Improved Ways To Study The Effect Of Transient Exposures On The Risk Of An Illness, With Application To Flying And DVT
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$212,250.00
Summary
Improved methods of analysis will be developed to estimate the extent to which certain short-term activities trigger a particular illness and to determine who is most at risk. The new methods of analysis have many potential applications, including study of the effect of periods of intense exercise or intense alcohol consumption on the risk of a heart attack. Here we apply them to study the effect of air travel on illness due to blood clots in a vein (deep vein thrombosis, DVT), and the factors t ....Improved methods of analysis will be developed to estimate the extent to which certain short-term activities trigger a particular illness and to determine who is most at risk. The new methods of analysis have many potential applications, including study of the effect of periods of intense exercise or intense alcohol consumption on the risk of a heart attack. Here we apply them to study the effect of air travel on illness due to blood clots in a vein (deep vein thrombosis, DVT), and the factors that put individuals at greatest risk. The extra understanding that our improved analysis of the data provides will accelerate research into ways to minimise the risk of flight-induced DVT and implementation of preventative measures in the travel industry. This has the potential to prevent many cases, and deaths, because the number of flights taken, globally, by individuals in a year is now in the billions. Specifically, dependence of flight-induced DVT on age, sex, being pregnant, recent fractures and having certain cancers will identify individuals at greatest risk, while dependence on the duration of the flight will identify flights that present greater risk. The development of these new methods of analysis will make a lasting contribution to public health research, because they can be used to study many short-term-activity - illnesses combinations. The methods will see increasing applications because the type of data they rely on, namely the complete history of exposures over time periods, will increasingly become available as electronic recording of activities becomes more common place. For example, electronic records of flights are now almost universal and bookings at squash courts and other sporting venues are increasingly recorded electronically. The computer software to apply the new methods of analysis will be made available to other researchers, to promote studies of this type.Read moreRead less
Statistical Methods To Assist The Control Of Communicable Diseases, And Their Application
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$211,527.00
Summary
A range of programs, such as vaccination schedules and intervention in outbreaks, is in place to reduce our burden of illness from infectious diseases. This project aims to develop new methods, based on models and associated statistical analyses, to help ensure that our control programs are based on the best available evidence. There are five specific themes: 1. Developed methods for predicting major outbreaks of diseases and appy them to Australian data on measles, pertussis and Ross River viru ....A range of programs, such as vaccination schedules and intervention in outbreaks, is in place to reduce our burden of illness from infectious diseases. This project aims to develop new methods, based on models and associated statistical analyses, to help ensure that our control programs are based on the best available evidence. There are five specific themes: 1. Developed methods for predicting major outbreaks of diseases and appy them to Australian data on measles, pertussis and Ross River virus. The new methods will enable timely intervention to reduce the population risk from these diseases, and to guide the proposed elimination of measles from Australia. 2. The current concept of vaccine efficacy, which is central to the epidemiological assessment of vaccines, performs poorly when the vaccine provides only partial protection, when immunity wanes over time and when infected vaccinees have a lower infectivity. A concept of vaccine efficacy will be developed that overcomes these weaknesses. This concept will find widespread use in epidemiology. 3. Data available from 80 outbreak investigations of transmissible diseases will be analysed to assess the relative effectiveness of various intervention steps. 4. A comprehensive model, and associated computer software, will be developed as a tool for assessing the relative merits of different vaccination schedules. It will be applied to address Australian policy issues for vaccination against pertussis, chickenpox and rubella. 5. The method of backprojection for estimating trends in HIV infection and predicting AIDS incidence will be enhanced to incorporate newly available data in which HIV and AIDS diagnoses are linked. This will enable a precise assessment of infection incidence among heterosexuals and other exposure categories with relatively few cases, to ensure that HIV does not spread more widely.Read moreRead less