Assessing Water Supply Security in a Nonstationary Environment. About 25% of the global population currently has inadequate access to safe and secure water. This number is expected to rise to 50% by 2050 due to increased populations and reduced river flows. While a visible water crisis (such as the one in Cape Town in 2018) can culminate in the funding of new water supply infrastructure, a planned push for infrastructure augmentation often stalls due to contradictory projections of how much wate ....Assessing Water Supply Security in a Nonstationary Environment. About 25% of the global population currently has inadequate access to safe and secure water. This number is expected to rise to 50% by 2050 due to increased populations and reduced river flows. While a visible water crisis (such as the one in Cape Town in 2018) can culminate in the funding of new water supply infrastructure, a planned push for infrastructure augmentation often stalls due to contradictory projections of how much water will be available in the future. To address this, a novel alternative for assessing water security is proposed. Our approach assesses change using historical information on river flow and water demand, adapting these to form projections that exhibit greater reliability than currently existing alternatives.Read moreRead less
Urban flood modelling at speed and scale. Frequent floods in urban areas cause damages comparable to extreme floods. This is likely to intensify with future urbanisation and climate change. Although Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) offers sustainable urban drainage solutions, there are no models that can select an optimal WSUD system to deliver on a set urban flood mitigation target. The project aims to develop a new generation of fast urban flood models and the-first-of-its-kind WSUD plannin ....Urban flood modelling at speed and scale. Frequent floods in urban areas cause damages comparable to extreme floods. This is likely to intensify with future urbanisation and climate change. Although Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) offers sustainable urban drainage solutions, there are no models that can select an optimal WSUD system to deliver on a set urban flood mitigation target. The project aims to develop a new generation of fast urban flood models and the-first-of-its-kind WSUD planning tool to support industry and governments to effectively reduce the urban flooding damages. The project outcomes are also applicable for advancing early warning systems and real-time control of floods.Read moreRead less
Water availability and demand: better forecasts, better management. This project aims to improve Australia’s capability in the provision and use of water forecasts for managing water resources. The current water forecasts are not fully utilised by water agencies as they are not sufficiently comprehensive and advanced. This project expects to achieve a step change in the uptake and utility of hydro-climate forecasts through an extensive partnership of leading researchers and operational agencies ....Water availability and demand: better forecasts, better management. This project aims to improve Australia’s capability in the provision and use of water forecasts for managing water resources. The current water forecasts are not fully utilised by water agencies as they are not sufficiently comprehensive and advanced. This project expects to achieve a step change in the uptake and utility of hydro-climate forecasts through an extensive partnership of leading researchers and operational agencies of hydro-climate forecasting, with federal, state and regional water agencies.Read moreRead less
A new strategy for design flood estimation in a nonstationary climate. Evidence suggests that global warming will result in an increase in the frequency and/or magnitude of heavy rainfall, leading to flooding with potentially devastating consequences. This study provides a renewed focus on design flood estimation that takes into account a changing climate where assumptions of stationarity are no longer tenable.
A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed ....A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed research will develop a new Bayesian framework for simulating multi-time scale variability in hydrological data. This will enable the dynamic processes which simulate long-term variability to be identified using auxiliary information in an uncertainty framework. This will provide water resource planners with more accurate assessments of long-term drought risks.
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