Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how like ....Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how likely they are to exceed key thresholds. It targets important scientific and practical issues such as the joint occurrence of gusts and high rainfall, role of gusts in contributing to dust and other airborne pollutants, impacts of gusts on subsequent storm activity, and gusts in a warming climate.Read moreRead less
Precipitation Events over Tasmania and their Response to Weather Modification. The ongoing cloud-seeding work undertaken by Hydro Tasmania will be investigated through a combination of fieldwork and numerical simulations. New instrumentation and advanced numerical models will allow this research to provide a new understanding of the precipitation events over Tasmania and their response to cloud seeding. This research will also explore the interaction between the background aerosol/pollution leve ....Precipitation Events over Tasmania and their Response to Weather Modification. The ongoing cloud-seeding work undertaken by Hydro Tasmania will be investigated through a combination of fieldwork and numerical simulations. New instrumentation and advanced numerical models will allow this research to provide a new understanding of the precipitation events over Tasmania and their response to cloud seeding. This research will also explore the interaction between the background aerosol/pollution level and the precipitation. Given the relatively pure nature of the air over Tasmania, this research will be of international interest. This research will also be of direct interest to Hydro Tasmania as insight gained into the precipitation events will allow us to optimise their cloud-seeding operation.Read moreRead less
Radar Studies of Rainfall with Applications to Forecasting. Weather watch radars are used to predict severe weather events, with echo strengths depending on the number of rain drops in the beam. With suitable calibration the echo intensities can be used to predict rainfall rates. In 2005 the Bureau of Meteorology will establish a new weather radar near Adelaide. We will compare rainfall estimates made with the new radar with results from a VHF profiler that accurately measures rain drop distribu ....Radar Studies of Rainfall with Applications to Forecasting. Weather watch radars are used to predict severe weather events, with echo strengths depending on the number of rain drops in the beam. With suitable calibration the echo intensities can be used to predict rainfall rates. In 2005 the Bureau of Meteorology will establish a new weather radar near Adelaide. We will compare rainfall estimates made with the new radar with results from a VHF profiler that accurately measures rain drop distributions and rainfall. The aim is to test the weather radar estimates of rainfall rates and their uncertainties. Outcomes will have applications in flood forecasting and hydrology.Read moreRead less
Will East Coast Lows change in frequency or intensity in the future? East Coast Lows, the largest storms on the south-east coast of Australia, produce both large benefits and losses for this highly populated region of the country. An urgent national priority exists to understand the driving mechanisms for these events and to quantify how the frequency and intensity of these systems will change due to climate change.
Predicting pollutant dispersion within the CBD. The accidental or pre-meditated release of hazardous gases and aerosols within an urban environment are potentially threatening to human life and safety. Emergency responders require adequate information to quickly address these concerns yet the lack of detailed observations and the complex nature of the dispersion make this task difficult. This project will collect detailed observations of tracer dispersion within the Perth central business distri ....Predicting pollutant dispersion within the CBD. The accidental or pre-meditated release of hazardous gases and aerosols within an urban environment are potentially threatening to human life and safety. Emergency responders require adequate information to quickly address these concerns yet the lack of detailed observations and the complex nature of the dispersion make this task difficult. This project will collect detailed observations of tracer dispersion within the Perth central business district and combine these observations with multiscale modelling to redefine appropriate emergency response models as well as their limits. Such analysis will enhance mitigation strategies.Read moreRead less
Assessing clouds and rainfall in Australia's community climate model - Towards an improved simulation of Australia's water resources. Climate change is likely to significantly affect Australia's water resources. A well-measured response to this challenge requires reliable projections of future climate using modern Earth System Models. By thoroughly evaluating Australia's community climate model this research will inform Australia's adaptation policy and through subsequent model development it wi ....Assessing clouds and rainfall in Australia's community climate model - Towards an improved simulation of Australia's water resources. Climate change is likely to significantly affect Australia's water resources. A well-measured response to this challenge requires reliable projections of future climate using modern Earth System Models. By thoroughly evaluating Australia's community climate model this research will inform Australia's adaptation policy and through subsequent model development it will contribute to significant improvements in our ability to understand and predict climate change. Through better informing water resource management the research constitutes an important contribution to an environmentally sustainable Australia. Read moreRead less
Monitoring and Predicting Frost Events in the Agricultural Area of WA. Frost is commonly ranked by farmers as the second most important climate risk after rainfall variability. Thus reliable nocturnal temperature forecasts are of paramount importance in understanding the potential for frost formation and enabling its timely prediction and detection. Such forecasts would allow appropriate active or passive management responses. Utilising the existing meteorological network of the Department of Ag ....Monitoring and Predicting Frost Events in the Agricultural Area of WA. Frost is commonly ranked by farmers as the second most important climate risk after rainfall variability. Thus reliable nocturnal temperature forecasts are of paramount importance in understanding the potential for frost formation and enabling its timely prediction and detection. Such forecasts would allow appropriate active or passive management responses. Utilising the existing meteorological network of the Department of Agriculture, this project aims to develop an integrated frost prediction system that will provide timely estimates of both the spatial and temporal extent of frost events for farmers and agribusiness.Read moreRead less
Precipitation in wintertime storms across southeast Australia, Tasmania and the Southern Ocean. The pristine conditions and strong wind-shear over the Southern Ocean affect the formation of precipitation in clouds over the region, which is vital to the water supply of southeastern Australia and Tasmania. This project will evaluate and improve the ability to simulate this precipitation, which will lead to better water resource management.
Oceanic Conditions within Extreme Tropical Cyclones. Australia's tropical and subtropical areas include major infrastructure projects such as the North West shelf oil and gas projects, major mining operations, export ports, natural environments such as the Great Barrier Reef and major tourism industries. All these industries are crucially impacted by extreme tropical cyclones. Despite the importance of these systems, our present understanding of tropical cyclones is incomplete. This project will ....Oceanic Conditions within Extreme Tropical Cyclones. Australia's tropical and subtropical areas include major infrastructure projects such as the North West shelf oil and gas projects, major mining operations, export ports, natural environments such as the Great Barrier Reef and major tourism industries. All these industries are crucially impacted by extreme tropical cyclones. Despite the importance of these systems, our present understanding of tropical cyclones is incomplete. This project will significantly enhance our ability to carry out accurate engineering design of critical offshore infrastructure, as well as marine forecasts in such environments. As such, the project will have major scientific, economic and social benefits for Australia.Read moreRead less
How does orography enhance precipitation in Australian wintertime storms? This project aims to employ targeted field observations, numerical simulations and new satellite capabilities to identify the dynamical and microphysical mechanisms that enhance and redistribute precipitation across the alpine regions of south eastern Australia and Tasmania. These observations will be used to evaluate operational numerical weather simulations specifically focusing on quantitative precipitation forecasts an ....How does orography enhance precipitation in Australian wintertime storms? This project aims to employ targeted field observations, numerical simulations and new satellite capabilities to identify the dynamical and microphysical mechanisms that enhance and redistribute precipitation across the alpine regions of south eastern Australia and Tasmania. These observations will be used to evaluate operational numerical weather simulations specifically focusing on quantitative precipitation forecasts and estimates. The observations will also be used to extend known biases in the national gridded precipitation analysis that are a result of the complex mountain terrain. This identification of the physical processes that enhance and redistribute precipitation over the alpine regions across south east Australia and Tasmania will lead to better precipitation estimates and forecasts and better water management.Read moreRead less