New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the ....New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the policy making process.Read moreRead less
Classification methods for providing personalised and class decisions. This project provides a novel approach to the clustering of multivariate samples on entities in a class that automatically matches the sample clusters across the entities, allowing for inter-sample variation between the samples in a class. The project aims to develop a widely applicable, mixture-model-based framework for the simultaneous clustering of multivariate samples with inter-sample variation in a class and for the mat ....Classification methods for providing personalised and class decisions. This project provides a novel approach to the clustering of multivariate samples on entities in a class that automatically matches the sample clusters across the entities, allowing for inter-sample variation between the samples in a class. The project aims to develop a widely applicable, mixture-model-based framework for the simultaneous clustering of multivariate samples with inter-sample variation in a class and for the matching of the clusters across the entities in the class. The project will use a statistical approach to automatically match the clusters, since the overall mixture model provides a template for the class. It will provide a basis for discriminating between different classes in addition to the identification of atypical data points within a sample and of anomalous samples within a class. Key applications include biological image analysis and the analysis of data in flow cytometry which is one of the fundamental research tools for the life scientist.Read moreRead less
Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowle ....Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowledge in econometrics and statistics, and enhanced tools for program evaluation and policy assessment in empirical causal analysis using observational data. The project falls into the category of smarter information use and is relevant to any national priority areas where policy interventions require assessment.Read moreRead less
Advanced algorithms for statistical mechanical models. Polymer science, percolation theory and models of magnetism are at the forefront of lattice statistical mechanics and condensed matter theory. Numerical techniques to determine the behaviour of model systems in these areas are predominantly Monte Carlo methods, series generation and analysis, or based on partition function zeroes. New algorithms have been developed for all three methods that are vastly more efficient than their predecessors. ....Advanced algorithms for statistical mechanical models. Polymer science, percolation theory and models of magnetism are at the forefront of lattice statistical mechanics and condensed matter theory. Numerical techniques to determine the behaviour of model systems in these areas are predominantly Monte Carlo methods, series generation and analysis, or based on partition function zeroes. New algorithms have been developed for all three methods that are vastly more efficient than their predecessors. Coupled with the availability of dramatically increased computer power, this project takes advantage of a unique position to make dramatic advances in the afore-mentioned research areas. Furthermore, the methods have wider applicability than those mentioned.Read moreRead less
Population ageing, labour mobility and sustainability of China's economic growth - a dynamic general equilibrium analysis. China is Australia's second largest trading partner. This project will enable Australian policymakers and business partners to gain better understanding of China's macroeconomic performance between 2008 and 2030. Secondly, China is the second largest source of immigrants to Australia. Given that Australia's population is ageing and labour shortages are expected, Australia ma ....Population ageing, labour mobility and sustainability of China's economic growth - a dynamic general equilibrium analysis. China is Australia's second largest trading partner. This project will enable Australian policymakers and business partners to gain better understanding of China's macroeconomic performance between 2008 and 2030. Secondly, China is the second largest source of immigrants to Australia. Given that Australia's population is ageing and labour shortages are expected, Australia may benefit increasingly from the flow of Chinese immigrants. The project will provide Australian policymakers with detailed labour supply forecasts in China disaggregated by age, sex, sector and region that will enable them to develop targeted immigration policies and effectively harness the flow of Chinese emigrants to Australia.Read moreRead less
Empowering next-generation sea-ice models with wave–ice mathematics. Sea ice is a crucial part of the Australian and global climate systems, and the most sensitive indicator of the alarming climate changes in motion. This project aims to deliver a vital component in next-generation sea-ice models, by modelling ocean waves in the ice-covered ocean, and implementing it in the leading large-scale sea-ice model. The waves-in-ice model will be accurate for the range of possible wave–ice conditions, u ....Empowering next-generation sea-ice models with wave–ice mathematics. Sea ice is a crucial part of the Australian and global climate systems, and the most sensitive indicator of the alarming climate changes in motion. This project aims to deliver a vital component in next-generation sea-ice models, by modelling ocean waves in the ice-covered ocean, and implementing it in the leading large-scale sea-ice model. The waves-in-ice model will be accurate for the range of possible wave–ice conditions, using understanding derived from state-of-the-art experimental measurements. Powerful mathematical approximation methods will be developed to generate model efficiency. The outcomes will create a new standard in sea-ice modelling, with significant benefits for sea-ice forecasting and climate studies.Read moreRead less
