Family Responses to Economic Shocks and Policy Reforms over the Life Cycle. Australian social and economic policy requires a sophisticated understanding of the interaction of public policy with recent demographic trends, including the growth in fragile families and the ageing population. This project aims to develop innovative dynamic models of family decision-making to produce new estimates of the impact of significant Australian public policy reforms on labour supply, fertility, family formati ....Family Responses to Economic Shocks and Policy Reforms over the Life Cycle. Australian social and economic policy requires a sophisticated understanding of the interaction of public policy with recent demographic trends, including the growth in fragile families and the ageing population. This project aims to develop innovative dynamic models of family decision-making to produce new estimates of the impact of significant Australian public policy reforms on labour supply, fertility, family formation, and retirement decisions. Structural econometric models will be used to simulate the effects of variation in the design of the Parenting Payment Single, Age Pension and other programs. The project findings are expected to generate economic and social policy recommendations.Read moreRead less
Bayesian choice modelling. Discrete choice models are important as they provide tools to help understand choice processes of decision makers. It remains a challenge to specify models with covariance structures flexible enough to capture complex patterns of cross-substitution between choices while being able to capture heterogeneity present in individual behaviour. We will develop a Bayesian approach to choice modelling that uses covariance selection to overcome these problems. This will train re ....Bayesian choice modelling. Discrete choice models are important as they provide tools to help understand choice processes of decision makers. It remains a challenge to specify models with covariance structures flexible enough to capture complex patterns of cross-substitution between choices while being able to capture heterogeneity present in individual behaviour. We will develop a Bayesian approach to choice modelling that uses covariance selection to overcome these problems. This will train researchers and raise the profile of Australia in an active research area that is important in the social sciences; substantive applications will be in health economics, but developments will also be relevant to cognate areas of biostatistics, epidemiology, and ecology.Read moreRead less
Robust Empirical Analysis of Poverty and Inequality in Australia. The project aims to improve our understanding of economic poverty and inequality in Australia, and contribute new method to the field of distributional analysis. The empirical analysis of consumption poverty and inequality will highlight the critical methodological assumptions underlying our perceptions of poverty, and provide an evaluation of the effectiveness of a range of programs targeted to the poor. The analysis of economic ....Robust Empirical Analysis of Poverty and Inequality in Australia. The project aims to improve our understanding of economic poverty and inequality in Australia, and contribute new method to the field of distributional analysis. The empirical analysis of consumption poverty and inequality will highlight the critical methodological assumptions underlying our perceptions of poverty, and provide an evaluation of the effectiveness of a range of programs targeted to the poor. The analysis of economic inequality in Australia will determine if recent trends are due to increasing globalisation, and whether national programs were effective in ameliorating international influences. This research will ultimately contribute to more effective poverty alleviation and income support programs.Read moreRead less
Rank-dependent choice equilibrium. This project aims to develop and test a new statistical theory of games, Rank-Dependent Choice Equilibrium (RDCE), which has the potential to unify and improve on existing approaches where the extreme reliance on perfect decision making and perfect foresight has raised doubts about their empirical relevance. The project intends to develop the theoretical foundations of RDCE, explore its relation with various parametric approaches, and evaluate RDCE via meta stu ....Rank-dependent choice equilibrium. This project aims to develop and test a new statistical theory of games, Rank-Dependent Choice Equilibrium (RDCE), which has the potential to unify and improve on existing approaches where the extreme reliance on perfect decision making and perfect foresight has raised doubts about their empirical relevance. The project intends to develop the theoretical foundations of RDCE, explore its relation with various parametric approaches, and evaluate RDCE via meta studies and stress tests. Expected outcomes of RDCE include a paradigm shift in game theory, resulting in broader acceptance and adoption of statistical game theory and to more robust policy recommendations.Read moreRead less
Designing Efficient and Equitable Voting Mechanisms. The most commonly used method for collective decision making, majority voting, is generally not efficient as it does not allow voters to express the intensity of their preferences. In addition, majority voting suffers from the tyranny of the majority, i.e. the risk of repeatedly excluding minority groups from representation. A final downside of majority voting is its winner-take-all nature, i.e. it provides no compensation for losing voters. T ....Designing Efficient and Equitable Voting Mechanisms. The most commonly used method for collective decision making, majority voting, is generally not efficient as it does not allow voters to express the intensity of their preferences. In addition, majority voting suffers from the tyranny of the majority, i.e. the risk of repeatedly excluding minority groups from representation. A final downside of majority voting is its winner-take-all nature, i.e. it provides no compensation for losing voters. This project concerns the design of alternative mechanisms that avoid these shortcomings and robustly deliver efficient and equitable outcomes. The project develops the theory underlying these novel mechanisms, tests them in a range of environments, and delivers an implementation for practical use.
