Allocating scarce HIV/AIDS antiretroviral drugs in resource-constrained countries: using modelling to develop tools and analyse consequences of ethics and HIV-epidemiology. This project will benefit communities in some of the poorest countries of the world, suffering greatly from the HIV/AIDS epidemic. This research is important and timely for these nations in deciding how to distribute the limited treatment in an ethical manner to address treatment principles of these countries. However, the me ....Allocating scarce HIV/AIDS antiretroviral drugs in resource-constrained countries: using modelling to develop tools and analyse consequences of ethics and HIV-epidemiology. This project will benefit communities in some of the poorest countries of the world, suffering greatly from the HIV/AIDS epidemic. This research is important and timely for these nations in deciding how to distribute the limited treatment in an ethical manner to address treatment principles of these countries. However, the methods developed can also be applied to other diseases in different regions and people, such as Australian aborigines to increase their quality of health. Specifically, an epidemic of Chlamydia is widespread amongst the aboriginal communities of Australia's Northern Territory. Tools developed in this project will be easily adaptable to address control measures for Chlamydia among this population. Read moreRead less
Understanding spatial trends in HIV/AIDS infections in South Africa and Australia. This project will develop quantitative methods that will be used to inform public health officials in understanding past and current HIV/AIDS epidemics as well as planning for the future of these epidemics. It will understand not only the behavioural and demographic characteristics of importance as risk factors for HIV infection in South Africa, the epicentre of the global HIV pandemic, but also the geographical s ....Understanding spatial trends in HIV/AIDS infections in South Africa and Australia. This project will develop quantitative methods that will be used to inform public health officials in understanding past and current HIV/AIDS epidemics as well as planning for the future of these epidemics. It will understand not only the behavioural and demographic characteristics of importance as risk factors for HIV infection in South Africa, the epicentre of the global HIV pandemic, but also the geographical spatial locations in which HIV cases are likely to emerge in the future. This project will also forecast the future geographical trends in Australia's changing HIV epidemic in order to plan for intervention strategies and prepare clinical practice appropriately.Read moreRead less
Evolutionary models and bioinformatic analyses of genetic variation in pathogens. The benefits of this project are better preparedness for the ever-present threat of infectious disease spread and the stimulation of bioinformatic research in Australia. Epidemics such as the Influenza Pandemic of 1918, which killed over 20 million people, highlight the need to understand and track pathogens that can potentially cause such devastation. Along with the development of molecular technologies, it is imp ....Evolutionary models and bioinformatic analyses of genetic variation in pathogens. The benefits of this project are better preparedness for the ever-present threat of infectious disease spread and the stimulation of bioinformatic research in Australia. Epidemics such as the Influenza Pandemic of 1918, which killed over 20 million people, highlight the need to understand and track pathogens that can potentially cause such devastation. Along with the development of molecular technologies, it is important to maintain active creation of analytical methods that appropriately apply to growing databases. These include methods to understand genetic variation in pathogens. This project will help to keep Australia at the forefront of research in theoretical biology.Read moreRead less
The structure and dynamics of social contact for human disease transmission models. The methodological advances of this project will enable new insights in important social research. They will not only add significantly to national capacity in the modelling of complex social systems but they will also yield practical scientific outcomes in a significant policy domain in Australia and overseas. In Australia, response to diseases such as HIV, HCV and TB need new approaches, and the threat of pan ....The structure and dynamics of social contact for human disease transmission models. The methodological advances of this project will enable new insights in important social research. They will not only add significantly to national capacity in the modelling of complex social systems but they will also yield practical scientific outcomes in a significant policy domain in Australia and overseas. In Australia, response to diseases such as HIV, HCV and TB need new approaches, and the threat of pandemic influenza is significant. Read moreRead less
Modelling and estimation techniques for the transmission and control of Tuberculosis with new and existing vaccines. Most Tuberculosis in Australia is seen in foreign-born people. Australia has an important role in providing leadership in the Asia-Pacific region in Tuberculosis control, which will have flow-on benefits to TB control in this country. Using mathematical models, this project will assess the use of vaccines for Tuberculosis in the developing world. Rising levels of extremely drug r ....Modelling and estimation techniques for the transmission and control of Tuberculosis with new and existing vaccines. Most Tuberculosis in Australia is seen in foreign-born people. Australia has an important role in providing leadership in the Asia-Pacific region in Tuberculosis control, which will have flow-on benefits to TB control in this country. Using mathematical models, this project will assess the use of vaccines for Tuberculosis in the developing world. Rising levels of extremely drug resistant infections make this a timely and important study with significant policy implications, both externally and in the Australian context. Read moreRead less
