A framework for model emulation and ensemble modelling. For improved water resource management there is a need for further development of appropriate hydrologic models. This project will undertake a collection of hydrologic modelling activities performed at multiple catchments in Australia. A modeling framework that is flexible, extendible and accounts for potential forecast uncertainties will be developed.
Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment And Facilities - Grant ID: LE130100136
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$340,000.00
Summary
Mobile weather radar system for advanced environmental monitoring and modelling. High spatial and temporal resolution weather radar data on wind and precipitation will translate to significant environmental model advances. Australian researchers will undertake model validation studies on precipitation, dust storm, and flood prediction under a wider range of environmental conditions and in greater detail than currently possible.
Development of a generic catchment classification framework in hydrology. Hydrologic models play a vital role in water resource planning and management, but identification of a suitable model for a given catchment remains a basic problem. This research develops a generic framework to classify catchments into groups and sub-groups, and will offer a significantly better way for hydrologic model development and application.
A decadal to inter-decadal streamflow prediction system. This project will develop the first ever decadal streamflow prediction system for Australia, leading to predictions of streamflow for the next 10 years and beyond that take into account both natural climatic variability (driven by factors such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation) and changing greenhouse gas concentrations due to a warming planet.
Uncertainty quantification in terrestrial hydrologic systems. This project aims to develop a framework to simulate, quantify and analyse the uncertainty in streamflow and vegetation dynamics via approximate Bayesian computation. Water is a fundamental resource, and a difficulty in water resource management is to make predictions in a changing environment. Uncertainties in predictions of natural systems due to observational and model error make this more difficult. It is anticipated that the resu ....Uncertainty quantification in terrestrial hydrologic systems. This project aims to develop a framework to simulate, quantify and analyse the uncertainty in streamflow and vegetation dynamics via approximate Bayesian computation. Water is a fundamental resource, and a difficulty in water resource management is to make predictions in a changing environment. Uncertainties in predictions of natural systems due to observational and model error make this more difficult. It is anticipated that the results from this project will advance uncertainty analysis in hydrology and help understand how different types of data and information can inform model characterisation. This will be useful in providing vital information on the attributes and extent of uncertainty to inform water resources analysis, management and decision making.Read moreRead less
A robust integrated streamflow forecasting framework for Australian water information and management agencies. This project aims to deliver an accurate and reliable seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australian water users by developing a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling approach integrated into a Bayesian inference and prediction framework. These scientific developments aim to significantly advance the operational capabilities of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to deliver robust ....A robust integrated streamflow forecasting framework for Australian water information and management agencies. This project aims to deliver an accurate and reliable seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australian water users by developing a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling approach integrated into a Bayesian inference and prediction framework. These scientific developments aim to significantly advance the operational capabilities of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to deliver robust streamflow forecasts to water agencies such as South East Queensland Water and others across Australia. Accurate predictions of future water flows are of tremendous value to urban and rural Australian communities whose economic prosperity, water security and social well-being depend on reliable estimates of water availability.Read moreRead less
Flooding in Australia – are we properly prepared for how bad it can get? This project aims to investigate how floods have varied over the past 2000 years. Floods are a recurrent and natural part of Australia’s hydroclimate and are influenced strongly by climate variability. However, these influences are not yet completely understood or accounted for. This project will use novel insights from 2000 years of climate reconstructions to generate new knowledge about how bad flooding can get and what c ....Flooding in Australia – are we properly prepared for how bad it can get? This project aims to investigate how floods have varied over the past 2000 years. Floods are a recurrent and natural part of Australia’s hydroclimate and are influenced strongly by climate variability. However, these influences are not yet completely understood or accounted for. This project will use novel insights from 2000 years of climate reconstructions to generate new knowledge about how bad flooding can get and what causes flood frequency to change over time. A decision-making framework that allows for all the uncertainties associated with managing floods will also be developed. This will provide a critical evaluation of the accuracy of existing flood estimates, and also the reliability of infrastructure and policy based on those estimates.Read moreRead less
The influence of East Coast Lows on the water security of coastal New South Wales. East Coast Lows (ECL) often result in major flooding but this water is also important for "topping up" water storages along the east Australian coast. This project will study and understand the relationship between ECLs and water security along the densely populated eastern seaboard, particularly how ECL behaviour may alter under climate change.
Hydrologic effects of human and climatic stresses in water-limited areas: role of coevolving runoff, vegetation and landforms for adaptive management. Semiarid rangelands cover over 70 per cent of the Australian continent. These areas already face serious degradation problems. Observed trends in rainfall variability indicate that high rainfall pulses and dry periods will intensify, with serious implications for hydrology and erosion. The impact of these trends in addition to increasing human pre ....Hydrologic effects of human and climatic stresses in water-limited areas: role of coevolving runoff, vegetation and landforms for adaptive management. Semiarid rangelands cover over 70 per cent of the Australian continent. These areas already face serious degradation problems. Observed trends in rainfall variability indicate that high rainfall pulses and dry periods will intensify, with serious implications for hydrology and erosion. The impact of these trends in addition to increasing human pressures could have devastating socioeconomic consequences for these areas. This project, by examining in detail the hydrologic and soil transport processes in semiarid rangelands, will lead to: better understanding of the dryland response to anthropogenic and climatic stresses; and, improvement of strategies and methods for the management and restoration of these areas.Read moreRead less