estimates. Performance of alternative bound estimators will be examined and particular attention given to the issue of the weakness of the instruments and the size of the bounds. The new theoretical developments in this literature have significant implications for empirical economics.Read moreRead less