Back to the Future: Interglacial Warming and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet . The Antarctic is highly-sensitive to abrupt changes caused by the passing of tipping points within the climate system. Crucially, the instrumental record is too short to resolve major uncertainties surrounding future warming. The Last Interglacial (125,000 yrs ago) was 2°C warmer than today and experienced 6-11 m higher global sea levels. The role of Antarctica is vital for constraining sea-level projections. This Austra ....Back to the Future: Interglacial Warming and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet . The Antarctic is highly-sensitive to abrupt changes caused by the passing of tipping points within the climate system. Crucially, the instrumental record is too short to resolve major uncertainties surrounding future warming. The Last Interglacial (125,000 yrs ago) was 2°C warmer than today and experienced 6-11 m higher global sea levels. The role of Antarctica is vital for constraining sea-level projections. This Australian-led international project aims to determine the mechanisms and impacts of past interglacial Antarctic warming up to 2°C (relative to pre-industrial). Innovative techniques integrating horizontal ice cores and high resolution marine records will help identify polar tipping points and better plan for impacts in Australia.Read moreRead less
Risks of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic continental margin. This project aims to comprehensively understand the interconnected processes by which oceanic heat is circulated towards Antarctica. The risk of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic margin is profound, with change already detected via deep ocean warming, land-ice melt, and ice shelf collapse. Yet this region remains poorly understood, with only limited observations due to both a harsh environment and a lack of standard data stream ....Risks of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic continental margin. This project aims to comprehensively understand the interconnected processes by which oceanic heat is circulated towards Antarctica. The risk of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic margin is profound, with change already detected via deep ocean warming, land-ice melt, and ice shelf collapse. Yet this region remains poorly understood, with only limited observations due to both a harsh environment and a lack of standard data streams. This project will use high-resolution global and regional ocean/sea-ice models to examine mechanisms for rapid warming of Antarctic continental shelf waters via both large-scale drivers and fine-scale processes, including mesoscale eddies, tide-topography interactions, and bottom boundary flows. This work will better constrain future rates of ice melt around Antarctica by providing vital knowledge of the ocean processes, dynamics, and feedbacks relating to warm water intrusion onto the Antarctic continental shelf.Read moreRead less
The Great Barrier Reef in 2100. Our research aims to answer fundamental geomorphic questions about the future of coral reefs, focusing on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We will develop cutting-edge, fully open-source numerical models to quantify the eco-morphodynamic evolution of the GBR under IPCC climate-change scenarios. Our geomorphic numerical models will consider biotic/abiotic feedbacks including synergistic effects of multiple stressors such as waves, temperature, acidification and sedime ....The Great Barrier Reef in 2100. Our research aims to answer fundamental geomorphic questions about the future of coral reefs, focusing on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We will develop cutting-edge, fully open-source numerical models to quantify the eco-morphodynamic evolution of the GBR under IPCC climate-change scenarios. Our geomorphic numerical models will consider biotic/abiotic feedbacks including synergistic effects of multiple stressors such as waves, temperature, acidification and sediment transport, at individual reef scales. We will model the future of the GBR’s ecosystem-services, allowing for a quantum leap in the geomorphic knowledge and understanding of coral reef ecosystems. Expected outcomes include a gamechanger tool for future management of the GBR.Read moreRead less
Shaping a sunburnt country: fire, climate and the Australian landscape. Fire shapes Australia’s landscape, biodiversity and resources. This project aims to quantify the recent history of fire intensity and severity using several novel proxies in the fire-prone landscapes of south-eastern Australia. Calibration of these new proxies to recent wildfires will be used for a better characterisation of fire regimes. This research will be applied to sedimentary archives to investigate how fire regimes h ....Shaping a sunburnt country: fire, climate and the Australian landscape. Fire shapes Australia’s landscape, biodiversity and resources. This project aims to quantify the recent history of fire intensity and severity using several novel proxies in the fire-prone landscapes of south-eastern Australia. Calibration of these new proxies to recent wildfires will be used for a better characterisation of fire regimes. This research will be applied to sedimentary archives to investigate how fire regimes have evolved over the past 100 years. The outcomes will inform debates about the relationship between climatic variability and fire severity, and this will contribute to increase the preparedness of natural resource management to potential future climate and land-use scenarios.Read moreRead less
