Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empiric ....Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empirical support for this view and study the consequences of imperfectly credible policy. We characterize how monetary policy (conventional and unconventional) and fiscal policy can be used to greatest effect in low interest rate environments and quantify the welfare implications for Australia. Read moreRead less
Optimal Tax Policy Meets Modern Labour Supply Theory. This project aims to generate new evidence on the optimal design of the federal tax system. Specifically, it seeks to determine the optimal combination of taxes on income, capital and consumption to raise necessary revenue while minimizing disincentives for work and capital formation. The project is innovative because, for the first time, it does optimal tax calculations using models that account fully for how taxes affect human capital inves ....Optimal Tax Policy Meets Modern Labour Supply Theory. This project aims to generate new evidence on the optimal design of the federal tax system. Specifically, it seeks to determine the optimal combination of taxes on income, capital and consumption to raise necessary revenue while minimizing disincentives for work and capital formation. The project is innovative because, for the first time, it does optimal tax calculations using models that account fully for how taxes affect human capital investment and labour force participation. It aims to enhance or understanding of the optimal mix between taxes on earnings, capital and consumption, and the optimal degree of income tax progressivity. The benefit is a tax system better designed to promote economic efficiency and human capital formation. Read moreRead less
Fiscal policy and unemployment in an open economy. This project aims to improve our understanding of the impact of commodity price changes. Over the past two decades, Australia has experienced unprecedented fluctuations in commodity prices. The fiscal position and potential of the economy depends on the extent to which commodity price changes are temporary or permanent. This project will uncover empirical regularities between commodity prices, unemployment across sectors and measures of fiscal p ....Fiscal policy and unemployment in an open economy. This project aims to improve our understanding of the impact of commodity price changes. Over the past two decades, Australia has experienced unprecedented fluctuations in commodity prices. The fiscal position and potential of the economy depends on the extent to which commodity price changes are temporary or permanent. This project will uncover empirical regularities between commodity prices, unemployment across sectors and measures of fiscal policy. The project will build structural models of unemployment which will be estimated and used to assess implications for unemployment and budget deficits of commodity price shocks and to study the optimal design of fiscal policy. The project will benefit the conduct of economic policy in Australia.Read moreRead less
Talent Mismatch: Evidence from Australian Administrative Tax Records. The project aims to study the skill composition of the Australian workforce. Changes in the macroeconomic and technology environments make it hard to predict skill shortage. The project expects to develop macroeconomic models quantifying skill-mismatch of university graduates, identify sources of mismatch, highlight gender and generational differences, and estimate associated costs to Australia. The expected outcomes are to he ....Talent Mismatch: Evidence from Australian Administrative Tax Records. The project aims to study the skill composition of the Australian workforce. Changes in the macroeconomic and technology environments make it hard to predict skill shortage. The project expects to develop macroeconomic models quantifying skill-mismatch of university graduates, identify sources of mismatch, highlight gender and generational differences, and estimate associated costs to Australia. The expected outcomes are to help shape policy recommendations on the funding of tertiary education in a changing economic climate. This should provide significant benefits to Australians, as policies shaping the tertiary education system affect individual income and the aggregate economy by determining labour supply and taxpayers' financial burden.Read moreRead less
Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are ....Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are i) measures of systemic risk and ii) a theoretical framework to study the optimality of aggregate versus sectoral stabilization policies. Benefits include a better understanding of macroeconomic fluctuations in Australia and proposed economic policies to mitigate large and persistent declines in employment and GDP.Read moreRead less
Child Dental Benefit Policies and the Health of Australian Children. This project aims to examine the early effects of two recent initiatives by the Australian government to improve children’s dental health by providing funds to cover essential dental services for children from disadvantaged families. It explores the factors affecting eligible children’s access to benefits from these initiatives and identifies the causal impacts of these changed health care financing arrangements on children’s c ....Child Dental Benefit Policies and the Health of Australian Children. This project aims to examine the early effects of two recent initiatives by the Australian government to improve children’s dental health by providing funds to cover essential dental services for children from disadvantaged families. It explores the factors affecting eligible children’s access to benefits from these initiatives and identifies the causal impacts of these changed health care financing arrangements on children’s consumption of dental services, indicators of oral health and general health, and other indicators of cognitive and non-cognitive development. Using advanced econometric techniques and panel datasets, this project is expected to contribute to the development of effective policies for promoting health and wellbeing.Read moreRead less
Equitable funding for health care: integrating social outcomes. This project will develop an innovative method for decision makers to achieve more equitable allocation of scarce health care resources. Health programs and treatments affect not just health (survival & health related quality of life) but also broader aspects of well-being (e.g. dignity, autonomy, safety). Our current methods for evaluating value for money in health do not capture these aspects. The project will provide benefit by a ....Equitable funding for health care: integrating social outcomes. This project will develop an innovative method for decision makers to achieve more equitable allocation of scarce health care resources. Health programs and treatments affect not just health (survival & health related quality of life) but also broader aspects of well-being (e.g. dignity, autonomy, safety). Our current methods for evaluating value for money in health do not capture these aspects. The project will provide benefit by allowing health system decision makers to achieve fairer allocation of resources across diverse health conditions, interventions and patient populations. Expected outcomes include a new tool for assessing interventions and measuring population health incorporating both health and social outcomes. Read moreRead less
Historical frontier violence: drivers, legacy and the role of truth-telling. This project aims to build data to identify the historical factors that incited frontier violence; quantify the legacy on communities today and conduct fieldwork to understand how historical trauma is transmitted across generations. This project expects to develop new knowledge on the circumstances and legacy of settlement and the origins of gaps in life prospects between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Our e ....Historical frontier violence: drivers, legacy and the role of truth-telling. This project aims to build data to identify the historical factors that incited frontier violence; quantify the legacy on communities today and conduct fieldwork to understand how historical trauma is transmitted across generations. This project expects to develop new knowledge on the circumstances and legacy of settlement and the origins of gaps in life prospects between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Our expectation is that this will increase public acceptance of the circumstances of settlement and the need to make amends. This project should help increase public support for truth-telling and better relations between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians, a vital step towards reconciliation and healing the nation. Read moreRead less