Frontiers of Risk Modelling: Dependence and Extremes of Levy Processes. This project plans to continue an ongoing theoretical study into continuous-time stochastic processes, concentrating on developing tools for the further analysis and understanding of extremal and multivariate phenomena with applications to portfolio analysis, value-at risk calculations and complex financial instruments, with particular emphasis on practical applications of the methodologies in the insurance and finance indus ....Frontiers of Risk Modelling: Dependence and Extremes of Levy Processes. This project plans to continue an ongoing theoretical study into continuous-time stochastic processes, concentrating on developing tools for the further analysis and understanding of extremal and multivariate phenomena with applications to portfolio analysis, value-at risk calculations and complex financial instruments, with particular emphasis on practical applications of the methodologies in the insurance and finance industries. Expected outcomes would be of direct interest to these industries as well as having significant mathematical interest.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE120101426
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Understanding industrialisation, entrepreneurship, and technology adoption in emerging economies: new evidence from historical Japanese firms. Japan's pre-war industrialisation is widely used as a model by emerging economies, despite a lack of detailed data. This project provides a new firm-level dataset from hitherto unused archives, which allows empirical testing of theories about entrepreneurial activity, technology adoption, financial access, and other determinants of economic growth.
Understanding online attention and user-generated content creation: An information consumption and production perspective. There is a strong practical need for methods for understanding and measuring online behaviour. In this project, economic index number theory will be used to study information consumption, leading to new ways of measuring online attention and influence. Techniques for studying scaling relationships in the physical world will be used to study information production, leading to ....Understanding online attention and user-generated content creation: An information consumption and production perspective. There is a strong practical need for methods for understanding and measuring online behaviour. In this project, economic index number theory will be used to study information consumption, leading to new ways of measuring online attention and influence. Techniques for studying scaling relationships in the physical world will be used to study information production, leading to new insights into the efficiency of production of user-generated content. The project will contribute to understanding how social media such as Twitter contribute to social unrest and affect consumer decisions, and how distributed online collaboration can produce economically-valuable information resources such as Wikipedia.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130101605
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$289,000.00
Summary
Composing machine learning via market mechanisms. This project aims to better understand connections between learning algorithms and markets as aggregators of information and develop new, principled techniques for combining predictions. This will improve our ability to construct systems that make predictions based on multiple, complex and structured sources of data.
Adaptive economic management of Australia's urban water. This project responds to the so-called 'wicked problem' of ensuring an adequate supply of water to urban consumers at the lowest price even during long-term droughts. The project will generate, for the first time in the world, an integrated, dynamic, and adaptive supply and demand model to manage urban water optimally over time.
J.G. Crawford: Shaping Australia's Place in the World. Through a study of Sir John Grenfell (J.G.) Crawford, this project will examine transformations in Australian policy during the middle decades of the twentieth century. Crawford was a leading member of a generation of public servants who recast the practices of government, in this case through a particular focus on Australia's role in our region and among developing countries.
Advancing resilience theory and practice for water resource management. Water resources in Australia and worldwide are under severe stress, for example from drought and water demand. This project aims to investigate how water and other natural resources can be managed to build resilience to such stresses. The project expects to develop advances in resilience theory that generate new model-based tools for resilient decision-making. These advances will be tested in a model of water resource manage ....Advancing resilience theory and practice for water resource management. Water resources in Australia and worldwide are under severe stress, for example from drought and water demand. This project aims to investigate how water and other natural resources can be managed to build resilience to such stresses. The project expects to develop advances in resilience theory that generate new model-based tools for resilient decision-making. These advances will be tested in a model of water resource management in north-central Victoria. Expected outcomes of the project include increased decision-maker capability to respond to threats to water and other natural resources. Such outcomes will help ensure the sustainability of increasingly highly stressed natural resources in Australia and worldwide.Read moreRead less
Innovative financing mechanisms for higher education. Advances in statistical modelling are used to highlight the potential to apply creatively income contingent loans for the expansion of Australian and international higher education. Alternative student loan mechanisms for income support and tuition are critically analysed, and new arrangements are proposed for equitable reforms in higher education.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100795
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$365,000.00
Summary
New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important appl ....New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to ....Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to provide valuable information for policymakers for formulating macroeconomic policies. They can be used to better assess the credibility of monetary policy and shed light on the causes of low inflation rate in developed economies.Read moreRead less