Threshold models in micro-econometrics with applications to empirical models of health. The aim of this project is to develop and apply new statistical approaches to endogenously identify non-linear relationships between explanatory variable(s) and the response variable in non-linear econometric models and to illustrate these with applications important to empirical health economics. Literature proliferates in linear models with non-linear effects, but in health economics non-linear models domin ....Threshold models in micro-econometrics with applications to empirical models of health. The aim of this project is to develop and apply new statistical approaches to endogenously identify non-linear relationships between explanatory variable(s) and the response variable in non-linear econometric models and to illustrate these with applications important to empirical health economics. Literature proliferates in linear models with non-linear effects, but in health economics non-linear models dominate. This project will generalise these techniques to allow for various forms of the threshold variable(s), including categorical and continuous, endogenous and exogenous, and those measured with error.Read moreRead less
Improving likelihood estimators: theory and applications to analysing productivity and efficiency and forecasting of probability of economic recession. This project aims to improve one of the most popular statistical methods to empower applied researchers with a more reliable analytical tool. This project will develop mathematical theory and use it to analyse patterns of economic growth, productivity and efficiency of countries. This can be used to forecast probability of entering economic reces ....Improving likelihood estimators: theory and applications to analysing productivity and efficiency and forecasting of probability of economic recession. This project aims to improve one of the most popular statistical methods to empower applied researchers with a more reliable analytical tool. This project will develop mathematical theory and use it to analyse patterns of economic growth, productivity and efficiency of countries. This can be used to forecast probability of entering economic recession, with a focus on Australia.Read moreRead less
Understanding and Modelling Weather Derivatives in Australia for the Purpose of their Accurate Pricing: a Statistical and Econometric Investigation. Australia suffers some of the most adverse and extreme weather globally. Its government and industries, especially agriculture and electricity, stand to benefit from improved understanding of weather derivatives and capability to price them accurately. Tailored to Australian weather scenarios, weather derivatives will be tools to manage local risk f ....Understanding and Modelling Weather Derivatives in Australia for the Purpose of their Accurate Pricing: a Statistical and Econometric Investigation. Australia suffers some of the most adverse and extreme weather globally. Its government and industries, especially agriculture and electricity, stand to benefit from improved understanding of weather derivatives and capability to price them accurately. Tailored to Australian weather scenarios, weather derivatives will be tools to manage local risk factors, and increase global competitiveness by hedging against competitors' good weather-related advantage. The US weather derivative market, capitalised at over US$7.5b, began just 7 years ago; there is no organised Australian market. This project's smart techniques for improving pricing accuracy will support the development and vigorous growth of a local market.Read moreRead less
New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticip ....New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticipated outcomes of this project will be detailed knowledge of extremal behaviour in portfolios, improved methods for calibrating risk, advances in non-parametric methods in finance, a prototype practitioner toolkit for assessing risk, and high-calibre graduates to contribute to Australia's research capacity.Read moreRead less
Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as vo ....Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as volatility in price series, extremal (risky) behaviour of financial systems, and turning points of the business cycle. Discoveries will be disseminated through published papers and presentations at a major international conference. Ongoing e-research links with France will also be established.Read moreRead less
Modelling Income Distributions over Space and Time: 1985-2010. The aim of this project is to develop and use interpolation and extrapolation methods, designed to overcome data scarcity, to estimate annual income distributions for countries, regions and the world for the period 1985 to 2010, facilitating measurement and comparison of changes in inequality, per capita income, poverty, and pro-poor growth, at national, regional and global levels. Reliable estimates of these welfare measures provide ....Modelling Income Distributions over Space and Time: 1985-2010. The aim of this project is to develop and use interpolation and extrapolation methods, designed to overcome data scarcity, to estimate annual income distributions for countries, regions and the world for the period 1985 to 2010, facilitating measurement and comparison of changes in inequality, per capita income, poverty, and pro-poor growth, at national, regional and global levels. Reliable estimates of these welfare measures provide valuable information for policy advisors and other researchers interested in growth and welfare of society.Read moreRead less
Understanding Dynamic Aspects of Economic Inequality. This project aims to study dynamic aspects of inequality in Australia by exploring the changes in labour and housing market conditions and their relation to the changes in the distribution of income and wealth over the last decade. The project also aims to develop new econometric techniques to examine the factors that are responsible for the changes in the distribution of income and wealth and a range of labour and housing market outcomes. Pa ....Understanding Dynamic Aspects of Economic Inequality. This project aims to study dynamic aspects of inequality in Australia by exploring the changes in labour and housing market conditions and their relation to the changes in the distribution of income and wealth over the last decade. The project also aims to develop new econometric techniques to examine the factors that are responsible for the changes in the distribution of income and wealth and a range of labour and housing market outcomes. Particular attention will be paid to the role of the changes in individual-specific characteristics (such as education, age, employment status, and occupation) and neighbourhood-specific characteristics (such as house prices and population ageing) in producing inequality.Read moreRead less
The importance of price and perceived quality to the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables. It is estimated that the direct and indirect cost of diet-related diseases to Australia is between $2-3 billion per annum. One of the most important things that can be done to prevent diet-related disease is to encourage the population to eat more fruits and vegetables. The aim of this project is to examine the effect of price and perceived quality on the type and quantity of fruits and vegetables cons ....The importance of price and perceived quality to the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables. It is estimated that the direct and indirect cost of diet-related diseases to Australia is between $2-3 billion per annum. One of the most important things that can be done to prevent diet-related disease is to encourage the population to eat more fruits and vegetables. The aim of this project is to examine the effect of price and perceived quality on the type and quantity of fruits and vegetables consumed, especially among low-income households. The project will employ modelling techniques that are novel to this product group and that will provide valuable insights to the constraints and opportunities for increasing fruits and vegetables intake, as well as benchmarks for future research.Read moreRead less
Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and internati ....Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and international competitiveness. Innovative methods driven by data from complex financial and geological systems will integrate price volatility risk and orebody uncertainty in a real options framework, providing holistic, rigorous measurement of mining venture risk. Xstrata Queensland Ltd will strongly support and participate in research training of an identified candidate to deliver discoveries to the wider industry.Read moreRead less
Robust Productivity Measurement: An Econometric Distance Function Approach. Accurate measures of productivity are required in a range of economic analyses. For example, in the assessment of the success of microeconomic reforms, or in price-cap regulation of utility and transport infrastructure firms. In this project we investigate the use of econometric distance functions as a means of obtaining improved productivity measures. This new approach addresses the main criticisms of alternative ap ....Robust Productivity Measurement: An Econometric Distance Function Approach. Accurate measures of productivity are required in a range of economic analyses. For example, in the assessment of the success of microeconomic reforms, or in price-cap regulation of utility and transport infrastructure firms. In this project we investigate the use of econometric distance functions as a means of obtaining improved productivity measures. This new approach addresses the main criticisms of alternative approaches, such as the single output restriction in the production function approach, the optimisation assumptions embedded in both the value dual approach and the Törnqvist index approach, and the statistical noise criticism of the data envelopment analysis approach.Read moreRead less