Shaping a sunburnt country: fire, climate and the Australian landscape. Fire shapes Australia’s landscape, biodiversity and resources. This project aims to quantify the recent history of fire intensity and severity using several novel proxies in the fire-prone landscapes of south-eastern Australia. Calibration of these new proxies to recent wildfires will be used for a better characterisation of fire regimes. This research will be applied to sedimentary archives to investigate how fire regimes h ....Shaping a sunburnt country: fire, climate and the Australian landscape. Fire shapes Australia’s landscape, biodiversity and resources. This project aims to quantify the recent history of fire intensity and severity using several novel proxies in the fire-prone landscapes of south-eastern Australia. Calibration of these new proxies to recent wildfires will be used for a better characterisation of fire regimes. This research will be applied to sedimentary archives to investigate how fire regimes have evolved over the past 100 years. The outcomes will inform debates about the relationship between climatic variability and fire severity, and this will contribute to increase the preparedness of natural resource management to potential future climate and land-use scenarios.Read moreRead less
The Antarctic ice sheet through the Last Glacial Cycle - numerical modelling constrained by field evidence. The response of the world's largest ice mass to climate change is important because melting leads to a rise in sea level. Our ability to predict changes in ice volume and sea level under a warming climate, will be enhanced by better understanding of past ice sheet responses to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Improved numerical models now exist that allow realistic simulations of Ant ....The Antarctic ice sheet through the Last Glacial Cycle - numerical modelling constrained by field evidence. The response of the world's largest ice mass to climate change is important because melting leads to a rise in sea level. Our ability to predict changes in ice volume and sea level under a warming climate, will be enhanced by better understanding of past ice sheet responses to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Improved numerical models now exist that allow realistic simulations of Antarctic ice. These models will be developed further and constrained against existing and new field evidence for the Last Glacial Cycle (last 125,000 years), the period for which we can best define past ice sheet behaviour.Read moreRead less
Geomorphological development of coral reefs, southern Great Barrier Reef: an integrated record of Holocene palaeoecology and palaeoclimate from cores. Very little is known about how the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has responded or may respond to predicted environmental change and/or degradation. The project will reconstruct the recent biological and physical history of reefs in the southern GBR in order to better understand how they may react to future environmental changes.
Eruption and disruption: how Earth’s deep interior and surface communicate. Massive volcanic eruptions are a fundamental part of the Earth System, responsible for globally disruptive events, from airspace disturbance, to extinction of the dinosaurs. This project will reveal relationships between hot, deep sources of volcanic material, and the tectonic processes at the Earth's surface. Expected outcomes of this project include assembling an unprecedented set of new observations from underwater vo ....Eruption and disruption: how Earth’s deep interior and surface communicate. Massive volcanic eruptions are a fundamental part of the Earth System, responsible for globally disruptive events, from airspace disturbance, to extinction of the dinosaurs. This project will reveal relationships between hot, deep sources of volcanic material, and the tectonic processes at the Earth's surface. Expected outcomes of this project include assembling an unprecedented set of new observations from underwater volcanoes offshore Eastern Australia, and the development of innovative geodynamic models of how the deep Earth interacts with the surface to form these volcanoes. This will provide significant benefits by advancing our understanding of the deep Earth, and its impact on Earth’s surface, natural hazards, and mineral systems.Read moreRead less
An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with differen ....An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with different mechanisms being represented through different models in a probabilistic sense. We expect our approach to address the limitations of current schemes, and provide a much improved basis for estimating flows for design and management applications.Read moreRead less
Stochastic rainfall generation for design flow estimation. Floods cause one third of all natural disasters worldwide, more than half the fatalities and one-third the economic loss. Accurate design flood estimation can help alleviate this impact. The estimation procedure currently used assumes that a given rainfall leads to a corresponding design flood, negating the influence variations in pre-existing soil moisture conditions may have. An alternative that overcomes the above limitation is to use ....Stochastic rainfall generation for design flow estimation. Floods cause one third of all natural disasters worldwide, more than half the fatalities and one-third the economic loss. Accurate design flood estimation can help alleviate this impact. The estimation procedure currently used assumes that a given rainfall leads to a corresponding design flood, negating the influence variations in pre-existing soil moisture conditions may have. An alternative that overcomes the above limitation is to use stochastically generated rainfall series to simulate flows from which the design flood can be estimated. This study aims to develop a generic framework for stochastic generation of rainfall for design flood estimation in Australia.Read moreRead less