Stochastic methods for studying models of infection and abundance. The outcomes of this project will have immense benefit to Australia. They impact upon two areas of national importance, namely ensuring an environmentally sustainable Australia, and safeguarding Australia. In particular, the project will provide models, methodology and optimal strategies for sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity, for protecting Australia from invasive diseases and pests, and for protecting Australia from te ....Stochastic methods for studying models of infection and abundance. The outcomes of this project will have immense benefit to Australia. They impact upon two areas of national importance, namely ensuring an environmentally sustainable Australia, and safeguarding Australia. In particular, the project will provide models, methodology and optimal strategies for sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity, for protecting Australia from invasive diseases and pests, and for protecting Australia from terrorism and crime. Special focus will be given to the control of invasive species, the control of emerging infections, and the optimal allocation of resources. The current risks posed by invasive diseases and pests, and the alarming rate of destruction of biodiversity, warrant urgent funding of this project.Read moreRead less
Epidemiology of pathogens in wildlife populations: significance for conservation, human health and livestock. Recent research shows that pathogens may play a central role in wildlife population dynamics. Emergent disease problems in humans and livestock may result from reservoir infections in wildlife. However, methods to determine the impact of pathogens on populations, as distinct from individuals within populations, are poorly developed, as are models necessary to evaluate alternative control ....Epidemiology of pathogens in wildlife populations: significance for conservation, human health and livestock. Recent research shows that pathogens may play a central role in wildlife population dynamics. Emergent disease problems in humans and livestock may result from reservoir infections in wildlife. However, methods to determine the impact of pathogens on populations, as distinct from individuals within populations, are poorly developed, as are models necessary to evaluate alternative control strategies for pathogens, particularly where reservoir hosts are involved. This project will develop these methods using four case studies: chyridiomycosis in frogs, Hendra virus in bats, Newcastle disease in wild birds and arboviruses in kangaroos and other macropods.Read moreRead less
Phylogeography, evolution and taxonomy of humanity's greatest pest, Rattus rattus: Epidemiological, archaeological and conservation implications. This project will characterise a major threat to Australian biosecurity and health, and identify the range of likely disease risks associated with introductions of different 'strains' of black rat. It will provide critical data for management efforts around the world, especially for strategic partners in neighbouring Southeast Asian nations, as well as ....Phylogeography, evolution and taxonomy of humanity's greatest pest, Rattus rattus: Epidemiological, archaeological and conservation implications. This project will characterise a major threat to Australian biosecurity and health, and identify the range of likely disease risks associated with introductions of different 'strains' of black rat. It will provide critical data for management efforts around the world, especially for strategic partners in neighbouring Southeast Asian nations, as well as for conservation efforts within Australia. The data will also provide novel means to track the timing and routes of human prehistoric movements throughout the area. It will establish strategic research collaborations between researchers in zoological, medical, epidemiological, genetics, and conservation fields in a unique multi-disciplinary study.Read moreRead less
New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics. Epidemics, such as the 2007 equine 'flu outbreak and 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, highlight the need to make informed decisive responses. This project will develop new methods that incorporate two important aspects of disease dynamics---host structure and chance---into mathematical models, and determine their impact in terms of controlling infections.
Predicting Malaria and Other Vector-borne Disease Risk Using Eco-epidemiological Models. The project will benefit the nation by safeguarding public health through modelling and assessing the risk of malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases such as Ross River virus and Dengue. Direct benefits will include reduced or managed risk of these mosquito-borne diseases along with a more efficient allocation of public health resources. Direct and indirect benefits will also flow to Indonesia by reducin ....Predicting Malaria and Other Vector-borne Disease Risk Using Eco-epidemiological Models. The project will benefit the nation by safeguarding public health through modelling and assessing the risk of malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases such as Ross River virus and Dengue. Direct benefits will include reduced or managed risk of these mosquito-borne diseases along with a more efficient allocation of public health resources. Direct and indirect benefits will also flow to Indonesia by reducing death and illness associated with malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases. This project will further the international collaboration already begun with Indonesia and has the potential to extend into other South-East Asian countries. Read moreRead less