New Bayesian methodology for understanding complex systems using hidden Markov models and expert opinion, environmental, robotics and genomics applications. This project aims to merge four areas of intense international interest in describing complex systems: hidden Markov models and mixtures, semi-parametric and nonparametric approaches, true combination of expert opinion with data, and new Bayesian computational methods based on perfect sampling and particle sampling. The project will signific ....New Bayesian methodology for understanding complex systems using hidden Markov models and expert opinion, environmental, robotics and genomics applications. This project aims to merge four areas of intense international interest in describing complex systems: hidden Markov models and mixtures, semi-parametric and nonparametric approaches, true combination of expert opinion with data, and new Bayesian computational methods based on perfect sampling and particle sampling. The project will significantly contribute to statistical methodology and its ability to inform about real-world problems. A strong focus on applications to genomics, robotics and environmental modelling will bring immediate research and monetary benefit for industry. Expected outcomes include enhanced cross-disciplinary and international linkages, publications, industry-funded projects and highly trained graduates.Read moreRead less
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are ....Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are i) measures of systemic risk and ii) a theoretical framework to study the optimality of aggregate versus sectoral stabilization policies. Benefits include a better understanding of macroeconomic fluctuations in Australia and proposed economic policies to mitigate large and persistent declines in employment and GDP.Read moreRead less
The economics of (mis)information in the age of social media. New media technologies allow anyone to broadcast their views, leading to a “cacophony of voices” where misinformation flourishes. Tools from information economics are tailor-made for understanding information consumption in settings with many biased news sources. We develop economic models where many sources compete to attract and influence heterogenous listeners. We then study how misinformation spreads and amplifies when consumers ....The economics of (mis)information in the age of social media. New media technologies allow anyone to broadcast their views, leading to a “cacophony of voices” where misinformation flourishes. Tools from information economics are tailor-made for understanding information consumption in settings with many biased news sources. We develop economic models where many sources compete to attract and influence heterogenous listeners. We then study how misinformation spreads and amplifies when consumers of information communicate with many others through a social network. Finally, we study how to design simple and robust rules to foster informative discourse and filter misinformation. The results will shape economic policy recommendations for regulating misinformation in media platforms and social media.Read moreRead less
Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It wil ....Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It will conduct quantitative experiments using simulations, to estimate optimal government policy design settings. This project expects to identify policies that promote productivity, growth and employment.Read moreRead less
'Fixed points': extending and deepening our understanding of mathematical and computational aspects of game theory. This work will extend and deepen our understanding of mathematical and computational aspects of game theory. It will produce computer code embodying new methods of solving systems of nonlinear equations, which is useful in many areas of applied research in economics, in other disciplines such as chemistry, and potentially in the analysis of business operations. The project will a ....'Fixed points': extending and deepening our understanding of mathematical and computational aspects of game theory. This work will extend and deepen our understanding of mathematical and computational aspects of game theory. It will produce computer code embodying new methods of solving systems of nonlinear equations, which is useful in many areas of applied research in economics, in other disciplines such as chemistry, and potentially in the analysis of business operations. The project will also deepen our understanding of the underlying mathematics of such systems, and of other mathematical foundations of economic research. One application will be a new measure of the relative power resulting from voting rules. Such measures assist the design of democratic institutions by allowing the designer to assess the fairness of the outcomes they produce.Read moreRead less
Reaching new frontiers of quantum fields and gravity through deformations. This project aims to reach new frontiers in quantum field and gravity theories. These underpin systems ranging from semi-conductors to particle collisions and the quantum behavior of black holes. An obstacle is that these theories are notoriously hard to solve. This project proposes to tackle this longstanding problem by using new deformations, symmetries and dualities that have attracted widespread attention. Expected ou ....Reaching new frontiers of quantum fields and gravity through deformations. This project aims to reach new frontiers in quantum field and gravity theories. These underpin systems ranging from semi-conductors to particle collisions and the quantum behavior of black holes. An obstacle is that these theories are notoriously hard to solve. This project proposes to tackle this longstanding problem by using new deformations, symmetries and dualities that have attracted widespread attention. Expected outcomes will include innovative techniques that will greatly enhance and interconnect our knowledge of field theories and quantum gravity, together with new discoveries in quantum-corrected geometries. A new network of domestic and international experts will largely benefit the fields of theoretical and mathematical physics.Read moreRead less
Legitimacy and representation: A comprehensive study of electoral systems and strategic voting behaviour. What makes a good electoral system? How can it reflect the preference of the majority while guaranteeing representation to minorities? Should voting be voluntary or mandatory? These are very relevant questions for any democracy, but particularly so for Australia: a country which has always been at the forefront of the electoral debate, that proudly strives to represent with fairness all sect ....Legitimacy and representation: A comprehensive study of electoral systems and strategic voting behaviour. What makes a good electoral system? How can it reflect the preference of the majority while guaranteeing representation to minorities? Should voting be voluntary or mandatory? These are very relevant questions for any democracy, but particularly so for Australia: a country which has always been at the forefront of the electoral debate, that proudly strives to represent with fairness all sectors of its very diverse society and where voting is not only a citizen's right, but also her duty. By approaching these issues in a game theoretic framework, this project proposes to investigate the strategic nature of voting through a comprehensive study of electoral systems. The project will then test our theoretical predictions through a series of laboratory experiments. Read moreRead less
Identification of causal variants for complex traits. The aim of this project is to identify causal variants for complex traits in cattle and humans. Although most important traits in agriculture, medicine and evolution are complex traits, very few of the genetic variants affecting these traits are known and this undermines our understanding of how genetic variants affect a trait and practical uses of this knowledge. Huge datasets of individuals with genome sequence and phenotypes and new statis ....Identification of causal variants for complex traits. The aim of this project is to identify causal variants for complex traits in cattle and humans. Although most important traits in agriculture, medicine and evolution are complex traits, very few of the genetic variants affecting these traits are known and this undermines our understanding of how genetic variants affect a trait and practical uses of this knowledge. Huge datasets of individuals with genome sequence and phenotypes and new statistical methods provide the opportunity to close this gap. The outcome will be identification of many genomic variants causing variation in complex traits. This will benefit scientific understanding of complex traits and the ability to predict traits for individuals from their genome sequence.Read moreRead less
Bauhaus Australia: Transforming Education in Art, Architecture and Design. This project aims to examine the influence of Bauhaus-inspired émigrés on Australian cultural life. An under-examined but profound influence on Australian cultural history was the forced migration of émigré and refugee modernists from Germany and central Europe, who transformed art, architectural and design education from the 1930s to the 1970s. German and central European training, inspired by the Bauhaus, centred on sys ....Bauhaus Australia: Transforming Education in Art, Architecture and Design. This project aims to examine the influence of Bauhaus-inspired émigrés on Australian cultural life. An under-examined but profound influence on Australian cultural history was the forced migration of émigré and refugee modernists from Germany and central Europe, who transformed art, architectural and design education from the 1930s to the 1970s. German and central European training, inspired by the Bauhaus, centred on systematic approaches to pictorial method and design, colour theory and art education, all underwritten by an all-encompassing social ambition. This project aims to provide a new cross-disciplinary history of modernism in Australia that shifts focus from solo contributions to the networks of education, where modernism’s impact was most public, widespread and influential.Read moreRead less