Stable water isotopic simulation and analysis to improve Earth System models and deliver better predictions of Australian water resource vulnerability. As Australia's challenges in environmental sustainability rival those anywhere on Earth, we must be clever in our diagnosis of susceptibility and insightful in proposed remedies. Climate change and variability have impacts on people and society that must be managed effectively whatever their causes. Of importance to Australia is the availabilit ....Stable water isotopic simulation and analysis to improve Earth System models and deliver better predictions of Australian water resource vulnerability. As Australia's challenges in environmental sustainability rival those anywhere on Earth, we must be clever in our diagnosis of susceptibility and insightful in proposed remedies. Climate change and variability have impacts on people and society that must be managed effectively whatever their causes. Of importance to Australia is the availability of water for drinking and agriculture. The new, interdisciplinary ARC network for Earth System Science provides models for novel and synergistic research such as naturally occurring water isotopes as a tool for improving predictive skill and confidence. We exploit these and leverage international programs to improve regional hydro-climate and water resource understanding in Australia.Read moreRead less
A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed ....A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed research will develop a new Bayesian framework for simulating multi-time scale variability in hydrological data. This will enable the dynamic processes which simulate long-term variability to be identified using auxiliary information in an uncertainty framework. This will provide water resource planners with more accurate assessments of long-term drought risks.
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Optimal Source Control in Urban Water Cycle Management. Major opportunities exist to improve the management of the urban water cycle by better use of source control technology such as the use of rainwater tanks and water-sensitive design. This program will optimise the use of this technology at three scales, allotment, subdivision and regional, using genetic algorithms, parallel computing and shadow pricing. The aim is to minimise community lifecycle costs subject to sustainable use of ecosystem ....Optimal Source Control in Urban Water Cycle Management. Major opportunities exist to improve the management of the urban water cycle by better use of source control technology such as the use of rainwater tanks and water-sensitive design. This program will optimise the use of this technology at three scales, allotment, subdivision and regional, using genetic algorithms, parallel computing and shadow pricing. The aim is to minimise community lifecycle costs subject to sustainable use of ecosystems and maintenance of public health standards. The benefits include national savings of the order of $2 billion and significantly reduced demand on water supply and stormwater infrastructure and its supporting ecosystems.Read moreRead less
Modelling long-term hydrological persistence using hidden state Markov models. Long-term climatic persistence has a pronounced effect on engineering risk assessment of drought and flood severity. Accurate risk assessment is essential for economic design of water resource and flood defence infrastructure. A new, physically realistic, framework for stochastic modelling of persistence is developed, in which the probability distributions of hydrological variables depend on underlying climatic states ....Modelling long-term hydrological persistence using hidden state Markov models. Long-term climatic persistence has a pronounced effect on engineering risk assessment of drought and flood severity. Accurate risk assessment is essential for economic design of water resource and flood defence infrastructure. A new, physically realistic, framework for stochastic modelling of persistence is developed, in which the probability distributions of hydrological variables depend on underlying climatic states. These states are not directly observable, and occasionally change in a random manner. The research program, involving three PhD projects, will develop: estimation techniques and software using climate indices and multi-site data; a new approach to flood risk regionalisation; and seasonal rainfall forecasting methods.Read moreRead less
Derivation of long-term hydroclimatic sequences for water resources engineering, management and planning. This project aims to develop in-situ reconstructions of flood and drought occurrence in the Sydney Warragamba catchment. The unique approach will utilise two complementary methods to provide robust insights into historic variability at the location of interest. The derived sequences will be used to augment the instrumental record, the sole basis for current drought risk assessment. A key out ....Derivation of long-term hydroclimatic sequences for water resources engineering, management and planning. This project aims to develop in-situ reconstructions of flood and drought occurrence in the Sydney Warragamba catchment. The unique approach will utilise two complementary methods to provide robust insights into historic variability at the location of interest. The derived sequences will be used to augment the instrumental record, the sole basis for current drought risk assessment. A key outcome will be an accurate appreciation of long-term drought occurrence. This will also provide a stronger basis for utilising climate information in guiding day-to-day reservoir and water supply management. The proxy histories are of key importance in estimating future flood and drought risk assessments for water resources management and planning.Read moreRead less