Read moreRead less
Introspection, Learning, and Equilibrium in Games: Theory and Experiment. Game theory is increasingly being used in the social sciences, but the extreme reliance on perfect decision making and perfect foresight has raised doubts about its empirical relevance. This scepticism is reinforced by laboratory evidence showing behaviour patterns that are systematically biased away from game-theoretic predictions. This project concerns the development and testing of models more descriptive of actual huma ....Introspection, Learning, and Equilibrium in Games: Theory and Experiment. Game theory is increasingly being used in the social sciences, but the extreme reliance on perfect decision making and perfect foresight has raised doubts about its empirical relevance. This scepticism is reinforced by laboratory evidence showing behaviour patterns that are systematically biased away from game-theoretic predictions. This project concerns the development and testing of models more descriptive of actual human behaviour. One aim is to deliver hybrid models able to reproduce interesting patterns of first-period play (introspection), time-series data in repeated games (learning), and systematic departures from static equilibrium. Another aim is to apply a successful hybrid to improve the design of economic and social institutions.Read moreRead less
Effects of Maternal Work, Day Care Use and Other Investments in Children on Child Cognitive Outcomes. Later life outcomes due to investments by individuals and/or society in children is crucial to many countries, including Australia. Appropriate policy responses require reliable and valid estimates of the likely effects of individual investments and policy interventions. Despite many research reports on this topic, almost all do not control for selection bias (eg, high achieving mothers tend to ....Effects of Maternal Work, Day Care Use and Other Investments in Children on Child Cognitive Outcomes. Later life outcomes due to investments by individuals and/or society in children is crucial to many countries, including Australia. Appropriate policy responses require reliable and valid estimates of the likely effects of individual investments and policy interventions. Despite many research reports on this topic, almost all do not control for selection bias (eg, high achieving mothers tend to put children in day care), which is a feature of our work. Thus, our empirical results will have major policy implications, and will suggest ways to obtain similar results for Australian environments. Read moreRead less
Risk management and funding structures: an econometric panel data analysis of health insurance in Australia. This research analyses how subsidies to Australian health insurance, both public and private, vary by income, risk of loss, age and region. It will provide the necessary information to guide future health funding by analysing the equity and efficiency of existing subsidies and alternative subsidies related to individuals' risk of high health costs.
Understanding the Saving Behaviour of Australian Households: Private Retirement Provision and the Policy of Forced Saving. The outcomes from the research on Australian retirement saving behaviour will generate a range of national benefits. First, the collaboration of researchers across institutions, and internationally, will enhance and promote Australian research skills. Second, Australian research will be will be placed at the forefront of an important, international field. Third, the research ....Understanding the Saving Behaviour of Australian Households: Private Retirement Provision and the Policy of Forced Saving. The outcomes from the research on Australian retirement saving behaviour will generate a range of national benefits. First, the collaboration of researchers across institutions, and internationally, will enhance and promote Australian research skills. Second, Australian research will be will be placed at the forefront of an important, international field. Third, the research will make fundamental contributions to the evidence base for the design of public policies to ensure Australians have access to adequate resources in retirement. This is an urgent public policy concern due to the rapid ageing of the Australian population: the fraction aged over 65 years is forecast to double from 10% to 20% over the next 40 years.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE210101085
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$323,692.00
Summary
Stability of Multilateral Agreements and the Limits to Cooperation. This project aims to analyze the stability of multilateral agreements. This is expected to be done by building upon the cooperative approach in game theory that focuses on groups as the primary decision makers. Moving the unit of analysis from an individual to a group has the advantage of widening the applicability of game theoretic methods to social issues. Consequently, the project is expected to enhance our understanding of h ....Stability of Multilateral Agreements and the Limits to Cooperation. This project aims to analyze the stability of multilateral agreements. This is expected to be done by building upon the cooperative approach in game theory that focuses on groups as the primary decision makers. Moving the unit of analysis from an individual to a group has the advantage of widening the applicability of game theoretic methods to social issues. Consequently, the project is expected to enhance our understanding of how and why cooperation can be sustained in some of the most pressing challenges faced by the society today that require extensive international collaboration to overcome, such as environmental change, trade disputes, and arms-control.
Read moreRead less