Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empiric ....Economic policy when interest rates are zero. This Project studies economic policy when interest rates are zero. Low interest rate environments constrain monetary policy because central banks cannot lower rates to raise demand. We exploit recent international experience with zero rates to understand why new policies have had mixed success. We argue different outcomes across countries arise because of different degrees of credibility and familiarity with new policy initiatives. We provide empirical support for this view and study the consequences of imperfectly credible policy. We characterize how monetary policy (conventional and unconventional) and fiscal policy can be used to greatest effect in low interest rate environments and quantify the welfare implications for Australia. Read moreRead less
Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and their effect on economic performance: new theory, empirics, and an application to Australia. Both fiscal and monetary policy are powerful tools that affect the wellbeing of individuals. Even if current policies are 'responsible', the social cost of uncertainty about the future is extremely high - to which the 2004 'high interest rates under Labour' election campaign or current heated fiscal debates in the US and EU testify. Our analysis will contribute to ....Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and their effect on economic performance: new theory, empirics, and an application to Australia. Both fiscal and monetary policy are powerful tools that affect the wellbeing of individuals. Even if current policies are 'responsible', the social cost of uncertainty about the future is extremely high - to which the 2004 'high interest rates under Labour' election campaign or current heated fiscal debates in the US and EU testify. Our analysis will contribute to the reduction of the social cost by identifying the institutional setting that is robust to 'bad' policymakers, i.e. one in which socially optimal policies are 'institutionalized' (legislated) rather than resting with individuals. Such arrangements are further likely to stimulate investment and economic growth.Read moreRead less
Distorted Beliefs and Asset Price Disconnect Puzzles. Asset price booms and busts have broad ranging implications for households. Despite this, models used for policy analysis struggle to explain asset prices and their implications for the macroeconomy. This project will deliver frontier macro-finance research to inform academics and policymakers on how to model asset price booms and busts, to explain why equity and house price falls appear to have small versus large effects, and how to design e ....Distorted Beliefs and Asset Price Disconnect Puzzles. Asset price booms and busts have broad ranging implications for households. Despite this, models used for policy analysis struggle to explain asset prices and their implications for the macroeconomy. This project will deliver frontier macro-finance research to inform academics and policymakers on how to model asset price booms and busts, to explain why equity and house price falls appear to have small versus large effects, and how to design effective policy responses. Led by internationally recognized experts in macroeconomics, this research proposal is perfectly positioned to deliver scientific peer-reviewed research and embed outcomes through evidenced partnerships with the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Department of Treasury.Read moreRead less
Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the ec ....Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the economy, and the factors contributing to it. This should provide significant benefits through informing the conduct of Australian macroeconomic policy, as the appropriate policy response depends not only on knowing the current state of the economy but understanding the economic factors underlying it.
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The Role of a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in Shaping the Economy. In response to the global financial crisis, the world’s major central banks cut their rates to near zero and implemented untested unconventional monetary policies, significantly expanding the size and composition of their balance sheets. More than a decade later, the Reserve Bank of Australia is considering similar balance sheet policies. This proposal aims to develop various frameworks that can be used to simulate and evaluate w ....The Role of a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in Shaping the Economy. In response to the global financial crisis, the world’s major central banks cut their rates to near zero and implemented untested unconventional monetary policies, significantly expanding the size and composition of their balance sheets. More than a decade later, the Reserve Bank of Australia is considering similar balance sheet policies. This proposal aims to develop various frameworks that can be used to simulate and evaluate when and how to eventually undo unconventional monetary policies in order to prevent a prolonged recession. Thus this research proposal will contribute to the current Australian monetary policy debate while providing some insights on how best to implement such policies, improving the living standards of Australians.Read moreRead less
State & territory economic performance and national economic policy. The research is intended to provide a better understanding of the relationship between national and state & territory economic behaviour in Australia and the relative strengths of common and idiosyncratic factors affecting economic performance across the states and territories. The results of the research will help to inform both national and sub-national economic policies and hence contribute to better economic and social outc ....State & territory economic performance and national economic policy. The research is intended to provide a better understanding of the relationship between national and state & territory economic behaviour in Australia and the relative strengths of common and idiosyncratic factors affecting economic performance across the states and territories. The results of the research will help to inform both national and sub-national economic policies and hence contribute to better economic and social outcomes in Australia.Read moreRead less
Money, price and output dynamics: a segmented asset markets approach. This project studies the importance of asset market frictions and the cross-sectional composition of nominal spending across households for the monetary policy transmission mechanism (that is, for the channels by which monetary policy affects the broader macro-economy).
Growth and Inflation Dynamics: Measuring Steady-State Growth, Output Gaps and Inflationary Pressures using Survey Data in Australia and Other Advanced Economies. The aim of the project is to develop, for Australia and other advanced economies, new measures of 'potential production'. Such measures are important in the prediction of periods of recession and inflation, and in the formulation of macroeconomic policy. The proposal seeks to address the shortcomings of existing measures by (i) incorpor ....Growth and Inflation Dynamics: Measuring Steady-State Growth, Output Gaps and Inflationary Pressures using Survey Data in Australia and Other Advanced Economies. The aim of the project is to develop, for Australia and other advanced economies, new measures of 'potential production'. Such measures are important in the prediction of periods of recession and inflation, and in the formulation of macroeconomic policy. The proposal seeks to address the shortcomings of existing measures by (i) incorporating direct measures of expectations of future output and inflation from survey data, and (ii) being consistent with standard economic analysis. Forming best practice methods in the use of survey data in policy formation and in the production of economic forecasts will be a vital contribution of the project.Read moreRead less
Australian Real Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real Time Policy Making. This first comprehensive macroeconomic real time database for Australia recording the actual data available to policy makers at the time of making decisions will serve as a standard reference for accurate ex post macroeconomic policy evaluation and for accurate forecasts and decision making which are robust to data revisions. The free database will be of interest to Australian researchers, economists, ....Australian Real Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real Time Policy Making. This first comprehensive macroeconomic real time database for Australia recording the actual data available to policy makers at the time of making decisions will serve as a standard reference for accurate ex post macroeconomic policy evaluation and for accurate forecasts and decision making which are robust to data revisions. The free database will be of interest to Australian researchers, economists, forecasters and policy makers. Readily applicable and interpretable forecasts of the business cycle and the current state of the Australian (and US) economy (e.g. likelihood of recessions or inflation) will be of direct relevance to Australian policy-makers in Government, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and to the Australian decision-makers. Read moreRead less
Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less