Prior sensitivity analysis for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo output. This project aims to develop the first set of techniques to implement an automated output sensitivity analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. Computationally intense Bayesian MCMC provide a powerful alternative to classical methods for the estimation of economic models. An obstacle to their wider application is that researchers need to specify prior beliefs about model parameters that will affect t ....Prior sensitivity analysis for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo output. This project aims to develop the first set of techniques to implement an automated output sensitivity analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. Computationally intense Bayesian MCMC provide a powerful alternative to classical methods for the estimation of economic models. An obstacle to their wider application is that researchers need to specify prior beliefs about model parameters that will affect the results. The expected outcomes will enable researchers to undertake a routine assessment of the sensitivity of the results to prior inputs.Read moreRead less
Asset Market Interconnectedness and Exotic Options: The Mean Impact Surface. The project intends to develop models to price financial risk more accurately during periods of financial stress and increasing global interconnectedness. Specifically, it plans to develop a new class of latent factor models with time-varying loadings to model the interconnectedness of global financial markets during periods of financial stress. A key feature of the proposed model is the role of second-order conditional ....Asset Market Interconnectedness and Exotic Options: The Mean Impact Surface. The project intends to develop models to price financial risk more accurately during periods of financial stress and increasing global interconnectedness. Specifically, it plans to develop a new class of latent factor models with time-varying loadings to model the interconnectedness of global financial markets during periods of financial stress. A key feature of the proposed model is the role of second-order conditional moments of the underlying innovation processes in modelling asset return dynamics. The proposed model is characterised by higher order nonlinear structures which are captured graphically by the mean impact surface. The project also plans to develop a new class of tests to detect higher order dependencies among asset returns in the presence of time-varying volatility, and to investigate the implications for constructing portfolios with exotic options to hedge risk during financial crises.Read moreRead less
A New Phase and New Issues of Rural-Urban Migration in China. China’s urbanisation has come to a turning point. The large pool of rural young workers (16-25 years of age), which fed the industrialisation needs of the 1990s and 2000s, has exhausted. Future growth needs to rely on the increase in the length of stay of the existing migrants and the increase in older new migrants. Due to this shift, the institutional restrictions, which deter family migration, become the key challenge. This project ....A New Phase and New Issues of Rural-Urban Migration in China. China’s urbanisation has come to a turning point. The large pool of rural young workers (16-25 years of age), which fed the industrialisation needs of the 1990s and 2000s, has exhausted. Future growth needs to rely on the increase in the length of stay of the existing migrants and the increase in older new migrants. Due to this shift, the institutional restrictions, which deter family migration, become the key challenge. This project examines the cost of the migration restrictions (shortened labour supply and reduced human capital accumulation for the current and next generation migrants: their education, health and pro-social behaviour); and the best way to reform the restrictions on family migration and the priority for the reform.Read moreRead less
Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The p ....Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The properties of the models are investigated as well as the development of new estimation methods based on simulation techniques. An important implication of the approach is that it can be used as an early warning signal of future crises, thereby providing an input into the design of future policy on crisis management.Read moreRead less
Addressing race-based discrimination in Australia: a cost-benefit analysis. This project is designed to produce sustainable benefits to Australian society through the provision of important data needed to promote investment in strategies to address race-based discrimination. This will benefit both the lives of individuals experiencing race-based discrimination, including those from Indigenous and culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds. It will also benefit society as a whole through p ....Addressing race-based discrimination in Australia: a cost-benefit analysis. This project is designed to produce sustainable benefits to Australian society through the provision of important data needed to promote investment in strategies to address race-based discrimination. This will benefit both the lives of individuals experiencing race-based discrimination, including those from Indigenous and culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds. It will also benefit society as a whole through promotion of social cohesion and community connectedness and the economic benefits resulting from increased productivity and workforce participation and reduced burden on health, social and welfare systems.Read moreRead less