Physical, Chemical and Radiative Characteristics of Australian Continental Aerosols. Australian desert dust, and the biomass burning aerosol particles produced in the top-end burning season, have the potential to impose an environmental burden not only on Australia, but also on the surrounding region. While most of the world's major aerosol types have been well studied in recent years, these two remain largely unknown. There are good reasons to believe that Australian aerosols are different from ....Physical, Chemical and Radiative Characteristics of Australian Continental Aerosols. Australian desert dust, and the biomass burning aerosol particles produced in the top-end burning season, have the potential to impose an environmental burden not only on Australia, but also on the surrounding region. While most of the world's major aerosol types have been well studied in recent years, these two remain largely unknown. There are good reasons to believe that Australian aerosols are different from many others. We therefore intend to fully characterize their relevant properties, so we may monitor them from space, and evaluate their environmental impacts.Read moreRead less
Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment And Facilities - Grant ID: LE0668400
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$100,000.00
Summary
A high-throughput stable isotope ratio mass spectrometer for water resource management and climate change studies. Cave speleothems are highly sensitive to climate and are widely used to investigate past climate variability. Many researchers in Australia are now employing speleothems to find out more about the long-term behaviour of the Australian climate system, especially regarding ENSO. However, progress is inhibited by a lack of appropriate instrumentation capable of meeting the unique deman ....A high-throughput stable isotope ratio mass spectrometer for water resource management and climate change studies. Cave speleothems are highly sensitive to climate and are widely used to investigate past climate variability. Many researchers in Australia are now employing speleothems to find out more about the long-term behaviour of the Australian climate system, especially regarding ENSO. However, progress is inhibited by a lack of appropriate instrumentation capable of meeting the unique demands of speleothem research. Our new mass spectrometer will provide precise, rapid and low-cost isotope analyses of speleothem samples, and in doing so generate exciting and important palaeoclimate data, particularly in the area of pre-instrumental rainfall histories.Read moreRead less
Unravelling Western Australia's Stormy Past - A Precisely-Dated Sediment Record of Cyclones over the past 7000 years. Australia has a vast coastline, much of which is vulnerable to cyclone impact. Clearly, historical human experience does not comprehend what the climate system is capable of in terms of epic storms. Our effort to understand the storm risks of the past is complicated by the limited length of the instrumental record which reaches back only 150 years of European settlement in tropic ....Unravelling Western Australia's Stormy Past - A Precisely-Dated Sediment Record of Cyclones over the past 7000 years. Australia has a vast coastline, much of which is vulnerable to cyclone impact. Clearly, historical human experience does not comprehend what the climate system is capable of in terms of epic storms. Our effort to understand the storm risks of the past is complicated by the limited length of the instrumental record which reaches back only 150 years of European settlement in tropical areas of Australia. This project will reconstruct the history of storms and cyclones using sedimentary signatures in Western Australia over the past 7000 years to assess storm and cyclone risks under changing future climates in a regional context.Read moreRead less
Dynamic networks in a patchy landscape: will species interactions adjust to increased climatic extremes? This project addresses pressing questions on how increased climatic extremes will affect species diversity in arid Australia, building on the longest ecological dataset available for the continent's vast but fragile inland landscapes. Our tests of key ideas about strong interactions among species, their role in building resilient communities and conserving biodiversity, will generate consider ....Dynamic networks in a patchy landscape: will species interactions adjust to increased climatic extremes? This project addresses pressing questions on how increased climatic extremes will affect species diversity in arid Australia, building on the longest ecological dataset available for the continent's vast but fragile inland landscapes. Our tests of key ideas about strong interactions among species, their role in building resilient communities and conserving biodiversity, will generate considerable international interest, while our focus on interactions of species at water sources will address knowledge gaps to inform best practice in managing converted pastoral lands. The results will contribute to retaining healthy functioning ecosystems, and the vital production systems they support, as the global climate changes.Read moreRead less