TERRESIM: A simulation system for understanding and managing the interactions between runoff, vegetation, soils and climate in a changing environment. The landforms around us evolve in response to the processes of hydrology, erosion, climate and vegetation that develops on them. Likewise, the past behaviour of these processes (thus historical climatic fluctuations) in written in the deposited sediment. To study these interactions will be develop a state-of-the-art landform simulator (TerreSim). ....TERRESIM: A simulation system for understanding and managing the interactions between runoff, vegetation, soils and climate in a changing environment. The landforms around us evolve in response to the processes of hydrology, erosion, climate and vegetation that develops on them. Likewise, the past behaviour of these processes (thus historical climatic fluctuations) in written in the deposited sediment. To study these interactions will be develop a state-of-the-art landform simulator (TerreSim). We will use it to explore the evolution, development and sustainability of soils, vegetation, and hydrology (e.g. water supply) so as to better understand their response to climatic changes. We will also study rates of cliff retreat and debris flow in steep landscapes to better understand cliff stability.Read moreRead less
New insights into abrupt climate change using isotope model-data fusion. There have been several episodes in the past 60,000 years during which carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere causing significant and rapid warming. This project aims to determine the source of the carbon responsible for these warming events. This project is significant because it will increase our understanding of the processes underlying abrupt past, and potential future changes. These processes are currently und ....New insights into abrupt climate change using isotope model-data fusion. There have been several episodes in the past 60,000 years during which carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere causing significant and rapid warming. This project aims to determine the source of the carbon responsible for these warming events. This project is significant because it will increase our understanding of the processes underlying abrupt past, and potential future changes. These processes are currently underestimated or missing in climate models. The expected outcomes include a better understanding of the non-linear responses in the climate system. This should provide significant benefits, such as an assessment of whether the smooth climate changes currently projected through to year 2100 are misleading.Read moreRead less
High resolution warm ocean records from laminated sediment. This project will produce environmental records during ocean warming events in the geologic past to reveal processes associated with warm oceans similar to those anticipated in the coming century. New Australian technology allows investigation of sediment records at unprecedented time resolution providing insight into processes operating on societally relevant time scales of decades to centuries. This work will open an archive of climat ....High resolution warm ocean records from laminated sediment. This project will produce environmental records during ocean warming events in the geologic past to reveal processes associated with warm oceans similar to those anticipated in the coming century. New Australian technology allows investigation of sediment records at unprecedented time resolution providing insight into processes operating on societally relevant time scales of decades to centuries. This work will open an archive of climate information revealing feedback, thresholds and tipping points from past events previously inaccessible because of technical and conceptual limitations. It will provide critical inputs into models predicting future climate and to illuminate the risks and compensating feedbacks occurring with warming.
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How the complexity of continental breakup controls ocean circulation. This project aims to address the evolution of oceanic seaways formed during separation of tectonic plates (such as Australia and Antarctica). The seaways that form are key components modulating the global ocean circulation system and are implicated in major glacial expansion events. This project aims to unravel their role relative to other drivers for example carbon dioxide (CO2). Unravelling the influence of seaway opening co ....How the complexity of continental breakup controls ocean circulation. This project aims to address the evolution of oceanic seaways formed during separation of tectonic plates (such as Australia and Antarctica). The seaways that form are key components modulating the global ocean circulation system and are implicated in major glacial expansion events. This project aims to unravel their role relative to other drivers for example carbon dioxide (CO2). Unravelling the influence of seaway opening compared with declining CO2 in the onset of Antarctic and Northern hemisphere glaciation will enable more accurate future climate simulations. The project will also give international exposure and training to the next generation of numerically adept geoscientists and oceanographers.Read moreRead less