Mathematical Modelling Of Bacterial Carriage In Children
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$421,746.00
Summary
Children exposed to larger numbers of other children are at risk of persistent bacterial infections. Such circumstances explain the high rates of ear and chest infections, and skin sores seen in children in historical times. Changing social circumstances (smaller families, better housing, nutrition and hygiene), as well as the introduction of antibiotics, explain the decline of such infections in affluent communities since the early 20th century. However, even today, in affluent countries, child ....Children exposed to larger numbers of other children are at risk of persistent bacterial infections. Such circumstances explain the high rates of ear and chest infections, and skin sores seen in children in historical times. Changing social circumstances (smaller families, better housing, nutrition and hygiene), as well as the introduction of antibiotics, explain the decline of such infections in affluent communities since the early 20th century. However, even today, in affluent countries, children attending group child care are at high risk of ear infections. As many bacteria are resistant, antibiotics are now much less effective than when they were first introduced. Furthermore, there is a continuing load of infection for children in Aboriginal communities, in PNG and other developing countries, causing hearing loss, chronic respiratory problems, and heart disease and renal disease in later life. Using data previously collected from other studies in Indigenous communities and children in child care, mathematical models allow us to ask what if?, and answer important public health questions: 1. What environmental and public health measures can reduce the cycle of cross-infection in child-care and high-risk populations? 2. What coverage rates with pneumococcal vaccine will eliminate the vaccine-specific bacteria from child care centres, from the wider community, and from high risk populations? 3. Will infections with bacteria not covered by vaccine then increase? 4. Will the resistant bacteria tend to disappear if antibiotic use is restricted? 5. Under what circumstances will antibiotics help to control infection? The modelling will promote understanding of the social and health costs of bacterial infection in Aboriginal communities and child care and use educational scenarios to promote uptake of the most cost-effective and socially acceptable interventions.Read moreRead less
Measuring uncertainty in global housing markets and its risk to Australia. This project aims to develop and construct a measure of systemic risk for the national real-estate markets in Australia, and its main trading partners, namely China, Japan, New Zealand, United Kingdom and United States of America. Recently developed methodology will be used to investigate how real estate risks migrate across these countries over time, and during periods of financial turbulence. This methodology is intende ....Measuring uncertainty in global housing markets and its risk to Australia. This project aims to develop and construct a measure of systemic risk for the national real-estate markets in Australia, and its main trading partners, namely China, Japan, New Zealand, United Kingdom and United States of America. Recently developed methodology will be used to investigate how real estate risks migrate across these countries over time, and during periods of financial turbulence. This methodology is intended to be employed as part of a market stability surveillance program and for assessing the impact of real-estate risk on the overall economy. Early detection of the onset of future housing bubble collapses would be of significant benefit to policy makers, Australia’s trading partners, the real estate industry and ultimately home buyers.Read moreRead less
Immunising Aboriginal Mothers With Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine To Prevent Infant Ear Disease And Carriage
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$1,131,530.00
Summary
Aboriginal children experience the highest rates of acute and chronic ear infections in the world, with resultant permanent ear damage, hearing loss and educational disadvantage. These infections are mainly bacterial, and Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is the predominant pathogen. Pneumococcal colonisation and infection begins within days of birth, many months before any potential immunological protection from infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccine may be expected. New strategies are nee ....Aboriginal children experience the highest rates of acute and chronic ear infections in the world, with resultant permanent ear damage, hearing loss and educational disadvantage. These infections are mainly bacterial, and Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is the predominant pathogen. Pneumococcal colonisation and infection begins within days of birth, many months before any potential immunological protection from infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccine may be expected. New strategies are needed to eliminate, or at least delay, this early-onset pneumococcal colonisation. One such strategy is the administration to the mother of pneumococcal vaccine, which may protect the newborn infant by leading to higher titres of transplacental or breast milk pneumococcal antibodies and-or by reducing carriage (and transmission to the infant) of maternal pneumococci. Previous small studies using this strategy have been encouraging, but there have been no studies properly evaluating carriage or disease endpoints in infants. The polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine is currently recommended for all Aboriginal and Torres Islander persons aged 15 years or more in the Northern Territory but uptake of the vaccine has been poor. We propose to conduct a pilot study to determine if maternal immunisation with this vaccine, either in the third trimester of pregancy of immediately following delivery, can reduce pneumococcal carriage and the prevalence of middle ear disease among Aboriginal infants at seven months of age. We aim to recruit 210 Aboriginal women who have uncomplicated pregnancies from Darwin and remote communities in the Top End of the Northern Territory. Each subject and their infant offspring will be followed-up after vaccination and at birth, one , two and seven months after birth.Read moreRead less
Impact Of DTP Schedules On The Immunogenicity Of 2 Doses Of 13v-PCV Followed By An Early Booster
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,651,687.00
Summary
This project aims to come up with a vaccination schedule to make pneumococcal vaccines more effective and affordable for Fiji and other developing countries. We will evaluate schedules involving a 2 dose primary series in early infancy with a booster at 9 months of age. We will compare the immune responses to 3 different primary series and 2 booster options. The results of this project will be used to provide advice, at global and country levels, regarding introduction of pneumococcal vaccines.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE190100840
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Monitoring financial bubbles using high-frequency data. This project aims to develop an econometric procedure for monitoring speculative behaviour, often labelled as bubbles, in financial markets. There has been widespread recognition that financial speculation can inflict harm on the real economy. Crises or recessions are often preceded by excessive asset market speculation. This project will utilise intraday information for bubble detection and address major technical challenges arising from h ....Monitoring financial bubbles using high-frequency data. This project aims to develop an econometric procedure for monitoring speculative behaviour, often labelled as bubbles, in financial markets. There has been widespread recognition that financial speculation can inflict harm on the real economy. Crises or recessions are often preceded by excessive asset market speculation. This project will utilise intraday information for bubble detection and address major technical challenges arising from high-frequency financial data. It is expected to significantly improve the speed and accuracy of bubble detection, thereby providing more timely and precise warning alerts for investment decisions, market surveillance and policy action.Read moreRead less
Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100795
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$365,000.00
Summary
New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important appl ....New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to ....Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to provide valuable information for policymakers for formulating macroeconomic policies. They can be used to better assess the credibility of monetary policy and shed light on the causes of low inflation rate in developed economies.Read moreRead less
Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the ....Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the potential to be a significant improvement in the real-time identification of emerging turmoil in financial markets and provide an improved method for the detection of systemic risk. The new test procedure will be implemented using data for financial and non-financial institutions across Europe, the US and Australia.Read moreRead less
Policy frameworks and market/non-market activity of young and older adults . The project intends to compare the social and economic participation of young adults and older people across nations to reveal best practice policy in engaging both ends of the age spectrum in productive activity. Population ageing has implications for the wellbeing and prosperity of both the older and younger generations. This project intends to investigate how contemporary young adults and older people spend their tim ....Policy frameworks and market/non-market activity of young and older adults . The project intends to compare the social and economic participation of young adults and older people across nations to reveal best practice policy in engaging both ends of the age spectrum in productive activity. Population ageing has implications for the wellbeing and prosperity of both the older and younger generations. This project intends to investigate how contemporary young adults and older people spend their time in productive activities across countries with contrasting policy frameworks. This may yield important policy-relevant information for Australia on how to both protect the old and invest in the young, while balancing financial sustainability and the principles of social justice and fairness.Read moreRead less