Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100693
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$405,458.00
Summary
Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy. The project aims to measure and understand the drivers of the financial cycle. As unsustainable financial conditions, such as excess credit, tend to precede financial cycle busts, which often eventuate into recessions, the project aims to also shed light on the interaction between the financial cycle and macroeconomy. These aims are expected to be achieved through the application of a new set of econometric tools to estimate and interpret financial cycles. ....Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy. The project aims to measure and understand the drivers of the financial cycle. As unsustainable financial conditions, such as excess credit, tend to precede financial cycle busts, which often eventuate into recessions, the project aims to also shed light on the interaction between the financial cycle and macroeconomy. These aims are expected to be achieved through the application of a new set of econometric tools to estimate and interpret financial cycles. The expected outcomes of this project include new insights for institutions such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and should provide significant benefit through the appropriate design of macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Statistical Analysis of State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers. This project aims to provide a new statistical analysis of the government spending multiplier by acknowledging that government spending is the sum of sectoral spending which has heterogeneous effects on the economy. An added complication is that the multiplier can also be state-dependent, meaning that its magnitude can differ across recessions and expansions. Expected outcomes of this project include a better understanding ....Statistical Analysis of State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers. This project aims to provide a new statistical analysis of the government spending multiplier by acknowledging that government spending is the sum of sectoral spending which has heterogeneous effects on the economy. An added complication is that the multiplier can also be state-dependent, meaning that its magnitude can differ across recessions and expansions. Expected outcomes of this project include a better understanding of the components of the multiplier by novel decomposition and the development of a new statistical test for the state-dependency of the multiplier. This should provide significant benefits to researchers by bringing in new tools and insights and to policymakers by providing timely guidance on fiscal policies.Read moreRead less
New Insights on Modelling Time Trends with Panel Data: Theory and Practice. This project aims to tackle important challenges in time trend modelling by taking advantage of panel data structures. This project expects to propose flexible models in time trend modelling to retrieve reliable inference. The expected outcomes include innovative econometric models and methods that have a wide range of applications, and are particularly suited for empirical problems within large and complex systems. This ....New Insights on Modelling Time Trends with Panel Data: Theory and Practice. This project aims to tackle important challenges in time trend modelling by taking advantage of panel data structures. This project expects to propose flexible models in time trend modelling to retrieve reliable inference. The expected outcomes include innovative econometric models and methods that have a wide range of applications, and are particularly suited for empirical problems within large and complex systems. This will provide significant benefits to all fields in which data displays any form of trending behaviour. The proposed model is used to evaluate the economic consequences of climate change and global housing market contagion, which provide strong evidence-based insights to the environmental and economic policies in Australia.Read moreRead less
Fair pricing of superannuation guaranteed benefits with downturn risk. Australians have more than $2.7 trillion in superannuation assets, meaning that Australia is the fourth largest holder of pension fund assets worldwide. Hence the impact of market fluctuations on financial well-being of retirees can be detrimental, especially during market downturns associated with economic crises. The finance industry addresses this issue by complementing variable annuities with riders designed to protect th ....Fair pricing of superannuation guaranteed benefits with downturn risk. Australians have more than $2.7 trillion in superannuation assets, meaning that Australia is the fourth largest holder of pension fund assets worldwide. Hence the impact of market fluctuations on financial well-being of retirees can be detrimental, especially during market downturns associated with economic crises. The finance industry addresses this issue by complementing variable annuities with riders designed to protect the income stream of retirees. This project aims to develop a novel approach to fair pricing and optimal withdrawals and surrender policies for superannuation guaranteed benefit products through a comprehensive analysis of complex optimisation problems in stochastic models of financial markets with downturn risk.Read moreRead less
Decentralised assets trading, centralised clearing and systemic risk. This project aims to study the effect of regulating over-the-counter (OTC) financial markets on economic performance. The lack of transparency of OTC financial markets may have exacerbated the severity of the 2007-09 financial crisis. In response, regulators around the world decided to mandate centralised clearing of derivatives traded OTC, believing this would reduce system-wide risk. This project will study the regulatory ch ....Decentralised assets trading, centralised clearing and systemic risk. This project aims to study the effect of regulating over-the-counter (OTC) financial markets on economic performance. The lack of transparency of OTC financial markets may have exacerbated the severity of the 2007-09 financial crisis. In response, regulators around the world decided to mandate centralised clearing of derivatives traded OTC, believing this would reduce system-wide risk. This project will study the regulatory change’s effects on market participation, volumes of trade and prices, and the behavioural effect of shifting risk from market participants to clearinghouses. It expects to suggest remedial policies clearinghouses could implement to control market participants’ risk appetite. These can help enhance future productivity and reduce unemployment in Australia.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE210100137
