The Antarctic ice sheet through the Last Glacial Cycle - numerical modelling constrained by field evidence. The response of the world's largest ice mass to climate change is important because melting leads to a rise in sea level. Our ability to predict changes in ice volume and sea level under a warming climate, will be enhanced by better understanding of past ice sheet responses to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Improved numerical models now exist that allow realistic simulations of Ant ....The Antarctic ice sheet through the Last Glacial Cycle - numerical modelling constrained by field evidence. The response of the world's largest ice mass to climate change is important because melting leads to a rise in sea level. Our ability to predict changes in ice volume and sea level under a warming climate, will be enhanced by better understanding of past ice sheet responses to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Improved numerical models now exist that allow realistic simulations of Antarctic ice. These models will be developed further and constrained against existing and new field evidence for the Last Glacial Cycle (last 125,000 years), the period for which we can best define past ice sheet behaviour.Read moreRead less
Geomorphological development of coral reefs, southern Great Barrier Reef: an integrated record of Holocene palaeoecology and palaeoclimate from cores. Very little is known about how the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has responded or may respond to predicted environmental change and/or degradation. The project will reconstruct the recent biological and physical history of reefs in the southern GBR in order to better understand how they may react to future environmental changes.
An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with differen ....An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with different mechanisms being represented through different models in a probabilistic sense. We expect our approach to address the limitations of current schemes, and provide a much improved basis for estimating flows for design and management applications.Read moreRead less
Stochastic rainfall generation for design flow estimation. Floods cause one third of all natural disasters worldwide, more than half the fatalities and one-third the economic loss. Accurate design flood estimation can help alleviate this impact. The estimation procedure currently used assumes that a given rainfall leads to a corresponding design flood, negating the influence variations in pre-existing soil moisture conditions may have. An alternative that overcomes the above limitation is to use ....Stochastic rainfall generation for design flow estimation. Floods cause one third of all natural disasters worldwide, more than half the fatalities and one-third the economic loss. Accurate design flood estimation can help alleviate this impact. The estimation procedure currently used assumes that a given rainfall leads to a corresponding design flood, negating the influence variations in pre-existing soil moisture conditions may have. An alternative that overcomes the above limitation is to use stochastically generated rainfall series to simulate flows from which the design flood can be estimated. This study aims to develop a generic framework for stochastic generation of rainfall for design flood estimation in Australia.Read moreRead less
TERRESIM: A simulation system for understanding and managing the interactions between runoff, vegetation, soils and climate in a changing environment. The landforms around us evolve in response to the processes of hydrology, erosion, climate and vegetation that develops on them. Likewise, the past behaviour of these processes (thus historical climatic fluctuations) in written in the deposited sediment. To study these interactions will be develop a state-of-the-art landform simulator (TerreSim). ....TERRESIM: A simulation system for understanding and managing the interactions between runoff, vegetation, soils and climate in a changing environment. The landforms around us evolve in response to the processes of hydrology, erosion, climate and vegetation that develops on them. Likewise, the past behaviour of these processes (thus historical climatic fluctuations) in written in the deposited sediment. To study these interactions will be develop a state-of-the-art landform simulator (TerreSim). We will use it to explore the evolution, development and sustainability of soils, vegetation, and hydrology (e.g. water supply) so as to better understand their response to climatic changes. We will also study rates of cliff retreat and debris flow in steep landscapes to better understand cliff stability.Read moreRead less
How the complexity of continental breakup controls ocean circulation. This project aims to address the evolution of oceanic seaways formed during separation of tectonic plates (such as Australia and Antarctica). The seaways that form are key components modulating the global ocean circulation system and are implicated in major glacial expansion events. This project aims to unravel their role relative to other drivers for example carbon dioxide (CO2). Unravelling the influence of seaway opening co ....How the complexity of continental breakup controls ocean circulation. This project aims to address the evolution of oceanic seaways formed during separation of tectonic plates (such as Australia and Antarctica). The seaways that form are key components modulating the global ocean circulation system and are implicated in major glacial expansion events. This project aims to unravel their role relative to other drivers for example carbon dioxide (CO2). Unravelling the influence of seaway opening compared with declining CO2 in the onset of Antarctic and Northern hemisphere glaciation will enable more accurate future climate simulations. The project will also give international exposure and training to the next generation of numerically adept geoscientists and oceanographers.Read moreRead less
Sediment stock-piling and the fate of Australian floodplains. Historic landuse practices have profoundly altered Australia's river systems in less than 200 years. Up to 80% of the sediment and associated pollutants eroded from Australia's catchments are stored in floodplains. The assumption that floodplains can continue to absorb the impacts of upland erosion and land degradation is extremely risky, yet it underpins current catchment management policies in Australia. This project delivers essent ....Sediment stock-piling and the fate of Australian floodplains. Historic landuse practices have profoundly altered Australia's river systems in less than 200 years. Up to 80% of the sediment and associated pollutants eroded from Australia's catchments are stored in floodplains. The assumption that floodplains can continue to absorb the impacts of upland erosion and land degradation is extremely risky, yet it underpins current catchment management policies in Australia. This project delivers essential data on floodplain storage and remobilisation rates using innovative sediment dating and tracing technologies. The significance of this research lies in its immediate relevance to rural industries and the management of Australian riverine and offshore ecosystems.