Supply-side dynamics in the private rental housing market. Demographic and socio-economic trends, along with changes in housing policy, have resulted in increased reliance on the private rental sector. This has led to growing concerns about its capacity to respond. Our understanding of the supply dynamics of this tenure, and particularly that of low rent housing, is underdeveloped. This gap in our knowledge is due to lack of data and to methodological difficulties. Recent advances in econometric ....Supply-side dynamics in the private rental housing market. Demographic and socio-economic trends, along with changes in housing policy, have resulted in increased reliance on the private rental sector. This has led to growing concerns about its capacity to respond. Our understanding of the supply dynamics of this tenure, and particularly that of low rent housing, is underdeveloped. This gap in our knowledge is due to lack of data and to methodological difficulties. Recent advances in econometric techniques, in conjunction with the assembly of a unique data set, will be used to examine previously untested explanations, including microlevel filtering, behavioural,hazard function and spatial analyses.Read moreRead less
Early desert settlement of Arabia following out-of-Africa human dispersals. This project aims to improve our understanding of the nature, timing and climatic context of early human expansion into SW Asia, from a new extensive archaeological complex with associated palaeoenvironmental sequences on the Arabian Peninsula – a strategic out-of-Africa migratory corridor. It will combine innovative approaches in archaeology, geochronology and palaeoenvironmental research to evaluate the environmental a ....Early desert settlement of Arabia following out-of-Africa human dispersals. This project aims to improve our understanding of the nature, timing and climatic context of early human expansion into SW Asia, from a new extensive archaeological complex with associated palaeoenvironmental sequences on the Arabian Peninsula – a strategic out-of-Africa migratory corridor. It will combine innovative approaches in archaeology, geochronology and palaeoenvironmental research to evaluate the environmental and cultural adaptability of early desert settlement, providing critical new insights into globally significant human dispersal debates spanning multiple continents, including Australia. The aim is a fundamental new perspective on long-term human occupation dynamics of deserts and new understanding of regional dispersals.Read moreRead less
Early African woodworking and tool use at the transition to modern humans. Our archaeological excavations and preliminary dating of Amanzi Springs (South Africa) to between 515,000 and 163,000 years ago shows that the site covers a critical time period that led to the origins of our species, Homo sapiens. Amanzi documents, in never before seen resolution, the technological leaps that our ancestors made during this transition. At ~400,000 years ago this includes the oldest evidence for woodworkin ....Early African woodworking and tool use at the transition to modern humans. Our archaeological excavations and preliminary dating of Amanzi Springs (South Africa) to between 515,000 and 163,000 years ago shows that the site covers a critical time period that led to the origins of our species, Homo sapiens. Amanzi documents, in never before seen resolution, the technological leaps that our ancestors made during this transition. At ~400,000 years ago this includes the oldest evidence for woodworking and tool use and >163,000 years ago the oldest heat treatment of rock to make stone tools. The organic preservation at the site means that we can reconstruct changing environment, linked to sea level changes and spring activity, for this period in the evolution of our ancestors at a level of detail not previously possibleRead moreRead less
Linking wave–sea ice feedbacks to rapid ice retreat. Antarctic sea ice extent has been in sharp decline since 2016, which is stressing the fragile Southern Ocean and Antarctic environments so vital to the global climate. This project aims to investigate a crucial candidate mechanism of sea ice loss by predicting rapid ice retreat in response to large Southern Ocean waves. New theory and modelling capabilities that account for wave–ice feedbacks will underpin the predictions, leveraging on recent ....Linking wave–sea ice feedbacks to rapid ice retreat. Antarctic sea ice extent has been in sharp decline since 2016, which is stressing the fragile Southern Ocean and Antarctic environments so vital to the global climate. This project aims to investigate a crucial candidate mechanism of sea ice loss by predicting rapid ice retreat in response to large Southern Ocean waves. New theory and modelling capabilities that account for wave–ice feedbacks will underpin the predictions, leveraging on recent research breakthroughs, including novel datasets derived from satellite and field observations. The outcomes are expected to quantify sea ice retreat due to ocean waves for the first time, with potentially major implications for coupled wave–sea ice modelling in climate studies.Read moreRead less