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$347,889.00
Summary
Global Economic Uncertainty, Liquidity and Monetary Policy in Australia. This project aims to analyse the impact of global trade and financial uncertainty on the Australian economy and provide quantifiable policy prescriptions. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of monetary and macroeconomic policy using an innovative approach with search and matching frictions, to formalise how investors respond to higher uncertainty given their liquidity requirements. The intended outco ....Global Economic Uncertainty, Liquidity and Monetary Policy in Australia. This project aims to analyse the impact of global trade and financial uncertainty on the Australian economy and provide quantifiable policy prescriptions. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of monetary and macroeconomic policy using an innovative approach with search and matching frictions, to formalise how investors respond to higher uncertainty given their liquidity requirements. The intended outcomes of the project include offering a new theory with the potential to guide future research and novel quantitative application to Australian macroeconomic data. This should provide significant insights for institutions such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and benefits through the design of policy.Read moreRead less
Can green investors drive the transition to a low emissions economy? The project aims to develop a game-theoretical approach to model the impact of climate change on financial markets by studying the interactions between the government, companies and investors. Expected outcomes include novel solution concepts for stochastic games with heterogeneous beliefs, asymmetric information, and model uncertainty, as well as optimal investment and production strategies under climate driven economic transi ....Can green investors drive the transition to a low emissions economy? The project aims to develop a game-theoretical approach to model the impact of climate change on financial markets by studying the interactions between the government, companies and investors. Expected outcomes include novel solution concepts for stochastic games with heterogeneous beliefs, asymmetric information, and model uncertainty, as well as optimal investment and production strategies under climate driven economic transitions. Results will be used to validate and improve the recently launched Australian based climate transition index. The project should yield significant benefits for the financial industry and investors by providing novel insights into financial risks during the transition to a low emissions economy.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100896
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$427,008.00
Summary
How to beat model uncertainty with more information. Experience of the 2008 financial crisis exposed a weakness in our over-reliance on mathematical models. The main aim of this project is to develop mathematical tools to investigate the role of information in reducing model uncertainty. The project will undertake pressing research in robust finance, which is now one of the most active and dynamic topics in financial mathematics. It expects to quantify the value of information under uncertainty ....How to beat model uncertainty with more information. Experience of the 2008 financial crisis exposed a weakness in our over-reliance on mathematical models. The main aim of this project is to develop mathematical tools to investigate the role of information in reducing model uncertainty. The project will undertake pressing research in robust finance, which is now one of the most active and dynamic topics in financial mathematics. It expects to quantify the value of information under uncertainty in mathematical modelling. It will generate new knowledge in probability theory and stochastic processes providing a significant mathematical contribution in its own right.Read moreRead less
High-frequency Estimation of Term Structure Models at the Zero Lower Bound. This project aims to quantify monetary policy shocks as shifts of the entire term structure of interest rates, when the central bank’s policy rate is constrained at the near-zero level. The proposed method will use a high-dimensional panel of high frequency government bond data. The term structure and resultant policy shocks estimated at intra-day frequencies for major economies including Australia, will be made publicly ....High-frequency Estimation of Term Structure Models at the Zero Lower Bound. This project aims to quantify monetary policy shocks as shifts of the entire term structure of interest rates, when the central bank’s policy rate is constrained at the near-zero level. The proposed method will use a high-dimensional panel of high frequency government bond data. The term structure and resultant policy shocks estimated at intra-day frequencies for major economies including Australia, will be made publicly available. This project expects to deepen our understanding of how monetary policy decisions affect the macroeconomy in a near-zero interest-rate environment. This should provide significant benefits to policymakers for implementing and monitoring monetary policy in achieving desired economic outcomes.Read moreRead less
Measuring the effect of monetary policy on the economy. This project aims to measure the effect of monetary policy on the economy, notably consumption and investment, in Australia and the US. This research intends to fill a gap in the empirical macroeconomic literature, which focuses on the supply side of the economy. This project will account for unstable economic conditions caused by institutional or behavioural changes, such as financial development / liberalisation and preference shocks, in ....Measuring the effect of monetary policy on the economy. This project aims to measure the effect of monetary policy on the economy, notably consumption and investment, in Australia and the US. This research intends to fill a gap in the empirical macroeconomic literature, which focuses on the supply side of the economy. This project will account for unstable economic conditions caused by institutional or behavioural changes, such as financial development / liberalisation and preference shocks, in the analysis; and develop econometric methods tailored for application to models with time varying parameters. This project expects to contribute to understanding the economy’s recent unresponsiveness to monetary policy.Read moreRead less