Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually updat ....Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually update estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes of interest such as the winner of the match and the margin of victory. The project will assist Champion in their strategic aim to provide an on line form guide.Read moreRead less
Predicting Roll Angular Motion. The roll angular motion, or RAM, of a ship denotes its oscillation about its longitudinal axis, primarily caused by wave motion. The ability to predict RAM is of significant practical utility. For example, in defence-related work it plays a role in determining accuracy of weapons systems. We suggest a technique for predicting RAM. Our method borrows from both parametric and nonparametric statistics, in that a sinusoidal model is fitted to data but only over a ....Predicting Roll Angular Motion. The roll angular motion, or RAM, of a ship denotes its oscillation about its longitudinal axis, primarily caused by wave motion. The ability to predict RAM is of significant practical utility. For example, in defence-related work it plays a role in determining accuracy of weapons systems. We suggest a technique for predicting RAM. Our method borrows from both parametric and nonparametric statistics, in that a sinusoidal model is fitted to data but only over a short time interval. We show how to both assess and correct error. In particular, we propose methods for attaching probabilities to the accuracy of predictions.Read moreRead less
Seasonal adjustment using disaggregated short time span data. Seasonally adjusted economic and social times series are vital information used by governments and businesses in decision making. This project will develop statistical methods to estimate and remove seasonal factors from economic and social time series using finely disaggregated data for a relatively small number of time periods. This will enable better and quicker estimation of seasonal factors when new series are introduced or there ....Seasonal adjustment using disaggregated short time span data. Seasonally adjusted economic and social times series are vital information used by governments and businesses in decision making. This project will develop statistical methods to estimate and remove seasonal factors from economic and social time series using finely disaggregated data for a relatively small number of time periods. This will enable better and quicker estimation of seasonal factors when new series are introduced or there a major changes to existing series, improving the analysis of such series and the decisions based on them.Read moreRead less
Making the most of remotely sensed data: Bayesian spatio-temporal models for enhanced natural resource management and design. This research will provide methods for cost-efficient spatio-temporal data collection and analysis, with increased capacity for better decision-making about managing Australia’s natural resources. Through the Linkage partners’ networks, these benefits will be disseminated throughout regional bodies, government agencies and research groups across and outside Australia. The ....Making the most of remotely sensed data: Bayesian spatio-temporal models for enhanced natural resource management and design. This research will provide methods for cost-efficient spatio-temporal data collection and analysis, with increased capacity for better decision-making about managing Australia’s natural resources. Through the Linkage partners’ networks, these benefits will be disseminated throughout regional bodies, government agencies and research groups across and outside Australia. The statistical techniques derived in this project will enhance Australia’s capability in the national priority area of mathematical sciences, and will contribute to knowledge in a wide range of disciplines including natural resources, medicine and genetics. Read moreRead less
Expenditure needs and drawdown of retirement savings during later life: how important are demographic factors and financial resources? Projections of expenditure patterns in retirement which allow for population heterogeneity will provide individuals with a better appreciation of their income needs and their savings requirements for a comfortable retirement. It will also enable financial institutions to develop products which better target retirees' needs over the course of retirement, and in ad ....Expenditure needs and drawdown of retirement savings during later life: how important are demographic factors and financial resources? Projections of expenditure patterns in retirement which allow for population heterogeneity will provide individuals with a better appreciation of their income needs and their savings requirements for a comfortable retirement. It will also enable financial institutions to develop products which better target retirees' needs over the course of retirement, and in addition it will enable improved assessment of aspects of Government income support policy. Specifically, understanding the complex interactions between private and public pensions, and concession card receipt upon expenditure behaviour, will enable more accurate costings of the public support of elderly families as Australia's population ages. Read moreRead less
Modelling person and item parameters of computer administered problem solving strategies. The project extends previous SPIRT research, which modelled problem-solving in paper-and-pencil administered tasks, by examining the person and item parameters when problems are computer administered. The implications for computer administered problem design and teacher intervention will be explored and used to develop instructional packages that extend the materials produced for teachers in the initial SPI ....Modelling person and item parameters of computer administered problem solving strategies. The project extends previous SPIRT research, which modelled problem-solving in paper-and-pencil administered tasks, by examining the person and item parameters when problems are computer administered. The implications for computer administered problem design and teacher intervention will be explored and used to develop instructional packages that extend the materials produced for teachers in the initial SPIRT study.Read moreRead less
Congestion recovery and optimisation of patient flows. Australian public hospitals often experience congestion due to growing demand and limited resources, resulting in disruptions in service delivery and risks in quality of care. This project will apply advanced techniques and methodologies from mathematical sciences and computer modelling to alleviate this important healthcare delivery problem.
Robust next-generation detection techniques to defend operational networks against attacks. As networks are fast becoming one of the pillars of our society, network security is essential.
Without good security, networks will be unreliable, more costly, and restricted in the capabilities they can offer. The project will allow advanced anomaly and intrusion detection techniques to be used in the ultra-high speeds of the Internet core. It will provide the groundwork for the attack detection and p ....Robust next-generation detection techniques to defend operational networks against attacks. As networks are fast becoming one of the pillars of our society, network security is essential.
Without good security, networks will be unreliable, more costly, and restricted in the capabilities they can offer. The project will allow advanced anomaly and intrusion detection techniques to be used in the ultra-high speeds of the Internet core. It will provide the groundwork for the attack detection and prevention infrastructure of the future. Read moreRead less
Precise Atmospheric Density Correction Model Using Space Tracking Data for Accurate Debris Surveillance and Collision Warning. Our project will build new atmospheric density correction models (ADCMs) for accurate prediction of debris object and satellite orbits. This research will have tremendous impacts on realizing unaided debris laser ranging. An order of magnitude accuracy improvement to the ADCMs will lead to a significant breakthrough in space object tracking. The benefits of this research ....Precise Atmospheric Density Correction Model Using Space Tracking Data for Accurate Debris Surveillance and Collision Warning. Our project will build new atmospheric density correction models (ADCMs) for accurate prediction of debris object and satellite orbits. This research will have tremendous impacts on realizing unaided debris laser ranging. An order of magnitude accuracy improvement to the ADCMs will lead to a significant breakthrough in space object tracking. The benefits of this research are: it will put Australia in a leading position in the world on ADCM study; to maintain Australia's leading role in space surveillance and greatly enhanced operational capability & efficiency of Australian space tracking systems; and to contribute significantly to the space environment info management, e.g. accurate collision warning and space junk tracking.Read moreRead less
Statistical and mathematical modelling to improve health care outcomes in hospitals. The aim of this project is to develop new quantitative techniques based on mathematical and statistical modelling that improve the outcomes of health care in hospitals. Hospital outcomes for patients are sub-optimal due to adverse events such as hospital acquired infections and fully stretched facilities. Research from this project will lead to resource usage being optimised using operations research; the tra ....Statistical and mathematical modelling to improve health care outcomes in hospitals. The aim of this project is to develop new quantitative techniques based on mathematical and statistical modelling that improve the outcomes of health care in hospitals. Hospital outcomes for patients are sub-optimal due to adverse events such as hospital acquired infections and fully stretched facilities. Research from this project will lead to resource usage being optimised using operations research; the transmission of hospital acquired infections being better understood using mathematical models; and better monitoring of adverse events and analyses of studies using statistical tools. Opportunities will be provided for hospital staff to acquire knowledge of the significance of these outcomes .Read moreRead less