An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with differen ....An Ensemble Modelling Framework for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments. An important issue facing the water sector is a rationale for modeling flows in catchments having no prior measurements. Current approaches for modeling flow in ungauged catchments assume a rigid specification which is adopted for all catchments, irrespective of differences in regions and soil types. We propose here a modeling philosophy that better characterises the variability in the flow generation mechanism, with different mechanisms being represented through different models in a probabilistic sense. We expect our approach to address the limitations of current schemes, and provide a much improved basis for estimating flows for design and management applications.Read moreRead less
Stochastic rainfall generation for design flow estimation. Floods cause one third of all natural disasters worldwide, more than half the fatalities and one-third the economic loss. Accurate design flood estimation can help alleviate this impact. The estimation procedure currently used assumes that a given rainfall leads to a corresponding design flood, negating the influence variations in pre-existing soil moisture conditions may have. An alternative that overcomes the above limitation is to use ....Stochastic rainfall generation for design flow estimation. Floods cause one third of all natural disasters worldwide, more than half the fatalities and one-third the economic loss. Accurate design flood estimation can help alleviate this impact. The estimation procedure currently used assumes that a given rainfall leads to a corresponding design flood, negating the influence variations in pre-existing soil moisture conditions may have. An alternative that overcomes the above limitation is to use stochastically generated rainfall series to simulate flows from which the design flood can be estimated. This study aims to develop a generic framework for stochastic generation of rainfall for design flood estimation in Australia.Read moreRead less
Efficient and Robust Prediction at Ungauged Catchments. Hydrological models are an integral part of virtually all environmental models formulated at the catchment scale. They are used in the planning, design and operation of water infrastructure. Despite the importance of these models limited rainfall and streamflow gauging forces these models to be routinely applied at ungauged locations where predictive power is poorly understood and almost always unsatisfactory. This project will directly ben ....Efficient and Robust Prediction at Ungauged Catchments. Hydrological models are an integral part of virtually all environmental models formulated at the catchment scale. They are used in the planning, design and operation of water infrastructure. Despite the importance of these models limited rainfall and streamflow gauging forces these models to be routinely applied at ungauged locations where predictive power is poorly understood and almost always unsatisfactory. This project will directly benefit model users by providing (a) robust framework for quantifying uncertainty and (b) improved predictions at ungauged basins. This will provide more realistic guidance for design engineers and policy makers and be of significant benefit to a large range of Australian water users.Read moreRead less
Developing a decision support system for the management of road runoff for water quality protection. Multiple stakeholders share a vested and often significant financial commitment to ensure water quality standards. These industries, in turn, are vital to the social and economic sustainability of many rural communities in Australia. Recent climatic trends of increasing drought episodes and related natural disasters such as bushfires are expected to increase the delivery of sediments and associat ....Developing a decision support system for the management of road runoff for water quality protection. Multiple stakeholders share a vested and often significant financial commitment to ensure water quality standards. These industries, in turn, are vital to the social and economic sustainability of many rural communities in Australia. Recent climatic trends of increasing drought episodes and related natural disasters such as bushfires are expected to increase the delivery of sediments and associated pollutants to streams. The proposed DSS will allow testing of various management scenarios with respect to road position and layout, thereby providing a planning and management tool, and a method to educate the practitioners involved in environmental management in Australia. Read moreRead less
TERRESIM: A simulation system for understanding and managing the interactions between runoff, vegetation, soils and climate in a changing environment. The landforms around us evolve in response to the processes of hydrology, erosion, climate and vegetation that develops on them. Likewise, the past behaviour of these processes (thus historical climatic fluctuations) in written in the deposited sediment. To study these interactions will be develop a state-of-the-art landform simulator (TerreSim). ....TERRESIM: A simulation system for understanding and managing the interactions between runoff, vegetation, soils and climate in a changing environment. The landforms around us evolve in response to the processes of hydrology, erosion, climate and vegetation that develops on them. Likewise, the past behaviour of these processes (thus historical climatic fluctuations) in written in the deposited sediment. To study these interactions will be develop a state-of-the-art landform simulator (TerreSim). We will use it to explore the evolution, development and sustainability of soils, vegetation, and hydrology (e.g. water supply) so as to better understand their response to climatic changes. We will also study rates of cliff retreat and debris flow in steep landscapes to better understand cliff stability.Read moreRead less
Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment And Facilities - Grant ID: LE0883113
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$250,000.00
Summary
