Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the ec ....Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the economy, and the factors contributing to it. This should provide significant benefits through informing the conduct of Australian macroeconomic policy, as the appropriate policy response depends not only on knowing the current state of the economy but understanding the economic factors underlying it.
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Special Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR200200446
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$247,058.00
Summary
Rebuilding Troubled Regions: The Difference that Space Makes. This project aims to examine economic restructuring processes focusing on the parts of regional Australia that are being left behind by globalisation. The project will examine patterns of firm entry and exit in disadvantaged local economies following major plant closures and identify the causal pathways associated with sustainable employment and industry growth. The project will deploy the innovative methodology of Qualitative Compara ....Rebuilding Troubled Regions: The Difference that Space Makes. This project aims to examine economic restructuring processes focusing on the parts of regional Australia that are being left behind by globalisation. The project will examine patterns of firm entry and exit in disadvantaged local economies following major plant closures and identify the causal pathways associated with sustainable employment and industry growth. The project will deploy the innovative methodology of Qualitative Comparative Analysis and utilise recently developed datasets with a view to isolating causal relationships. By generating new knowledge about how space, positioning, and state interventions temper the nature and form of business births and deaths, the project will generate new regional policy insights and approaches.Read moreRead less
Inequality, Trade, and Technology. This project aims to improve our understanding of the causes of rising income inequality in the world economy and in Australia since the early 1980s. We focus on the increasing building costs and imports of machinery as significant contributors to the increasing inequality. We hypothesize 1) that the increasing costs of buildings have reduced the demand for workers that are complementary to non-residential building capital; thus, reducing real wages; and 2) tha ....Inequality, Trade, and Technology. This project aims to improve our understanding of the causes of rising income inequality in the world economy and in Australia since the early 1980s. We focus on the increasing building costs and imports of machinery as significant contributors to the increasing inequality. We hypothesize 1) that the increasing costs of buildings have reduced the demand for workers that are complementary to non-residential building capital; thus, reducing real wages; and 2) that the marked increase in imports of machinery since the 1960s has reduced the demand for unskilled labour and widened the employment and wage gap between skilled and unskilled labour. Both factors may have driven the increasing inequality in Australia.
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Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It wil ....Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It will conduct quantitative experiments using simulations, to estimate optimal government policy design settings. This project expects to identify policies that promote productivity, growth and employment.Read moreRead less
Banking System Competition and the Macro-economy. Australia has one of the most concentrated banking sectors in the world, generating concerns regarding its efficiency. This project aims to develop unified frameworks to understand and evaluate quantitatively how the structure of the banking industry affects the macro-economy and provide policy recommendations for establishing a healthy and efficient banking industry. This project expects to improve understanding of the welfare trade-off between ....Banking System Competition and the Macro-economy. Australia has one of the most concentrated banking sectors in the world, generating concerns regarding its efficiency. This project aims to develop unified frameworks to understand and evaluate quantitatively how the structure of the banking industry affects the macro-economy and provide policy recommendations for establishing a healthy and efficient banking industry. This project expects to improve understanding of the welfare trade-off between bank competition and economic well-being to enable policymakers to better determine the optimal concentration of banking sector in Australia. This will enhance the productivity and international competitiveness of Australia’s financial system and the broader economy.Read moreRead less
Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environ ....Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environment. Expected outcomes include new insights into the transmission of tail risks in the global economic and financial system. This should provide significant benefits, including guidance to Australian and international policymakers charged with maintaining stability in the face of extreme events.Read moreRead less
Optimal Tax Policy Meets Modern Labour Supply Theory. This project aims to generate new evidence on the optimal design of the federal tax system. Specifically, it seeks to determine the optimal combination of taxes on income, capital and consumption to raise necessary revenue while minimizing disincentives for work and capital formation. The project is innovative because, for the first time, it does optimal tax calculations using models that account fully for how taxes affect human capital inves ....Optimal Tax Policy Meets Modern Labour Supply Theory. This project aims to generate new evidence on the optimal design of the federal tax system. Specifically, it seeks to determine the optimal combination of taxes on income, capital and consumption to raise necessary revenue while minimizing disincentives for work and capital formation. The project is innovative because, for the first time, it does optimal tax calculations using models that account fully for how taxes affect human capital investment and labour force participation. It aims to enhance or understanding of the optimal mix between taxes on earnings, capital and consumption, and the optimal degree of income tax progressivity. The benefit is a tax system better designed to promote economic efficiency and human capital formation. Read moreRead less
Reassembling the city: understanding resident-led collective property sales. This project aims to investigate the emerging phenomenon of residential collective sales - where neighbours come together to sell their properties in one line - and the implications for urban residents and governments at local, metropolitan and national levels. It intends to provide the first ever detailed empirical analysis of this phenomenon, including mapping, case studies and stakeholder and expert interviews across ....Reassembling the city: understanding resident-led collective property sales. This project aims to investigate the emerging phenomenon of residential collective sales - where neighbours come together to sell their properties in one line - and the implications for urban residents and governments at local, metropolitan and national levels. It intends to provide the first ever detailed empirical analysis of this phenomenon, including mapping, case studies and stakeholder and expert interviews across Sydney and Vancouver, two cities at the forefront of collective sales activity. The project aims to make significant contributions to both policy and academic debates, by advancing knowledge on how shifting dynamics of neighbourhood change will affect the planning and development of global compact cities in the 21st century.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100693
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$405,458.00
Summary
Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy. The project aims to measure and understand the drivers of the financial cycle. As unsustainable financial conditions, such as excess credit, tend to precede financial cycle busts, which often eventuate into recessions, the project aims to also shed light on the interaction between the financial cycle and macroeconomy. These aims are expected to be achieved through the application of a new set of econometric tools to estimate and interpret financial cycles. ....Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy. The project aims to measure and understand the drivers of the financial cycle. As unsustainable financial conditions, such as excess credit, tend to precede financial cycle busts, which often eventuate into recessions, the project aims to also shed light on the interaction between the financial cycle and macroeconomy. These aims are expected to be achieved through the application of a new set of econometric tools to estimate and interpret financial cycles. The expected outcomes of this project include new insights for institutions such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and should provide significant benefit through the appropriate design of macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less