Prior sensitivity analysis for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo output. This project aims to develop the first set of techniques to implement an automated output sensitivity analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. Computationally intense Bayesian MCMC provide a powerful alternative to classical methods for the estimation of economic models. An obstacle to their wider application is that researchers need to specify prior beliefs about model parameters that will affect t ....Prior sensitivity analysis for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo output. This project aims to develop the first set of techniques to implement an automated output sensitivity analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. Computationally intense Bayesian MCMC provide a powerful alternative to classical methods for the estimation of economic models. An obstacle to their wider application is that researchers need to specify prior beliefs about model parameters that will affect the results. The expected outcomes will enable researchers to undertake a routine assessment of the sensitivity of the results to prior inputs.Read moreRead less
Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable mode ....Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable modelled small-area estimates to be released without compromising confidentiality. The expected outcomes include new statistical knowledge and new insights into cancer. The results will benefit the many disciplines, managers and policy makers that make decisions based on geographic data mapped over space and time. Read moreRead less
Molecular design of complex lubricants to reduce friction. We will investigate the molecular level design of friction modifiers for a new generation of industrial lubricants. The goal is to dramatically reduce friction between moving mechanical parts, hence increasing energy efficiency in machines and reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. We will design and test these new friction modifiers by a combination of theoretical and computational methods based in statistical mechanics and nonequili ....Molecular design of complex lubricants to reduce friction. We will investigate the molecular level design of friction modifiers for a new generation of industrial lubricants. The goal is to dramatically reduce friction between moving mechanical parts, hence increasing energy efficiency in machines and reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. We will design and test these new friction modifiers by a combination of theoretical and computational methods based in statistical mechanics and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics and directly compare results with experimental measurements. Our investigations will pave the way to develop new cost-effective friction modifiers without the need for traditional and costly trial and error laboratory based experimentation.Read moreRead less
Robust methods for heteroscedastic regression models for time series. What is the variability of the exchange rate of the Euro to the Australian dollar? Can the use of the electrocardiogram of a patient be improved as a diagnostic tool for heart disease? A well-known limitation of the existing statistical methods for answering these types of questions is that a small proportion of extreme observations have the potential to lead to results that are more in agreement with the outliers than with bu ....Robust methods for heteroscedastic regression models for time series. What is the variability of the exchange rate of the Euro to the Australian dollar? Can the use of the electrocardiogram of a patient be improved as a diagnostic tool for heart disease? A well-known limitation of the existing statistical methods for answering these types of questions is that a small proportion of extreme observations have the potential to lead to results that are more in agreement with the outliers than with bulk of the data. As a consequence, the statistical analyses may lead to wrong conclusions. This project aims to develop new methodologies to solve this problem for a large class of studies. Applications to stock market risk, exchange rate, and diagnosis of heart diseases will illustrate the new methods.Read moreRead less
Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowle ....Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowledge in econometrics and statistics, and enhanced tools for program evaluation and policy assessment in empirical causal analysis using observational data. The project falls into the category of smarter information use and is relevant to any national priority areas where policy interventions require assessment.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE240100635
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$448,801.00
Summary
Understanding the development of lifestyle behaviours in early childhood. This project adopts novel statistical modelling and machine learning approaches to understand the development of lifestyle behaviours in early childhood. Despite the pivotal role of lifestyle behaviours in influencing health and quality of life, little research exists on lifestyle behaviours in early childhood. This project will establish a comprehensive understanding of lifestyle behaviours in early childhood by identifyi ....Understanding the development of lifestyle behaviours in early childhood. This project adopts novel statistical modelling and machine learning approaches to understand the development of lifestyle behaviours in early childhood. Despite the pivotal role of lifestyle behaviours in influencing health and quality of life, little research exists on lifestyle behaviours in early childhood. This project will establish a comprehensive understanding of lifestyle behaviours in early childhood by identifying key developmental time points, mechanisms of behavioural change, and children at risk of developing poor lifestyle behaviours. The project will inform strategies and policies to optimise lifestyle behaviours from the start of life and showcase the capabilities of novel methods in advancing behavioural epidemiology.Read moreRead less
