Statistical Methods For The Analysis Of Trends In Coronary Heart Disease
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$112,747.00
Summary
Coronary heart disease is a leading cause of mortality, morbidity and medical costs in Australia. During the 1950's and 1960's, rates of coronary disease increased rapidly, then in the late 1960's they started to decline. This decrease has continued steadily for 30 years. While some other westernised countries have had this same experience, in Eastern Europe and in many developing countries coronary disease is increasing. There is a huge amount of evidence from experimental studies in animal and ....Coronary heart disease is a leading cause of mortality, morbidity and medical costs in Australia. During the 1950's and 1960's, rates of coronary disease increased rapidly, then in the late 1960's they started to decline. This decrease has continued steadily for 30 years. While some other westernised countries have had this same experience, in Eastern Europe and in many developing countries coronary disease is increasing. There is a huge amount of evidence from experimental studies in animal and human subjects and population studies in many countries that the major determinants of coronary disease are high blood pressure, cigarette smoking and high cholesterol (and other lipids) as well as dietary factors, obesity and physical inactivity. Recently several large multicentre studies have found unexpectedly weaker associations between heart risk factors and disease rates. It is hypothesised that this is due to inappropriate analyses in which data from populations at different stages of the coronary epidemic have been combined. The aim of this study is to develop improved statistical methodology to help understand recent findings from large scale studies, such as the World Health Organization's MONICA Project, the US ARIC study and the Seven Countries study. It will provide new theoretical results and statistical software for their implementation. From a public health perspective the most important outcome will be clarification of recent apparently anomalous findings about the importance of established risk factors and effective treatments in reducing coronary disease at the population level.Read moreRead less
Improved Ways To Study The Effect Of Transient Exposures On The Risk Of An Illness, With Application To Flying And DVT
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$212,250.00
Summary
Improved methods of analysis will be developed to estimate the extent to which certain short-term activities trigger a particular illness and to determine who is most at risk. The new methods of analysis have many potential applications, including study of the effect of periods of intense exercise or intense alcohol consumption on the risk of a heart attack. Here we apply them to study the effect of air travel on illness due to blood clots in a vein (deep vein thrombosis, DVT), and the factors t ....Improved methods of analysis will be developed to estimate the extent to which certain short-term activities trigger a particular illness and to determine who is most at risk. The new methods of analysis have many potential applications, including study of the effect of periods of intense exercise or intense alcohol consumption on the risk of a heart attack. Here we apply them to study the effect of air travel on illness due to blood clots in a vein (deep vein thrombosis, DVT), and the factors that put individuals at greatest risk. The extra understanding that our improved analysis of the data provides will accelerate research into ways to minimise the risk of flight-induced DVT and implementation of preventative measures in the travel industry. This has the potential to prevent many cases, and deaths, because the number of flights taken, globally, by individuals in a year is now in the billions. Specifically, dependence of flight-induced DVT on age, sex, being pregnant, recent fractures and having certain cancers will identify individuals at greatest risk, while dependence on the duration of the flight will identify flights that present greater risk. The development of these new methods of analysis will make a lasting contribution to public health research, because they can be used to study many short-term-activity - illnesses combinations. The methods will see increasing applications because the type of data they rely on, namely the complete history of exposures over time periods, will increasingly become available as electronic recording of activities becomes more common place. For example, electronic records of flights are now almost universal and bookings at squash courts and other sporting venues are increasingly recorded electronically. The computer software to apply the new methods of analysis will be made available to other researchers, to promote studies of this type.Read moreRead less