A stable-isotope mass spectrometer for novel determinations of past temperatures. Much of the Australian landscape is subject to a dry and evaporative climate, making it very difficult to use conventional geochemical techniques to estimate past temperatures, even on short timescales of tens to hundreds of years. The application of a new isotopic technique to preserved carbonate minerals (soil carbonate, shells in rivers, lakes and the ocean) avoids the difficulty of this variable evaporation, an ....A stable-isotope mass spectrometer for novel determinations of past temperatures. Much of the Australian landscape is subject to a dry and evaporative climate, making it very difficult to use conventional geochemical techniques to estimate past temperatures, even on short timescales of tens to hundreds of years. The application of a new isotopic technique to preserved carbonate minerals (soil carbonate, shells in rivers, lakes and the ocean) avoids the difficulty of this variable evaporation, and directly measures past temperatures. This will have a profound effect on our understanding of environmental changes on both short and long time scales, and permit a better understanding of the hydrological balances within the landscape.Read moreRead less
Sediment stock-piling and the fate of Australian floodplains. Historic landuse practices have profoundly altered Australia's river systems in less than 200 years. Up to 80% of the sediment and associated pollutants eroded from Australia's catchments are stored in floodplains. The assumption that floodplains can continue to absorb the impacts of upland erosion and land degradation is extremely risky, yet it underpins current catchment management policies in Australia. This project delivers essent ....Sediment stock-piling and the fate of Australian floodplains. Historic landuse practices have profoundly altered Australia's river systems in less than 200 years. Up to 80% of the sediment and associated pollutants eroded from Australia's catchments are stored in floodplains. The assumption that floodplains can continue to absorb the impacts of upland erosion and land degradation is extremely risky, yet it underpins current catchment management policies in Australia. This project delivers essential data on floodplain storage and remobilisation rates using innovative sediment dating and tracing technologies. The significance of this research lies in its immediate relevance to rural industries and the management of Australian riverine and offshore ecosystems.
Read moreRead less
Multi-site generation of daily rainfall for catchment water management studies. This project aims to develop new approaches for stochastic generation of daily precipitation at multiple locations within a catchment. Traditional stochastic generators are found lacking at daily time-steps, offering a poor representation of observed distributional, seasonal and persistence characteristics. Ongoing research has resulted in approaches for generating daily rainfall at a single location that do not suff ....Multi-site generation of daily rainfall for catchment water management studies. This project aims to develop new approaches for stochastic generation of daily precipitation at multiple locations within a catchment. Traditional stochastic generators are found lacking at daily time-steps, offering a poor representation of observed distributional, seasonal and persistence characteristics. Ongoing research has resulted in approaches for generating daily rainfall at a single location that do not suffer from the above problems. This project will formulate approaches for rainfall generation at multiple locations within a catchment. The generated data will allow risk-based management and more reliable evaluation of the hydrologic, environmental and socioeconomic impacts of alternative water resource management planning scenarios.Read moreRead less
Multi-site probabilistic streamflow forecasting for water management applications. This project will develop methodologies for probabilistic forecasting of streamflow at multiple locations in a catchment. These probabilistic forecasts will be used to develop alternate reservoir operating policies that allow operators to use current climate information to maximise water supply at controlled levels of risk. The probabilistic forecasts will be formulated using data representing the regional and glo ....Multi-site probabilistic streamflow forecasting for water management applications. This project will develop methodologies for probabilistic forecasting of streamflow at multiple locations in a catchment. These probabilistic forecasts will be used to develop alternate reservoir operating policies that allow operators to use current climate information to maximise water supply at controlled levels of risk. The probabilistic forecasts will be formulated using data representing the regional and global climate, and validated retrospectively over time. Once completed, this research will provide a means for risk-based management and hence a more reliable evaluation of the hydrologic, environmental and socioeconomic impacts of alternative water resource management planning scenarios.Read moreRead less
A Stochastic Downscaling Framework for Catchment Scale Climate Change Impact Assessment. We propose a framework for climate change impact assessment at the catchment scale, that can both assess the change in catchment yield, as well as refine management policies to mitigate likely impacts. A key aim is to represent the full uncertainty in the simulated streamflow, thus enabling a risk-based comparison of current policies with those for climate change conditions. Given the importance of this rese ....A Stochastic Downscaling Framework for Catchment Scale Climate Change Impact Assessment. We propose a framework for climate change impact assessment at the catchment scale, that can both assess the change in catchment yield, as well as refine management policies to mitigate likely impacts. A key aim is to represent the full uncertainty in the simulated streamflow, thus enabling a risk-based comparison of current policies with those for climate change conditions. Given the importance of this research to the availability of water under a climate change scenario, this proposal has been listed under the ARC's Research Priority 1: 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia', with the specific priority goals being 'Water - A Critical Resource', and 'Responding to climate change and variability'.Read moreRead less