Risks of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic continental margin. This project aims to comprehensively understand the interconnected processes by which oceanic heat is circulated towards Antarctica. The risk of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic margin is profound, with change already detected via deep ocean warming, land-ice melt, and ice shelf collapse. Yet this region remains poorly understood, with only limited observations due to both a harsh environment and a lack of standard data stream ....Risks of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic continental margin. This project aims to comprehensively understand the interconnected processes by which oceanic heat is circulated towards Antarctica. The risk of rapid ocean warming at the Antarctic margin is profound, with change already detected via deep ocean warming, land-ice melt, and ice shelf collapse. Yet this region remains poorly understood, with only limited observations due to both a harsh environment and a lack of standard data streams. This project will use high-resolution global and regional ocean/sea-ice models to examine mechanisms for rapid warming of Antarctic continental shelf waters via both large-scale drivers and fine-scale processes, including mesoscale eddies, tide-topography interactions, and bottom boundary flows. This work will better constrain future rates of ice melt around Antarctica by providing vital knowledge of the ocean processes, dynamics, and feedbacks relating to warm water intrusion onto the Antarctic continental shelf.Read moreRead less
The last glaciation maximum climate conundrum and environmental responses of the Australian continent to altered climate states. This project will show how climate systems in south east Australia responded to large scale global change the last time this happened, which was about 21,000 years ago. By determining the climate response in Australia to this change, this project will help predict future response in rainfall and temperature to human-induced and natural climate change.
Earthquake biases in measurements of Antarctica's sea-level contribution. This project aims to accurately determine Antarctica’s contribution to present-day sea-level. Large technique-specific systematic errors make this uncertain and controversial with the sign of change not agreed. Three of four measurement techniques rely on knowing the solid earth's changing shape or gravity field. Studies have not considered post-seismic deformation, but GPS data show that Antarctica has deformed since the ....Earthquake biases in measurements of Antarctica's sea-level contribution. This project aims to accurately determine Antarctica’s contribution to present-day sea-level. Large technique-specific systematic errors make this uncertain and controversial with the sign of change not agreed. Three of four measurement techniques rely on knowing the solid earth's changing shape or gravity field. Studies have not considered post-seismic deformation, but GPS data show that Antarctica has deformed since the 1998 Magnitude-8.2 Antarctic Plate Earthquake. This project will develop a model of these earthquakes constrained by geodetic data and use the model to estimate Antarctica's contribution to sea-level change. This should enable more confident local, national and international planning. This will benefit society through reducing the sea-level projection uncertainty.Read moreRead less
Quantifying sea-level trends and extremes along Australia's coastal margin. Multi-decadal changes in sea-level, and sea-level extremes, cannot be well quantified along most global coastlines, including Australia's, because the high spatial variability of sea-level is under-sampled by the sparse set of long, high quality tide gauge records. Satellite altimetry provides an alternative data source with greater spatial sampling, yet experiences contamination from land within tens of kilometres from ....Quantifying sea-level trends and extremes along Australia's coastal margin. Multi-decadal changes in sea-level, and sea-level extremes, cannot be well quantified along most global coastlines, including Australia's, because the high spatial variability of sea-level is under-sampled by the sparse set of long, high quality tide gauge records. Satellite altimetry provides an alternative data source with greater spatial sampling, yet experiences contamination from land within tens of kilometres from the coast and also suffers from regionally correlated biases. This project proposes to address these problems through re-tracking radar altimetry waveforms to derive new data in the coastal margin, enabling the production of new inferences on sea-level change and extremes at dramatically improved spatial resolution around Australia.Read moreRead less
East Antarctica: subglacial heat flux constraints for ice sheet modelling. This project aims to quantify the heat flux from the East Antarctic continent into the base of the ice sheet via the derivation of a large geochemical database, together with elevation-based modelling and new heat flux measurements in regions formerly contiguous with East Antarctica. This subglacial heat flux is poorly constrained in current ice sheet models, but directly affects ice sheet behaviour. The output of this pr ....East Antarctica: subglacial heat flux constraints for ice sheet modelling. This project aims to quantify the heat flux from the East Antarctic continent into the base of the ice sheet via the derivation of a large geochemical database, together with elevation-based modelling and new heat flux measurements in regions formerly contiguous with East Antarctica. This subglacial heat flux is poorly constrained in current ice sheet models, but directly affects ice sheet behaviour. The output of this project will be a greatly improved heat flux map for East Antarctica that can be used in ice sheet modelling studies. This should drive significant improvement in models for the evolution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, resulting in more accurate projections of ice discharge and associated sea level change.Read moreRead less