Econometric methods for distributional policy effects. This project aims to develop new econometric methods that can measure distributional policy effects by accounting for heterogeneous policy impacts among observationally equivalent individuals. The project expects to develop quantile regression methods under a difference-in-differences framework that accommodates issues of censoring and sample selection. The outcomes of this project are expected to substantially broaden the scope of the stand ....Econometric methods for distributional policy effects. This project aims to develop new econometric methods that can measure distributional policy effects by accounting for heterogeneous policy impacts among observationally equivalent individuals. The project expects to develop quantile regression methods under a difference-in-differences framework that accommodates issues of censoring and sample selection. The outcomes of this project are expected to substantially broaden the scope of the standard mean difference-in-differences approach and have significant contributions to empirical studies in the future. The project intends to provide statistically valid inferential procedures and conduct simulation exercise and empirical studies relevant to policy evaluation for the benefit of Australia and other jurisdictions.Read moreRead less
Transformative simulation techniques for complex polymer networks. The study of long chain polymers like DNA using computer simulations has uncovered exciting insights over many years. Generally these have been limited to simple topologies, interactions, and environments. This project aims to develop the next generation of simulation techniques to tackle a new frontier of polymer models, including those with complex topologies like stars, knots, and links, which have hitherto been inaccessible. ....Transformative simulation techniques for complex polymer networks. The study of long chain polymers like DNA using computer simulations has uncovered exciting insights over many years. Generally these have been limited to simple topologies, interactions, and environments. This project aims to develop the next generation of simulation techniques to tackle a new frontier of polymer models, including those with complex topologies like stars, knots, and links, which have hitherto been inaccessible. Expected outcomes include new simulation methods which harness modern computational clusters, leading to greater understanding of polymers with complex topologies and in complicated environments. Important elements of biological processes may be discovered, such as how polymer structure affects DNA transcription.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200101045
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$330,756.00
Summary
Enhanced methods for approximating the structure of large networks. This project aims to explain fundamental structural features of real-world networks such as the internet and online social networks, by advancing complex-analytical techniques. Current knowledge of properties such as reliability, robustness and optimal allocation of resources rely on assumptions that are invalid in real applications. The project expects to improve understanding of inhomogeneous network models by introducing an i ....Enhanced methods for approximating the structure of large networks. This project aims to explain fundamental structural features of real-world networks such as the internet and online social networks, by advancing complex-analytical techniques. Current knowledge of properties such as reliability, robustness and optimal allocation of resources rely on assumptions that are invalid in real applications. The project expects to improve understanding of inhomogeneous network models by introducing an innovative idea of high-order approximations to complex random settings. Expected outcomes include new tools for approximate counting of discrete objects satisfying given constraints. Applications of these tools could have far-reaching benefits to researchers who study quantitative characteristics of discrete systems.Read moreRead less
High-frequency Estimation of Term Structure Models at the Zero Lower Bound. This project aims to quantify monetary policy shocks as shifts of the entire term structure of interest rates, when the central bank’s policy rate is constrained at the near-zero level. The proposed method will use a high-dimensional panel of high frequency government bond data. The term structure and resultant policy shocks estimated at intra-day frequencies for major economies including Australia, will be made publicly ....High-frequency Estimation of Term Structure Models at the Zero Lower Bound. This project aims to quantify monetary policy shocks as shifts of the entire term structure of interest rates, when the central bank’s policy rate is constrained at the near-zero level. The proposed method will use a high-dimensional panel of high frequency government bond data. The term structure and resultant policy shocks estimated at intra-day frequencies for major economies including Australia, will be made publicly available. This project expects to deepen our understanding of how monetary policy decisions affect the macroeconomy in a near-zero interest-rate environment. This should provide significant benefits to policymakers for implementing and monitoring monetary policy in achieving desired economic outcomes.Read moreRead less