Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
New methods for small group analysis from sample surveys. National and state averages of statistics on issues such as unemployment, salinity, drought impact, and health often hide large differences between population sub-groups and between small areas. This local variation needs to be understood so that effective policies can be developed and carried out efficiently and their impact monitored. This project will provide, for the first time, robust and efficient methods for providing information o ....New methods for small group analysis from sample surveys. National and state averages of statistics on issues such as unemployment, salinity, drought impact, and health often hide large differences between population sub-groups and between small areas. This local variation needs to be understood so that effective policies can be developed and carried out efficiently and their impact monitored. This project will provide, for the first time, robust and efficient methods for providing information on these variations using data from large-scale national and state surveys. This will lead to significant improvements in the data available for small population groups and small areas, allowing better targeting of policies aimed at addressing local differences.Read moreRead less
Handling Missing Data in Complex Household Surveys. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has an extensive program of household surveys that is a key source of information on the social and economic conditions of the population. They provide statistics and data on a large range of social and economic topics, such as health, education, the labour force, income and expenditure. Analysis of household survey data by a variety of organisations underpins policy development and evaluation and the e ....Handling Missing Data in Complex Household Surveys. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has an extensive program of household surveys that is a key source of information on the social and economic conditions of the population. They provide statistics and data on a large range of social and economic topics, such as health, education, the labour force, income and expenditure. Analysis of household survey data by a variety of organisations underpins policy development and evaluation and the expenditure of billions of dollars. This project will substantially improve the cost-efficiency and reliability of Australian household survey data, by creating new approaches for handling missing data that deal with the realities of typical household surveys.Read moreRead less
Modelling claim dependencies for the general insurance industry with economic capital in view: an innovative approach with stochastic processes. This project will develop and enhance multi-dimensional models used to describe and assess the risks borne by general insurers. These innovative methods, which will be directly applicable by the industry, will strengthen the efficiency and the safety of the Australian economy.
Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable mode ....Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable modelled small-area estimates to be released without compromising confidentiality. The expected outcomes include new statistical knowledge and new insights into cancer. The results will benefit the many disciplines, managers and policy makers that make decisions based on geographic data mapped over space and time. Read moreRead less
Bayesian statistical methods for enhancing evidence-based practice in Australia's hospitals. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health with the goal of Preventative Healthcare. Through enhanced capability in combining information from diverse sources for improved evidence-based decisions and true sharing of university and medical expertise, the project will enhance Australia's medical research and practice, align professional and comm ....Bayesian statistical methods for enhancing evidence-based practice in Australia's hospitals. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health with the goal of Preventative Healthcare. Through enhanced capability in combining information from diverse sources for improved evidence-based decisions and true sharing of university and medical expertise, the project will enhance Australia's medical research and practice, align professional and community expectations, utilise local medical information, and address national demands for quality science underpinning health decisions.
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Making the Most of Database Information in Patient-Based Decision-Making - A Bayesian Approach. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health and will lead to immediate improvement in health outcomes through optimising patient outcomes in Australian hospitals; cross-disciplinary and cross-hospital communication. Through enhanced capability in combining information from diverse sources the project will enhance Australia's medical research a ....Making the Most of Database Information in Patient-Based Decision-Making - A Bayesian Approach. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health and will lead to immediate improvement in health outcomes through optimising patient outcomes in Australian hospitals; cross-disciplinary and cross-hospital communication. Through enhanced capability in combining information from diverse sources the project will enhance Australia's medical research and practice, align professional and community expectations, utilise increased amounts of local medical information, and address national demands for quality science underpinning health decisions.Read moreRead less
Innovative Bayesian statistics for enhanced decision making for pharmaceutical drug development. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health, and will lead to improvements in health outcomes by patients accessing new drugs sooner, enhancing research, and reducing the cost of health care. Decision making in early stages of drug development will be improved by using novel statistical methods, which could also be applied in a variety of sit ....Innovative Bayesian statistics for enhanced decision making for pharmaceutical drug development. This project addresses Australia's national research priority of Promoting and Maintaining Good Health, and will lead to improvements in health outcomes by patients accessing new drugs sooner, enhancing research, and reducing the cost of health care. Decision making in early stages of drug development will be improved by using novel statistical methods, which could also be applied in a variety of situations involving decision making procedures. This will be achieved through cross-disciplinary and university-industry collaboration, utilising Australian and international expertise. National demands for quality science and trained researchers underpinning health decisions will be contributed to.Read moreRead less
Seasonal adjustment using disaggregated short time span data. Seasonally adjusted economic and social times series are vital information used by governments and businesses in decision making. This project will develop statistical methods to estimate and remove seasonal factors from economic and social time series using finely disaggregated data for a relatively small number of time periods. This will enable better and quicker estimation of seasonal factors when new series are introduced or there ....Seasonal adjustment using disaggregated short time span data. Seasonally adjusted economic and social times series are vital information used by governments and businesses in decision making. This project will develop statistical methods to estimate and remove seasonal factors from economic and social time series using finely disaggregated data for a relatively small number of time periods. This will enable better and quicker estimation of seasonal factors when new series are introduced or there a major changes to existing series, improving the analysis of such series and the decisions based on them.Read moreRead less
Rating and ranking sports players and teams using minimum message length. All sorts of games and sports could use better systems for rating and ranking teams. This is as true in sports-mad Australia as any other country. Improved and more accessible rating systems across a variety of activities should encourage the general public to take a greater interest in the mathematics, statistics, information theory and machine learning behind the systems. With Cadability as our Australia-based interna ....Rating and ranking sports players and teams using minimum message length. All sorts of games and sports could use better systems for rating and ranking teams. This is as true in sports-mad Australia as any other country. Improved and more accessible rating systems across a variety of activities should encourage the general public to take a greater interest in the mathematics, statistics, information theory and machine learning behind the systems. With Cadability as our Australia-based international industry partner, the global use of these systems will be to Australia's economic advantage. Having a more accurate rating system which is wider-reaching both in the number of sports and games and the number of participants per sport and game should also encourage greater participation from the general public.Read moreRead less