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Origins and distributions of intraplate earthquakes. This project aims to investigate the behaviour and origin of intraplate earthquakes in Australia by developing a multi-million-year record of earthquakes using geological, geochronological, geospatial, seismological, statistical and numerical modelling data. It will use maximum credible magnitudes, maximum shaking intensities of intraplate earthquakes and spatiotemporal relationships between large prehistoric and contemporary earthquakes to im ....Origins and distributions of intraplate earthquakes. This project aims to investigate the behaviour and origin of intraplate earthquakes in Australia by developing a multi-million-year record of earthquakes using geological, geochronological, geospatial, seismological, statistical and numerical modelling data. It will use maximum credible magnitudes, maximum shaking intensities of intraplate earthquakes and spatiotemporal relationships between large prehistoric and contemporary earthquakes to improve models of future seismic hazard in Australia and globally. This will lead to improved predictions of future earthquake impacts in urban and natural environments and development of new paleoseismic techniques.Read moreRead less
Ice sheet collapse, sea-level rise and Australian coastal response. The project is designed to contribute to answering important questions in climate change: Which polar ice sheets are the most vulnerable to warming? How fast will sea levels rise? What will be the impact on global coasts during the 21st century? The response of polar ice sheets to modest increases in global temperature and the rate of future sea-level rise remains highly uncertain. The project plans to examine the retreat of the ....Ice sheet collapse, sea-level rise and Australian coastal response. The project is designed to contribute to answering important questions in climate change: Which polar ice sheets are the most vulnerable to warming? How fast will sea levels rise? What will be the impact on global coasts during the 21st century? The response of polar ice sheets to modest increases in global temperature and the rate of future sea-level rise remains highly uncertain. The project plans to examine the retreat of the polar ice sheets during the last warm interglacial period and the sea-level record archived in the Australian coastal sediments and morphology. It plans to use this unique sea-level signal to fingerprint the ice sheets that contributed the excess meltwater to the oceans and to map the configuration of the southern Australian coast under higher sea levels than present.Read moreRead less
Institutional transitions to sustainable agriculture: An inter-disciplinary analysis of a novel common-property resource governance system. Efforts to overcome the severe degradation of land resources supporting agriculture and human communities continue to be constrained by institutions and social norms. The knowledge needed for a transition to sustainable agricultural landscapes through institutional change is inadequate. A collaboration between specialists in economics, politics, sociology, ....Institutional transitions to sustainable agriculture: An inter-disciplinary analysis of a novel common-property resource governance system. Efforts to overcome the severe degradation of land resources supporting agriculture and human communities continue to be constrained by institutions and social norms. The knowledge needed for a transition to sustainable agricultural landscapes through institutional change is inadequate. A collaboration between specialists in economics, politics, sociology, ecology and soil science at the University of New England and graziers in an upper Murray-Darling subcatchment will analyse the transition to a common-property institution on this subcatchment. It will make a distinctively Australian contribution to international efforts to understand such transitions, and serve as a model for progress towards sustainability elsewhere in Australia.
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