Understanding total long-term sea-level consequences. This project addresses the urgency in long-term infrastructure planning to understand the long-term "equilibrium" sea-level-change consequences from today’s exceptionally rapid climate change. Understanding this requires detailed sea-level reconstructions back to warm periods with similar CO2 levels to today (~3.5 million years ago), but these remain insufficiently defined. To advance, the project will deliver a next-generation, multi-million ....Understanding total long-term sea-level consequences. This project addresses the urgency in long-term infrastructure planning to understand the long-term "equilibrium" sea-level-change consequences from today’s exceptionally rapid climate change. Understanding this requires detailed sea-level reconstructions back to warm periods with similar CO2 levels to today (~3.5 million years ago), but these remain insufficiently defined. To advance, the project will deliver a next-generation, multi-million-year sea-level reconstruction that includes dynamically evolving (time-dependent) interactions between critical climate factors. This will then be applied with other palaeoclimate data to reconstruct equilibrium relationships between sea level, temperature, and CO2 at currently unattainable precision. Read moreRead less
Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how like ....Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how likely they are to exceed key thresholds. It targets important scientific and practical issues such as the joint occurrence of gusts and high rainfall, role of gusts in contributing to dust and other airborne pollutants, impacts of gusts on subsequent storm activity, and gusts in a warming climate.Read moreRead less
Special Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR200100005
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$36,000,000.00
Summary
Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future. This program aims to deliver unprecedented research capability for securing Antarctic environments in the face of uncertain change.
By integrating a highly skilled team with new approaches and breakthrough technologies, the program anticipates discovery science, enhanced environmental forecasting and optimised decision-making to advance Australia’s position as an influential Antarctic nation.
Expected outcomes include better environmental management ....Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future. This program aims to deliver unprecedented research capability for securing Antarctic environments in the face of uncertain change.
By integrating a highly skilled team with new approaches and breakthrough technologies, the program anticipates discovery science, enhanced environmental forecasting and optimised decision-making to advance Australia’s position as an influential Antarctic nation.
Expected outcomes include better environmental management, unparalleled strategic decision-support for an effective Antarctic Treaty, and new minds to address Antarctica’s new challenges.
Anticipated benefits are the means to transform environmental forecasting and management in the Antarctic, for Australia, and to the advantage of global security.Read moreRead less
Building Australia's next-generation ocean-sea ice model. Ocean and sea ice models are used for predicting future ocean and climate states, and for climate process research. This project aims to bring the next generation of ocean-sea ice models to Australia and configure the models for our local priorities. The ultimate goal is to create a new coupled ocean-sea ice model for Australia that includes surface waves and biogeochemistry. The model will be optimised and evaluated on Australian facilit ....Building Australia's next-generation ocean-sea ice model. Ocean and sea ice models are used for predicting future ocean and climate states, and for climate process research. This project aims to bring the next generation of ocean-sea ice models to Australia and configure the models for our local priorities. The ultimate goal is to create a new coupled ocean-sea ice model for Australia that includes surface waves and biogeochemistry. The model will be optimised and evaluated on Australian facilities, and released for community use. These developments underpin future ocean state forecasts, sea ice forecasts, wave forecasts, decadal climate prediction and climate process studies. The project will benefit search and rescue, Defence and shipping operations, and will enhance future climate projections.Read moreRead less
The Antarctic Slope Current in a warming climate. Melting Antarctic ice sheets are responsible for 28% of global sea level rise in recent decades, and can contribute more than 1 metre of sea level rise by year 2100, and a staggering 15 metres by 2500. Increased glacial melt rates are best understood by studying changes in the circulation of water around the Antarctic coastline. The combination of physical processes that must be resolved in this region places a high demand on ocean observations a ....The Antarctic Slope Current in a warming climate. Melting Antarctic ice sheets are responsible for 28% of global sea level rise in recent decades, and can contribute more than 1 metre of sea level rise by year 2100, and a staggering 15 metres by 2500. Increased glacial melt rates are best understood by studying changes in the circulation of water around the Antarctic coastline. The combination of physical processes that must be resolved in this region places a high demand on ocean observations and modelling systems. This project uses a series of high-resolution ocean and ice experiments, cross-validated with observations, to provide a deeper understanding of how waters at the Antarctic margin respond to both anthropogenic and natural climate forcing.Read moreRead less
Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observe ....Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observed and model-projected sea level rise in recent decades. This work will use a newly developed climate model hierarchy and innovative experimental design to determine the cause of this discrepancy and will produce more credible regional sea level rise projections by clarifying and reducing projection uncertainty.