Food system resilience in Indonesia: A moral economy approach. This project aims to understand and enhance food security in Indonesia and beyond. It examines culture-specific moral concepts, embedded in food systems and daily practices, that affect food security. For 60 years, the dominant approach to food security has been to boost supply by industrialising agriculture and liberalising trade, but this market-based approach has failed. One billion people are food insecure. The project will condu ....Food system resilience in Indonesia: A moral economy approach. This project aims to understand and enhance food security in Indonesia and beyond. It examines culture-specific moral concepts, embedded in food systems and daily practices, that affect food security. For 60 years, the dominant approach to food security has been to boost supply by industrialising agriculture and liberalising trade, but this market-based approach has failed. One billion people are food insecure. The project will conduct case studies of three food systems to examine how moral economies ameliorate market failures locally and how different rural development programs disrupt or enhance their capacity to do so. The data produced could inform food security-friendly development of trade policies and provide the evidence base for UN efforts toward a global food solidarity pact.Read moreRead less
The Economics of Corruption and Institutional Change: Theory and Experiments. The economic and social wellbeing of its neighbours is important for Australia. It results in a more prosperous and safe region. Australia's interest in the wellbeing of its neighbours is often expressed through financial aid and the sharing of expertise. This research will contribute to this expertise by investigating the ways in which changes in political and legal institutions can help reduce corruption and result i ....The Economics of Corruption and Institutional Change: Theory and Experiments. The economic and social wellbeing of its neighbours is important for Australia. It results in a more prosperous and safe region. Australia's interest in the wellbeing of its neighbours is often expressed through financial aid and the sharing of expertise. This research will contribute to this expertise by investigating the ways in which changes in political and legal institutions can help reduce corruption and result in economic development. Moreover, the cross-country nature of this research project will help increase the level of academic interactions between Australian and foreign universities.Read moreRead less
Social Interactions, Group Dynamics, and the Political Economy of Sovereign Transgression: A Laboratory Investigation. Sovereign transgression-for example, confiscation of citizens' wealth by the state--can have a significant negative effect on economic performance. This project will study the under-explored issues of how social interactions and group dynamics can affect the incidence of sovereign transgression and citizen resistance in a controlled laboratory environment. The substantive and me ....Social Interactions, Group Dynamics, and the Political Economy of Sovereign Transgression: A Laboratory Investigation. Sovereign transgression-for example, confiscation of citizens' wealth by the state--can have a significant negative effect on economic performance. This project will study the under-explored issues of how social interactions and group dynamics can affect the incidence of sovereign transgression and citizen resistance in a controlled laboratory environment. The substantive and methodological innovations can increase the Australian knowledge base. The project will facilitate collaboration between Australian researchers and international experts. It will also expose Australian undergraduate students to experimental economics, and provide graduate students with hands-on training in using the laboratory method to study economic behaviour.
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Poverty in the Midst of Plenty: Economic Empowerment, Wealth Creation and Institutional Reform for Sustainable Indigenous and Local Communities. The project researches government, private sector and indigenous initiatives enhancing indigenous economic development and well-being outcomes. It provides culturally relevant data to analyse the flow of benefits (incl. employment) from the resources sector to indigenous peoples; links between government policy/services for indigenous well-being; and in ....Poverty in the Midst of Plenty: Economic Empowerment, Wealth Creation and Institutional Reform for Sustainable Indigenous and Local Communities. The project researches government, private sector and indigenous initiatives enhancing indigenous economic development and well-being outcomes. It provides culturally relevant data to analyse the flow of benefits (incl. employment) from the resources sector to indigenous peoples; links between government policy/services for indigenous well-being; and investigates legal forms (land title, securities, taxation law/incentives) for indigenous economic empowerment. The project strengthens the socio-economic fabric of indigenous communities benefiting the nation, indigenous peoples in commercial engagements, corporations seeking a 'licence to operate' and government agencies responsible for indigenous economic/social development.Read moreRead less
Linear and non-linear Price Decentralization. General equilibrium theory provides the conceptual foundation for our understanding of efficiency and welfare economics. However, at present it does not provide for an adequate understanding in many seetings: for instance, in the case of incomplete financial markets and markets with imperfect information. This project is part of the ongoing and broad research program in the Economic Theory Center of The University of Melbourne on general equilibriu ....Linear and non-linear Price Decentralization. General equilibrium theory provides the conceptual foundation for our understanding of efficiency and welfare economics. However, at present it does not provide for an adequate understanding in many seetings: for instance, in the case of incomplete financial markets and markets with imperfect information. This project is part of the ongoing and broad research program in the Economic Theory Center of The University of Melbourne on general equilibrium theory and mathematical economics. It seeks to extend the classical theory of price decentralization and rectify some of the defects of modern general equilibrium theory.Read moreRead less