Flooding in Australia – are we properly prepared for how bad it can get? This project aims to investigate how floods have varied over the past 2000 years. Floods are a recurrent and natural part of Australia’s hydroclimate and are influenced strongly by climate variability. However, these influences are not yet completely understood or accounted for. This project will use novel insights from 2000 years of climate reconstructions to generate new knowledge about how bad flooding can get and what c ....Flooding in Australia – are we properly prepared for how bad it can get? This project aims to investigate how floods have varied over the past 2000 years. Floods are a recurrent and natural part of Australia’s hydroclimate and are influenced strongly by climate variability. However, these influences are not yet completely understood or accounted for. This project will use novel insights from 2000 years of climate reconstructions to generate new knowledge about how bad flooding can get and what causes flood frequency to change over time. A decision-making framework that allows for all the uncertainties associated with managing floods will also be developed. This will provide a critical evaluation of the accuracy of existing flood estimates, and also the reliability of infrastructure and policy based on those estimates.Read moreRead less
The role of Eastern Antarctic polynyas in global ocean circulation. This project aims to study Antarctic polynyas, an important, but poorly observed marine habitat, which profoundly influence the global climate. The major water masses of the world's oceans are formed there, making a large contribution to the ocean heat and carbon dioxide uptake. This study will collect data on ocean properties to 2000m from polynyas in eastern Antarctica throughout the Antarctic winter. The outcomes will be the ....The role of Eastern Antarctic polynyas in global ocean circulation. This project aims to study Antarctic polynyas, an important, but poorly observed marine habitat, which profoundly influence the global climate. The major water masses of the world's oceans are formed there, making a large contribution to the ocean heat and carbon dioxide uptake. This study will collect data on ocean properties to 2000m from polynyas in eastern Antarctica throughout the Antarctic winter. The outcomes will be the provision of data of critical importance to oceanographic and climate studies.Read moreRead less
Southern Ocean Sea Ice – what happened and what happens next? This project will adress our lack of confidence in future projections of sea ice around Antarctica by elucidating the mechanisms controlling sea ice in the Southern Ocean.
There is low confidence is current sea ice projections, limiting our ability to predict ice shelf melt and sea level rise.
This project will lead to a detailed understanding of the future of sea ice in the Southern Ocean, improving our understanding of ocean dynam ....Southern Ocean Sea Ice – what happened and what happens next? This project will adress our lack of confidence in future projections of sea ice around Antarctica by elucidating the mechanisms controlling sea ice in the Southern Ocean.
There is low confidence is current sea ice projections, limiting our ability to predict ice shelf melt and sea level rise.
This project will lead to a detailed understanding of the future of sea ice in the Southern Ocean, improving our understanding of ocean dynamics, ice shelf melt, and sea level rise.
The results from this project will enhance projections of sea ice, and therefore also ice shelf melt and sea level rise. Improved sea level projections will aid policy decisions for coastal communities.Read moreRead less
Dynamic resilience and stability properties of marine systems: the importance of environment-engineer feedbacks in kelp forests. Kelp forests form complex habitats that support diverse, productive and economically important food-webs. This project will determine whether healthy kelp forests engineer their environment to make conditions more suitable for their continued recruitment and survivorship, thus increasing their stability and resilience in response to anthropogenic threats.
Using animal-borne sensors to unravel East Antarctic coastal productivity. This project will examine the mechanisms underpinning the high productivity in Antarctic coastal polynyas, which are ice-free oases within the sea ice supporting abundant marine life. The study expects to generate essential new biochemical and biological observations using autonomous platforms to understand phytoplankton dynamics in these inaccessible habitats along Australia’s Antarctic Territory. Expected outcomes inclu ....Using animal-borne sensors to unravel East Antarctic coastal productivity. This project will examine the mechanisms underpinning the high productivity in Antarctic coastal polynyas, which are ice-free oases within the sea ice supporting abundant marine life. The study expects to generate essential new biochemical and biological observations using autonomous platforms to understand phytoplankton dynamics in these inaccessible habitats along Australia’s Antarctic Territory. Expected outcomes include novel insight into the role of iron supply from melting glaciers in supporting marine production. This should reduce the high uncertainty in prognoses for polynya activity under anthropogenic climate change, and support Australia’s international leadership in conservation and management of important Antarctic ecosystems.Read moreRead less