Risk prediction models incorporating multiple risk factors (including genetic markers) are a recognised method to identify individuals at high risk of developing breast or colorectal cancer, but it is uncertain which model(s) currently perform best in a population setting. We aim to compare the predictive ability of each available model. Knowing which model performs best will facilitate early diagnosis, reduce overall costs by better targeting interventions and improve cancer survival.
Increased Mortality Risk Following Osteoporotic Fractures: Data From Dubbo Epidemiology Study And A Consortium Of International Epidemiological Studies
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$316,449.00
Summary
Osteoporotic fractures affect 1 in 2 women and 1 in 3 men over 60 and result in significant disability and premature mortality. Yet, less than 20% of those affected are treated. One of the reasons for this neglect is an uncertainty surrounding the fracture mortality association. This study will explore the magnitude and causes of this association and the effect of treatment on its prevention in a large multinational study. If positive, this evidence will boost osteoporosis treatment.
Predicting The Individual Risk Of Prostate Cancer In Australian Men
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$348,656.00
Summary
Prostate cancer is a major cause of disability and death in Australian men. A number of factors, particularly age and family history, influence the risk of prostate cancer but, in contrast to breast cancer, we don't know what is the risk of developing prostate cancer over a period of time for a man with a specific set of risk factors. In fact, while a number of statistical models have been developed that use a woman's risk factor profile to estimate her risk of breast cancer, none is currently a ....Prostate cancer is a major cause of disability and death in Australian men. A number of factors, particularly age and family history, influence the risk of prostate cancer but, in contrast to breast cancer, we don't know what is the risk of developing prostate cancer over a period of time for a man with a specific set of risk factors. In fact, while a number of statistical models have been developed that use a woman's risk factor profile to estimate her risk of breast cancer, none is currently available for prostate cancer. We will apply standard statistical methods to existing data from the Australian Risk Factors for Prostate Cancer study and from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare to develop a prostate cancer risk prediction model. We will test how factor like age, detailed family history, diet, baldness status and possibly previous PSA tests and prostate biopsies predict the risk. After developing the model, we will test the accuracy of the predictions in three ways. First, using existing data from the Australian Prostate Cancer Family Study, we will see whether the number of cases in a group of men is close to the number predicted by the model (calibration). Second, to test whether the model discriminate well men who develop prostate cancer from those who do not, we will collect family trees in a sample from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. We will use these data also to estimate the optimal cut point: men above this level of risk will be considered at high risk. Third, we will apply the model to existing data from the Dutch Prostate Cancer Family Study (DPCFS) to test whether the optimal cut point identify high-risk men and to validate the model in a non-Australian population. Finally, we will prepare a computer package that health professionals will use as decision-making tool in different scenarios including individual cancer risk assessment, design of prevention trials and targeting prevention programs to high-risk men.Read moreRead less
Quantifying The Microbial Health Risks Of Expanded Alternative Water Use
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$305,496.00
Summary
Addressing current and future water shortages requires substitution of high quality drinking water with alternative water sources for an expanded range of purposes. However, potential adverse health effects must be avoided. This project measures health risks associated with a variety of alternative water sources and water use combinations. Project outputs will help determine appropriate requirements for water treatment and help refine guidelines to ensure that water use is safe.
Notifications To The Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency: Identifying ‘hot Spots’ Of Risk To Help Improve The Quality And Safety Of Healthcare
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$276,072.00
Summary
Health practitioners with performance, health or conduct concerns can present a serious risk to patients. Yet we lack reliable methods for identifying these practitioners at an early stage. Each year the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency receives 1,000s of notifications about individual practitioners. We will use this data to identify “hot spots” of risk among different groups of practitioners and help target interventions to support practitioners and protect patients from harm.
Although the major risk factors for cardiovascular diseases have been known for decades, and modern-day treatment is much advanced, the importance of these diseases persists, such that they remain the number one killer in Australia. This suggests that more can be done to correctly identify those at high and moderate risk of future disease, so as to optimize advice and medical treatment. This project will use the best evidence available to develop new methods of risk prediction and prevention.
Clostridium Difficile: Assessing The Risks To Australia Of An Emerging Healthcare-related Pathogen
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$1,180,256.00
Summary
Clostridium difficile is a bacterium that causes inflammation of the large bowel that can lead to surgical removal of the bowel or death. In North America and Europe, an international epidemic strain has caused large outbreaks of severe, fatal disease. In 2009, this strain was identified for the first time in Perth, Australia. We will investigate strains currently present in Brisbane and Perth and risk of outbreaks occurring from imported and local strains.
Use Of Statistical And Mathematical Models To Investigate Infectious Disease Transmission Dynamics To Better Inform Control Measures In Hospitals And The Community
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$408,388.00
Summary
Globally tuberculosis infects over 9 million people yearly. In low incidence countries TB is re-emerging, with HIV, drug resistance and migration driving this. Australia needs to examine the transmission of TB within our country and The Asia-Pacific region. This proposal will quantify the risk for importation of highly drug resistant TB into Australia and assess the factors that lead to outbreaks. Models will be informative for Australian TB policy development and contribute to regional and glob ....Globally tuberculosis infects over 9 million people yearly. In low incidence countries TB is re-emerging, with HIV, drug resistance and migration driving this. Australia needs to examine the transmission of TB within our country and The Asia-Pacific region. This proposal will quantify the risk for importation of highly drug resistant TB into Australia and assess the factors that lead to outbreaks. Models will be informative for Australian TB policy development and contribute to regional and global efforts for TB control.Read moreRead less