Will rivers be smaller when the climate is hotter? This project aims to investigate how large rivers are affected by changing atmospheric temperature. Large inland rivers are the main source of water supporting ecological functions, economies and societies. This project will quantify the size and age of abandoned river channels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of southeast Australia and the Atuel/Diamante basin of Argentina. We will use this to reconstruct a history of changes in river discharg ....Will rivers be smaller when the climate is hotter? This project aims to investigate how large rivers are affected by changing atmospheric temperature. Large inland rivers are the main source of water supporting ecological functions, economies and societies. This project will quantify the size and age of abandoned river channels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of southeast Australia and the Atuel/Diamante basin of Argentina. We will use this to reconstruct a history of changes in river discharge and relate this to climate. Novel climate and hydrological modelling will then be used to simulate the impact of temperature changes on catchment runoff and river discharge. Such information is vital for decision-making, planning and water resource allocation in the MDB and elsewhere. Read moreRead less
Global climate change and coastal landscape evolution in southern Australia. This project aims to reconstruct environmental changes that occurred in southern Australia during a geologically recent time interval termed the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition (1.2 million to 700 thousand years ago) and an interglacial period some 400,000 years ago. Using innovative geochronological, geochemical and modelling techniques, the environmental changes that shaped modern Australian coastal landscapes, in ....Global climate change and coastal landscape evolution in southern Australia. This project aims to reconstruct environmental changes that occurred in southern Australia during a geologically recent time interval termed the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition (1.2 million to 700 thousand years ago) and an interglacial period some 400,000 years ago. Using innovative geochronological, geochemical and modelling techniques, the environmental changes that shaped modern Australian coastal landscapes, including the intensification of aridity and their timing will be examined. The project will yield new knowledge about the sensitivity of landscapes to current and ongoing environmental changes and derive explanatory models of the rates and characteristics of landscape response to assist future coastal environmental management.Read moreRead less
Pushing the envelope: does range size limit eucalypt tolerance to warming? This project aims to characterise the biogeographic constraints on the physiological flexibility of eucalypts to accommodate climate warming. Do temperature tolerances of diverse taxa vary predictably with native geographic range sizes and climate of origin? In addressing this question, the project expects to generate new knowledge on the comparative physiological responses of diverse eucalypt taxa to warming and heat wav ....Pushing the envelope: does range size limit eucalypt tolerance to warming? This project aims to characterise the biogeographic constraints on the physiological flexibility of eucalypts to accommodate climate warming. Do temperature tolerances of diverse taxa vary predictably with native geographic range sizes and climate of origin? In addressing this question, the project expects to generate new knowledge on the comparative physiological responses of diverse eucalypt taxa to warming and heat waves using controlled-environment studies and a unique facility at Western Sydney University for heat wave studies of large trees. Expected outcomes include an enhanced capacity to predict carbon exchange and growth responses of native trees to climate warming over large geographic scales.Read moreRead less
Earthquake biases in measurements of Antarctica's sea-level contribution. This project aims to accurately determine Antarctica’s contribution to present-day sea-level. Large technique-specific systematic errors make this uncertain and controversial with the sign of change not agreed. Three of four measurement techniques rely on knowing the solid earth's changing shape or gravity field. Studies have not considered post-seismic deformation, but GPS data show that Antarctica has deformed since the ....Earthquake biases in measurements of Antarctica's sea-level contribution. This project aims to accurately determine Antarctica’s contribution to present-day sea-level. Large technique-specific systematic errors make this uncertain and controversial with the sign of change not agreed. Three of four measurement techniques rely on knowing the solid earth's changing shape or gravity field. Studies have not considered post-seismic deformation, but GPS data show that Antarctica has deformed since the 1998 Magnitude-8.2 Antarctic Plate Earthquake. This project will develop a model of these earthquakes constrained by geodetic data and use the model to estimate Antarctica's contribution to sea-level change. This should enable more confident local, national and international planning. This will benefit society through reducing the sea-level projection uncertainty.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
East Antarctica: subglacial heat flux constraints for ice sheet modelling. This project aims to quantify the heat flux from the East Antarctic continent into the base of the ice sheet via the derivation of a large geochemical database, together with elevation-based modelling and new heat flux measurements in regions formerly contiguous with East Antarctica. This subglacial heat flux is poorly constrained in current ice sheet models, but directly affects ice sheet behaviour. The output of this pr ....East Antarctica: subglacial heat flux constraints for ice sheet modelling. This project aims to quantify the heat flux from the East Antarctic continent into the base of the ice sheet via the derivation of a large geochemical database, together with elevation-based modelling and new heat flux measurements in regions formerly contiguous with East Antarctica. This subglacial heat flux is poorly constrained in current ice sheet models, but directly affects ice sheet behaviour. The output of this project will be a greatly improved heat flux map for East Antarctica that can be used in ice sheet modelling studies. This should drive significant improvement in models for the evolution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, resulting in more accurate projections of ice discharge and associated sea level change.Read moreRead less