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Resolving the role of dryland flooding in the global carbon cycle. Aquatic sources of carbon dioxide and methane are globally significant, but unknown for flooded drylands. The aim of this project is to use an innovative combination of well-integrated methodologies to determine if flooded drylands release large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. This project is significant because this release of carbon dioxide and methane has not previously been accounted for and may change the magnitude of ....Resolving the role of dryland flooding in the global carbon cycle. Aquatic sources of carbon dioxide and methane are globally significant, but unknown for flooded drylands. The aim of this project is to use an innovative combination of well-integrated methodologies to determine if flooded drylands release large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. This project is significant because this release of carbon dioxide and methane has not previously been accounted for and may change the magnitude of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide sink and account of some of the planet’s missing sources of methane. The outcomes of this project will make a significant contribution to our understanding of the global carbon cycle and earth climate system, and inform future management of these systems.
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Past to future changes in ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. This project aims to understand the impact of changes in ocean circulation on marine biogeochemistry, climate and ultimately the Antarctic ice-sheet by combining transient simulations of the last glacial cycle performed with an Earth system model incorporating the compilation of paleoproxy records. The oceanic circulation has varied over the last glacial cycle (~140,000 years) and is expected to change over the coming centuries due t ....Past to future changes in ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. This project aims to understand the impact of changes in ocean circulation on marine biogeochemistry, climate and ultimately the Antarctic ice-sheet by combining transient simulations of the last glacial cycle performed with an Earth system model incorporating the compilation of paleoproxy records. The oceanic circulation has varied over the last glacial cycle (~140,000 years) and is expected to change over the coming centuries due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. The project will measure future changes in oceanic circulation on ocean acidification and oxygen content with a state-of-the-art high-resolution ocean carbon cycle model. This will lead to improved understanding of processes and feedbacks within the Earth system.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE220101027
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$455,906.00
Summary
Resolving ocean convection: new knowledge for a changing Antarctica. This project aims to improve our understanding of the role of convection on the Antarctic margins using a high-resolution, cutting-edge numerical approach. Convection is an important, but poorly understood oceanic process, which diverts heat away from the melting Antarctic ice shelves by transporting cold and salty water from the ocean surface to depth. The project outcomes will be new knowledge of the physics from novel numeri ....Resolving ocean convection: new knowledge for a changing Antarctica. This project aims to improve our understanding of the role of convection on the Antarctic margins using a high-resolution, cutting-edge numerical approach. Convection is an important, but poorly understood oceanic process, which diverts heat away from the melting Antarctic ice shelves by transporting cold and salty water from the ocean surface to depth. The project outcomes will be new knowledge of the physics from novel numerical models and theory, supported by insights from observations and model parameterisations. This timely research will improve prediction of sea level rise due to a changing Antarctica and enhance our ability to adapt to future climate scenarios, providing significant environmental and health benefits to Australians.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE170100184
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$360,000.00
Summary
Understanding Antarctic dense water formation. This project aims to use a high-resolution global modelling approach to understand how Antarctic dense water formation changed in past climates and how to predict future changes. The Southern Ocean is critical in the uptake of heat and carbon from the atmosphere into the deep ocean. The sinking of cold and saline dense water around the coast of Antarctica transports heat and carbon into the deep ocean. Climate models fail to simulate this process an ....Understanding Antarctic dense water formation. This project aims to use a high-resolution global modelling approach to understand how Antarctic dense water formation changed in past climates and how to predict future changes. The Southern Ocean is critical in the uptake of heat and carbon from the atmosphere into the deep ocean. The sinking of cold and saline dense water around the coast of Antarctica transports heat and carbon into the deep ocean. Climate models fail to simulate this process and little is known about how dense water formation responds to changes in climate. Identification of critical vulnerabilities associated with Antarctic ice shelf melting and sea level rise will guide Southern Ocean observation systems and Australian climate adaptation programs.Read moreRead less