Coupling tropical cyclone and climate physics with ocean waves. It is argued that without accounting for the wave effects directly, the physics of large-scale air-sea interactions is inaccurate and incomplete. The project will introduce explicit coupling of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic phenomena with the physics of surface waves which should lead to improved predictions of tropical cyclones and climate.
Unsaturation of vapour pressure inside leaves: fundamental, but unknown. This project aims to determine when and to what extent the air inside leaves becomes unsaturated with water vapour. All current interpretation and modelling of leaf gas exchange assumes saturation under all circumstances. Compelling evidence has been obtained that suggests this is not true under moderate air vapour pressure deficits. A novel technique will be employed to assess the water vapour concentration of the air insi ....Unsaturation of vapour pressure inside leaves: fundamental, but unknown. This project aims to determine when and to what extent the air inside leaves becomes unsaturated with water vapour. All current interpretation and modelling of leaf gas exchange assumes saturation under all circumstances. Compelling evidence has been obtained that suggests this is not true under moderate air vapour pressure deficits. A novel technique will be employed to assess the water vapour concentration of the air inside leaves based on stable isotope analysis of carbon dioxide and water vapour exchanged between leaves and air. The project is expected to provide fundamental knowledge about how stomata regulate photosynthesis and water use, with significant implications for modelling vegetation function and for improving the performance of crop plants.Read moreRead less
Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set o ....Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set of nonlinearity tests to determine which type of nonlinear model provides the best representation of a data generating mechanism. Selected high frequency financial and macroeconomic data (for the US and Australia) will be used in the study. This research is intended to change the direction and emphasis of econometric modelling and promises to have a fundamental impact on forecasting and policy evaluation methods.
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State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised b ....State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised by production and/or demand uncertainty. The methods will be used to obtain improved estimates of rates of innovation and changes in the relative efficiency of selected Australian enterprises. The empirical results will inform National Competition Policy and the process of microeconomic reform.Read moreRead less
Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence ....Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence in our predictions of tropical cyclone incidence in a future, changed climate.Read moreRead less
Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less
The Consistency of Price Regulation of Infrastructure Businesses across Australian Jurisdictions. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy should be consistent across jurisdictions and industries. This project would offer policy and regulatory institutions quantitative analysis of the consistency of regulatory decisions across Australia. This research would develop a new database that would maintain and supply details on regulatory decision ....The Consistency of Price Regulation of Infrastructure Businesses across Australian Jurisdictions. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy should be consistent across jurisdictions and industries. This project would offer policy and regulatory institutions quantitative analysis of the consistency of regulatory decisions across Australia. This research would develop a new database that would maintain and supply details on regulatory decisions across jurisdictions and industries. This project would enable the new Australian Centre of Regulatory Economics (ACORE) to supply independent database and quantitative analysis from an open, fully documented, scholarly environment to Australia's policy and regulatory agencies and its regulated firms.Read moreRead less
Population Ageing and National Housing Demand in Australia. This project seeks to determine the likely impact of population ageing on the demand for housing in Australia. A seminal study for the U.S. predicted that the relative demand for, and therefore price of, housing will fall substantially in the next two or three decades due to population ageing. If this were to occur in Australia, it could have a significant impact on personal wealth, the national saving rate, employment and economic welf ....Population Ageing and National Housing Demand in Australia. This project seeks to determine the likely impact of population ageing on the demand for housing in Australia. A seminal study for the U.S. predicted that the relative demand for, and therefore price of, housing will fall substantially in the next two or three decades due to population ageing. If this were to occur in Australia, it could have a significant impact on personal wealth, the national saving rate, employment and economic welfare. This question will be addressed by extending two different types of models - an analytical model of optimal national saving and an econometric model of housing demand.Read moreRead less
The effect of native invasions on Australian fisheries species. This project aims to forecast climate-related changes in the diversity, distribution and abundance of fisheries species. In a changing world where many people depend on oceans for food and livelihood, predicting the future distribution of fisheries species is a challenge. Native invasions and ocean warming are stressing inshore fisheries species, but rigorous empirical data and models that can reliably forecast these effects are lac ....The effect of native invasions on Australian fisheries species. This project aims to forecast climate-related changes in the diversity, distribution and abundance of fisheries species. In a changing world where many people depend on oceans for food and livelihood, predicting the future distribution of fisheries species is a challenge. Native invasions and ocean warming are stressing inshore fisheries species, but rigorous empirical data and models that can reliably forecast these effects are lacking. This project intends to reveal the drivers of successful native invasions, evaluate their effect on fish diversity and productivity, and develop holistic models that forecast their effects on inshore fisheries species’ near-future distribution and stocks.Read moreRead less
Consistent Space-Time Comparisons of Real Income. The project will result in internationally comparable macroeconomic data, spanning all years since 1950 and covering in excess of 120 countries. The Australian government, private sector and academic researchers will find from this project a wealth of economic information on Australia, its geographical neighbours and trading partners which can be used in assessing Australia's economic performance and role in a global context. Results from this pr ....Consistent Space-Time Comparisons of Real Income. The project will result in internationally comparable macroeconomic data, spanning all years since 1950 and covering in excess of 120 countries. The Australian government, private sector and academic researchers will find from this project a wealth of economic information on Australia, its geographical neighbours and trading partners which can be used in assessing Australia's economic performance and role in a global context. Results from this project will provide international organisations, multinationals and researchers with a much improved data set, to those currently available, thus enhancing the reputation of the research team, the University of Queensland and Australia. Read moreRead less