Representing low-frequency variability in hydro-climatic simulations for water resources planning and management in a changing climate. Simulating local hydro-climatology under likely climate change allows risk assessment of existing and future water infrastructure, along with the planning protocols needed to adapt to the changes ahead. This study aims to develop the tools needed to simulate local hydro-climatology, providing a basis for securing water for the generations to come.
A framework for model emulation and ensemble modelling. For improved water resource management there is a need for further development of appropriate hydrologic models. This project will undertake a collection of hydrologic modelling activities performed at multiple catchments in Australia. A modeling framework that is flexible, extendible and accounts for potential forecast uncertainties will be developed.
Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment And Facilities - Grant ID: LE160100027
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$600,000.00
Summary
Australian National Facility for Noble-Gas Radio-Isotope Measurements. Australian national facility for noble-gas radio-isotope measurements:
This facility is designed to provide researchers with the ability to accurately date water and ice cores using the natural radio-isotopes in the sample. Radiocarbon dating has been a revolutionary tool in providing answers to a range of questions in anthropology, archaeology and the earth sciences. However, radiocarbon dating has a strong limitation in th ....Australian National Facility for Noble-Gas Radio-Isotope Measurements. Australian national facility for noble-gas radio-isotope measurements:
This facility is designed to provide researchers with the ability to accurately date water and ice cores using the natural radio-isotopes in the sample. Radiocarbon dating has been a revolutionary tool in providing answers to a range of questions in anthropology, archaeology and the earth sciences. However, radiocarbon dating has a strong limitation in that it can only date periods from 1000–50 000 years: the use of radioactive noble-gas isotopes can extend this range out to 1 year to 1 million years. This capability in the new facility is expected to support new understanding of processes in artesian reservoirs, ocean currents and geology that may affect questions of water availability, climate and environmental change.Read moreRead less
An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with differen ....An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with different mechanisms being represented through different models in a probabilistic sense. We expect our approach to address the limitations of current schemes, and provide a much improved basis for estimating flows for design and management applications.Read moreRead less
Stochastic rainfall generation for design flow estimation. Floods cause one third of all natural disasters worldwide, more than half the fatalities and one-third the economic loss. Accurate design flood estimation can help alleviate this impact. The estimation procedure currently used assumes that a given rainfall leads to a corresponding design flood, negating the influence variations in pre-existing soil moisture conditions may have. An alternative that overcomes the above limitation is to use ....Stochastic rainfall generation for design flow estimation. Floods cause one third of all natural disasters worldwide, more than half the fatalities and one-third the economic loss. Accurate design flood estimation can help alleviate this impact. The estimation procedure currently used assumes that a given rainfall leads to a corresponding design flood, negating the influence variations in pre-existing soil moisture conditions may have. An alternative that overcomes the above limitation is to use stochastically generated rainfall series to simulate flows from which the design flood can be estimated. This study aims to develop a generic framework for stochastic generation of rainfall for design flood estimation in Australia.Read moreRead less
TERRESIM: A simulation system for understanding and managing the interactions between runoff, vegetation, soils and climate in a changing environment. The landforms around us evolve in response to the processes of hydrology, erosion, climate and vegetation that develops on them. Likewise, the past behaviour of these processes (thus historical climatic fluctuations) in written in the deposited sediment. To study these interactions will be develop a state-of-the-art landform simulator (TerreSim). ....TERRESIM: A simulation system for understanding and managing the interactions between runoff, vegetation, soils and climate in a changing environment. The landforms around us evolve in response to the processes of hydrology, erosion, climate and vegetation that develops on them. Likewise, the past behaviour of these processes (thus historical climatic fluctuations) in written in the deposited sediment. To study these interactions will be develop a state-of-the-art landform simulator (TerreSim). We will use it to explore the evolution, development and sustainability of soils, vegetation, and hydrology (e.g. water supply) so as to better understand their response to climatic changes. We will also study rates of cliff retreat and debris flow in steep landscapes to better understand cliff stability.Read moreRead less
Sediment stock-piling and the fate of Australian floodplains. Historic landuse practices have profoundly altered Australia's river systems in less than 200 years. Up to 80% of the sediment and associated pollutants eroded from Australia's catchments are stored in floodplains. The assumption that floodplains can continue to absorb the impacts of upland erosion and land degradation is extremely risky, yet it underpins current catchment management policies in Australia. This project delivers essent ....Sediment stock-piling and the fate of Australian floodplains. Historic landuse practices have profoundly altered Australia's river systems in less than 200 years. Up to 80% of the sediment and associated pollutants eroded from Australia's catchments are stored in floodplains. The assumption that floodplains can continue to absorb the impacts of upland erosion and land degradation is extremely risky, yet it underpins current catchment management policies in Australia. This project delivers essential data on floodplain storage and remobilisation rates using innovative sediment dating and tracing technologies. The significance of this research lies in its immediate relevance to rural industries and the management of Australian riverine and offshore ecosystems.
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Multi-site generation of daily rainfall for catchment water management studies. This project aims to develop new approaches for stochastic generation of daily precipitation at multiple locations within a catchment. Traditional stochastic generators are found lacking at daily time-steps, offering a poor representation of observed distributional, seasonal and persistence characteristics. Ongoing research has resulted in approaches for generating daily rainfall at a single location that do not suff ....Multi-site generation of daily rainfall for catchment water management studies. This project aims to develop new approaches for stochastic generation of daily precipitation at multiple locations within a catchment. Traditional stochastic generators are found lacking at daily time-steps, offering a poor representation of observed distributional, seasonal and persistence characteristics. Ongoing research has resulted in approaches for generating daily rainfall at a single location that do not suffer from the above problems. This project will formulate approaches for rainfall generation at multiple locations within a catchment. The generated data will allow risk-based management and more reliable evaluation of the hydrologic, environmental and socioeconomic impacts of alternative water resource management planning scenarios.Read moreRead less
Multi-site probabilistic streamflow forecasting for water management applications. This project will develop methodologies for probabilistic forecasting of streamflow at multiple locations in a catchment. These probabilistic forecasts will be used to develop alternate reservoir operating policies that allow operators to use current climate information to maximise water supply at controlled levels of risk. The probabilistic forecasts will be formulated using data representing the regional and glo ....Multi-site probabilistic streamflow forecasting for water management applications. This project will develop methodologies for probabilistic forecasting of streamflow at multiple locations in a catchment. These probabilistic forecasts will be used to develop alternate reservoir operating policies that allow operators to use current climate information to maximise water supply at controlled levels of risk. The probabilistic forecasts will be formulated using data representing the regional and global climate, and validated retrospectively over time. Once completed, this research will provide a means for risk-based management and hence a more reliable evaluation of the hydrologic, environmental and socioeconomic impacts of alternative water resource management planning scenarios.Read moreRead less
Soil erosion and river system response to climate change and early human activity in Australia. This project will provide a much needed quantitative understanding of how soils and rivers have responded and adapted to climate change and human activity in Australia. The outcomes will inform models to predict how our environment is likely to adapt to new conditions in the future as a result of indirect (global warming) and direct (intensive land use) human-related stresses. This project will contri ....Soil erosion and river system response to climate change and early human activity in Australia. This project will provide a much needed quantitative understanding of how soils and rivers have responded and adapted to climate change and human activity in Australia. The outcomes will inform models to predict how our environment is likely to adapt to new conditions in the future as a result of indirect (global warming) and direct (intensive land use) human-related stresses. This project will contribute to the innovative character of Australian research through the development and implementation of new approaches to study soil and river processes.Read moreRead less